Polished-Ear — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

34.8%

Resolved

Trades

135

lifetime

Volume

$3.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$53

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 07-08 08:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$1

Politics

38% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+44	$42	99¢	$43	+$1	07-08 08:07
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No		+11	$10	88¢	$10	$-0	07-08 08:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	44	$1.7K	1,428	1,428	+0	open	—	03-05 04:10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	39	$785	964	964	+0	open	—	03-05 03:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$540	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-07 08:52
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$147	170	290	-120	open	—	04-07 08:49
btc updown 15m 1775540700	1	$89	90	0	+90	open	—	04-07 05:59
eth updown 15m 1775539800	1	$88	89	0	+89	open	—	04-07 05:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	3	$75	79	0	+79	open	—	05-22 02:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	3	$75	76	0	+76	open	—	05-22 03:59
wti up or down on july 8 2026	3	$54	50	50	+0	open	—	07-08 08:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$42	44	0	+44	open	—	07-08 08:07
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$37	23	23	+0	No	$-2	04-07 05:39
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	1	$21	24	0	+24	open	—	04-07 09:01
will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-27 00:40
tsla close above 390 on march 5 2026	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-05 11:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$1	03-18 18:31
gpt 5pt4 released by march 16	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-05 04:55
gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	1	$18	25	0	+25	open	—	03-05 12:50
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-23 01:28
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	4	$17	23	0	+23	open	—	04-07 10:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	1	$16	20	0	+20	open	—	05-22 22:31
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	1	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	05-23 06:40
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	03-05 02:31
will denmark join the board of peace	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-05 02:31
ethereum above 1800 on july 8 2026	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	07-08 08:05
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	07-08 08:06
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	07-08 08:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	05-22 22:28
will spacex have exactly 10 launches in january	1	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	01-27 00:43
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	01-27 00:41
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	01-27 00:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 08:07:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0xd6bbaf…
07-08 08:06:55	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x8166f4…
07-08 08:06:26	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x712f1e…
07-08 08:05:08	ethereum above 1800 on july 8 2026	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x0c1afd…
07-08 08:01:19	wti up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	50	53¢	$26	0xba0ec6…
07-08 07:55:35	wti up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	48	56¢	$27	0xf91170…
07-08 07:54:19	wti up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x3b93b8…
05-23 06:40:08	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x45a58c…
05-23 01:28:38	Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x979c0f…
05-22 22:31:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x6586ef…
05-22 22:28:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xaef041…
05-22 04:58:26	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x669717…
05-22 04:27:45	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xb389a1…
05-22 03:59:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xdd360f…
05-22 03:59:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x1ec4d6…
05-22 03:59:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2c3ca0…
05-22 02:59:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x71f386…
05-22 02:59:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x1088da…
05-22 02:59:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x1e186e…
04-07 10:14:43	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$11	0x476498…
04-07 10:14:01	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa3508c…
04-07 10:05:37	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x48ed21…
04-07 09:42:39	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x987885…
04-07 09:01:45	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	BUY	24	88¢	$21	0x02cd3f…
04-07 08:52:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	1,500	18¢	$270	0x96b089…
04-07 08:49:43	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	290	32¢	$93	0xac3874…
04-07 08:48:09	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	170	32¢	$54	0x1afc33…
04-07 08:47:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	855	18¢	$154	0x1e55f6…
04-07 08:47:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	645	18¢	$116	0xbc17b6…
04-07 06:51:15	nba mil bkn 2026 04 07 total 220pt5	Under	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x07ef79…
04-07 06:26:27	nba mil bkn 2026 04 07 total 220pt5	Under	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x352eaa…
04-07 05:59:45	btc updown 15m 1775540700	Down	BUY	90	98¢	$89	0x9ee78e…
04-07 05:44:13	eth updown 15m 1775539800	Down	BUY	89	100¢	$88	0xcdb6ea…
04-07 05:39:53	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	23	77¢	$18	0x437dc6…
03-18 18:31:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x025b2e…
03-07 08:38:31	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	23	84¢	$19	0x872fcf…
03-05 12:50:33	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	Yes	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0xebd7ad…
03-05 11:54:07	tsla close above 390 on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x2c7a05…
03-05 04:55:05	gpt 5pt4 released by march 16	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x95b8bc…
03-05 04:10:13	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	501	84¢	$419	0x6655c3…
03-05 04:09:01	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	19	84¢	$16	0x94fdc3…
03-05 04:09:01	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x004a24…
03-05 04:08:57	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xf4887a…
03-05 04:07:55	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	355	84¢	$298	0x737c97…
03-05 04:06:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xf39436…
03-05 04:06:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x948733…
03-05 04:06:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x71f957…
03-05 04:06:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x0f33f8…
03-05 04:06:47	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xb611d2…
03-05 04:06:47	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x1fb888…
03-05 04:05:29	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	66	84¢	$55	0x881e6b…
03-05 04:04:55	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	47	84¢	$40	0x1e1060…
03-05 04:04:45	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x855a6e…
03-05 04:04:45	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x065ed9…
03-05 04:04:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	776	84¢	$651	0x6a1924…
03-05 04:04:03	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x7e169d…
03-05 04:04:03	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x5d1e21…
03-05 04:03:59	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x9bccfd…
03-05 04:03:47	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xfa60ba…
03-05 04:03:41	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xc3a68a…
03-05 04:03:31	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	17	84¢	$15	0x7146d4…
03-05 04:03:21	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xc5516f…
03-05 04:03:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xeb99ce…
03-05 04:03:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x5c5b88…
03-05 04:03:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x595b36…
03-05 04:03:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x73bf53…
03-05 04:02:09	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x80cb01…
03-05 04:02:09	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x5e2ae3…
03-05 04:02:07	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x3551b8…
03-05 04:02:07	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x125932…
03-05 04:02:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xde610f…
03-05 04:02:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x33247b…
03-05 04:01:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x99727a…
03-05 04:01:07	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xe11570…
03-05 04:01:07	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x0dd984…
03-05 04:01:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xd2b940…
03-05 04:01:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xc0d1e3…
03-05 04:01:03	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x920fa7…
03-05 04:01:01	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xcbf823…
03-05 04:00:35	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	17	84¢	$14	0xe9beff…
03-05 04:00:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x820f6a…
03-05 03:34:21	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	124	41¢	$51	0x72c4e6…
03-05 03:32:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	64	41¢	$26	0xadb209…
03-05 03:31:57	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x56d395…
03-05 03:30:19	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xadc32a…
03-05 03:30:07	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x14dd2a…
03-05 03:30:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	109	41¢	$45	0x8e11c1…
03-05 03:29:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xef7018…
03-05 03:29:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x03ec38…
03-05 03:28:17	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0xc39504…
03-05 03:28:17	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x21f8b8…
03-05 03:27:55	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	112	41¢	$46	0x7ae934…
03-05 03:26:49	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	200	41¢	$82	0xad5734…
03-05 03:25:13	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0x2ea5e4…
03-05 03:24:45	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x41522d…
03-05 03:24:41	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xb4a9d5…
03-05 03:24:39	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa91347…
03-05 03:24:35	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2e9ff7…
03-05 03:24:09	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	169	41¢	$69	0xa01b94…
03-05 03:03:41	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	71	40¢	$28	0x4a3566…