Virtual-Ear — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$33

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.7%

Resolved

Trades

236

lifetime

Volume

$3.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 08-11 11:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

85% 100% +$43

Politics

8% 0% $-10

Sports

7% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in munich on april 16 2026 16c	11	$385	204	204	+0	open	—	04-16 13:23
highest temperature in munich on april 14 2026 12c	15	$337	206	166	+40	open	—	04-14 14:15
highest temperature in munich on april 15 2026 12c	14	$262	131	150	-19	open	—	04-15 11:27
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	11	$239	159	102	+57	Yes	+$8	04-22 07:48
highest temperature in munich on april 15 2026 11c	13	$180	100	86	+14	open	—	04-15 10:09
highest temperature in munich on april 15 2026 15c	14	$174	100	100	+0	open	—	04-15 15:27
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	6	$171	90	110	-20	Yes	+$21	05-08 18:24
highest temperature in munich on april 16 2026 15c	8	$165	106	60	+46	open	—	04-16 11:54
highest temperature in munich on april 14 2026 13c	7	$148	100	50	+50	open	—	04-14 12:26
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	7	$134	71	71	+0	open	—	05-31 23:49
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	4	$113	59	59	+0	Yes	+$3	05-05 05:28
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$101	53	53	+0	open	—	04-30 05:59
highest temperature in munich on april 15 2026 16corhigher	7	$96	61	39	+22	open	—	04-15 14:00
highest temperature in munich on april 14 2026 11c	6	$95	50	50	+0	open	—	04-14 12:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$93	53	53	+0	open	—	04-30 05:58
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$82	47	47	+0	open	—	05-12 09:25
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	3	$71	20	60	-40	open	—	07-15 06:29
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	3	$60	32	32	+0	open	—	07-31 18:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	5	$59	31	31	+0	open	—	05-29 21:36
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$54	30	30	+0	No	+$0	04-15 09:21
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$46	34	34	+0	Yes	+$6	04-30 06:14
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	3	$44	50	0	+50	open	—	08-03 06:27
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$43	192	192	+0	open	—	04-15 20:14
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	2	$40	22	22	+0	open	—	04-12 14:27
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	3	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	07-31 18:42
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	06-19 02:56
will wti reach 115 in august 2026	2	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	08-05 06:32
Fed rate hike in 2026?	3	$36	42	42	+0	open	—	07-13 12:51
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$33	19	19	+0	open	—	04-13 10:54
Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	4	$30	14	34	-20	Yes	+$1	05-05 07:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 11:57:40	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xe8d084…
08-06 16:08:54	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x0513d3…
08-05 17:29:51	Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x732c80…
08-05 08:50:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xa4fa60…
08-05 06:32:51	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xbafa1c…
08-03 06:27:53	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x859555…
07-31 21:57:17	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xebd974…
07-31 18:42:45	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2c90bd…
07-31 18:33:45	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x6dacca…
07-31 15:18:23	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x967c9a…
07-30 20:45:41	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes	SELL	44	15¢	$7	0x2d1a46…
07-30 16:10:14	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x014631…
07-30 13:27:14	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbb59d4…
07-30 13:26:30	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x90866e…
07-30 13:21:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xb4e352…
07-30 12:12:35	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes	SELL	67	15¢	$10	0x3f5373…
07-29 20:20:39	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x1ca3e6…
07-29 18:45:44	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb22146…
07-27 09:10:24	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x806eae…
07-17 07:29:40	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x5dae44…
07-17 07:29:16	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xc5cd66…
07-15 08:57:10	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x0f3964…
07-15 06:29:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0xce80d7…
07-14 13:51:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x2f87a1…
07-13 12:51:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	42	41¢	$17	0xa4685d…
07-09 07:21:58	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	11¢	$4	0xf7b3e6…
07-09 07:09:53	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0xc49da9…
07-02 12:12:43	will russia capture borova by december 31 2026	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x79d102…
07-01 07:38:13	will argentina dollarize by december 31 2026 20260628214554778	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xcf7f40…
07-01 07:36:40	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xf9e446…
07-01 06:57:47	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xf62049…
06-30 18:23:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xb55d68…
06-29 04:15:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xb7953e…
06-25 12:39:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x59c4d8…
06-19 06:13:53	will kylian mbappe score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144023007	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x9fb041…
06-19 06:13:05	will vinicius jrpt score 3 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145257759	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x81fa2c…
06-19 06:12:25	will christian pulisic score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611150649592	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x7d6f91…
06-19 02:56:32	Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x186a94…
06-17 18:47:58	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Portugal	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x100ba3…
06-15 09:42:28	will japan reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134488	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x0efad7…
06-15 09:22:12	Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2aa32d…
06-12 03:41:18	Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xf1e1fd…
06-11 13:38:45	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Portugal	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x3a1025…
06-10 22:39:36	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 spread home 1pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x83373d…
06-10 20:14:21	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 spread home 1pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x996990…
06-10 19:44:36	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 spread home 1pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x47c3cd…
06-10 12:52:09	Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xd9f627…
06-10 12:38:33	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	Spain	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x0f4eca…
06-10 06:59:33	Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x7327b7…
06-10 06:58:46	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xcd917f…
06-09 14:59:18	Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x78080e…
06-08 09:55:27	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x942bcb…
06-08 08:21:09	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x9af8ae…
06-04 09:39:33	Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x39e491…
05-31 23:49:25	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0x65fd7d…
05-30 16:23:55	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x6143fa…
05-29 21:36:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x018e14…
05-18 14:46:08	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x5677b4…
05-16 20:56:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x69536f…
05-14 03:48:48	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xd30f03…
05-13 22:04:26	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$9	0x37a813…
05-13 18:32:09	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x77d038…
05-13 15:01:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x097d04…
05-13 14:42:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x3b0c5a…
05-12 09:25:47	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	47	88¢	$42	0xe04daa…
05-12 08:54:21	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x8a99dd…
05-11 10:32:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x4fb396…
05-08 18:24:19	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xde8e05…
05-05 07:57:58	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	Yes	SELL	24	75¢	$18	0x462791…
05-05 07:38:48	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x572b17…
05-05 07:27:52	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	No	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xccf3a3…
05-05 07:22:02	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xff6fd8…
05-05 05:28:48	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	100¢	$58	0x1a4a0d…
04-30 06:14:36	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	34	75¢	$26	0x0d6ff5…
04-30 06:10:12	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x56a81a…
04-30 05:59:14	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xa7c0db…
04-30 05:59:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x317340…
04-30 05:58:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xa09a46…
04-29 08:30:48	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9b6848…
04-27 15:12:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x2e7695…
04-27 14:17:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x7f1a2f…
04-27 11:45:30	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x159ea4…
04-26 18:32:50	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x4f8198…
04-23 21:41:06	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x621c54…
04-23 15:04:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x610d3e…
04-23 15:01:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x0e5bd7…
04-23 07:48:38	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xe5fb68…
04-23 07:44:26	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x7d3510…
04-22 13:07:04	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xffa451…
04-22 07:48:22	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xdef018…
04-22 06:31:28	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x225e66…
04-22 06:31:22	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xa4c222…
04-20 11:39:34	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x7d1041…
04-20 06:38:46	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x4748b1…
04-17 01:20:08	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x73054f…
04-16 15:55:08	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0x450b73…
04-16 15:42:52	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x6cbd7b…
04-16 14:58:46	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xe1f44f…
04-16 14:39:28	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x57b66f…
04-16 14:10:34	highest temperature in munich on april 16 2026 17c	No	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x674e37…