Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
open
Total volume
$2,317
Trades
38
Unique wallets
32
Liquidity
$2,160
Latest YES mid
11¢
Latest NO mid
89¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-07
last 06-24 03:42
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
NO holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 5 | $3 | $11 | $8 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | — | $10 | $10 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 23 | — | — | +— |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | $10 | $10 |
| Median | 13 | — | $11 | $11 |
| Below median | 12 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 1 | — | — | +— |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decisive-Spokeswoman 0xc326…1db1 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-11 22:15 |
| Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3…1b7e | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-11 22:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $5 | 4 | 06-21 10:07 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-24 03:42:14 | (anonymous) 0x3003…9ed3 | Yes | SELL | 250 | 13¢ | $32 | 0xdef3be… |
| 06-24 03:42:14 | (anonymous) 0x9352…cb9c | No | SELL | 250 | 87¢ | $218 | 0xdef3be… |
| 06-24 03:40:31 | (anonymous) 0x98d3…4cd0 | Yes | SELL | 260 | 13¢ | $34 | 0x8295ea… |
| 06-24 03:40:31 | (anonymous) 0x27aa…1ee1 | No | SELL | 260 | 87¢ | $226 | 0x8295ea… |
| 06-24 03:38:14 | (anonymous) 0x26db…aef0 | Yes | SELL | 250 | 13¢ | $32 | 0x5b90ba… |
| 06-24 03:38:14 | (anonymous) 0x13e4…70b5 | No | SELL | 250 | 87¢ | $218 | 0x5b90ba… |
| 06-24 03:36:29 | (anonymous) 0xdc92…8bfe | Yes | SELL | 260 | 13¢ | $34 | 0xadbafc… |
| 06-24 03:36:29 | (anonymous) 0x92d7…0cb4 | No | SELL | 260 | 87¢ | $226 | 0xadbafc… |
| 06-24 03:34:22 | Harsh-Analogue 0x069f…a800 | Yes | SELL | 260 | 13¢ | $34 | 0xc03dae… |
| 06-24 03:34:22 | (anonymous) 0x8600…6f3f | No | SELL | 260 | 87¢ | $226 | 0xc03dae… |
| 06-24 03:30:35 | (anonymous) 0xa51d…da4e | No | SELL | 269 | 87¢ | $234 | 0xc28c5c… |
| 06-24 03:30:35 | (anonymous) 0xa64f…0f2e | Yes | SELL | 269 | 13¢ | $35 | 0xc28c5c… |
| 06-24 03:28:04 | (anonymous) 0x9057…45a7 | No | SELL | 254 | 87¢ | $221 | 0xcb68ca… |
| 06-24 03:28:04 | (anonymous) 0xf051…c7e0 | Yes | SELL | 254 | 13¢ | $33 | 0xcb68ca… |
| 06-24 03:22:47 | (anonymous) 0xb52e…599f | No | SELL | 300 | 87¢ | $261 | 0xced34c… |
| 06-24 03:22:47 | (anonymous) 0xdbf8…1b9b | Yes | SELL | 300 | 13¢ | $39 | 0xced34c… |
| 06-24 03:20:25 | (anonymous) 0x0484…5075 | No | SELL | 32 | 87¢ | $28 | 0x0dffce… |
| 06-24 03:20:25 | (anonymous) 0xe4ce…8d4f | Yes | SELL | 32 | 13¢ | $4 | 0x0dffce… |
| 06-24 03:17:53 | (anonymous) 0x2ad1…07c5 | No | SELL | 27 | 87¢ | $24 | 0xa4ab3f… |
| 06-24 03:17:53 | (anonymous) 0xb51c…aef3 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 13¢ | $4 | 0xa4ab3f… |
| 06-21 10:07:20 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x179b84… |
| 06-21 10:07:20 | Young-Hurdler 0xfb87…2fcf | No | SELL | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x179b84… |
| 06-19 14:28:05 | Fluid-Commotion 0x9d4a…6cb1 | No | SELL | 11 | 88¢ | $9 | 0x762b96… |
| 06-19 14:28:05 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 14¢ | $0 | 0x762b96… |
| 06-19 14:28:05 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x762b96… |
| 06-12 15:59:57 | Warlike-Noun-Haircut 0x0d26…50b5 | Yes | SELL | 86 | 9¢ | $8 | 0x8c0de4… |
| 06-12 15:59:57 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | SELL | 86 | 91¢ | $78 | 0x8c0de4… |
| 06-12 05:37:09 | Sparse-Apartment 0xaa46…4a23 | Yes | SELL | 23 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x83e1d4… |
| 06-12 05:37:09 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x83e1d4… |
| 06-12 05:37:09 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x83e1d4… |
| 06-11 22:15:49 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xfafb1b… |
| 06-11 22:15:49 | Decisive-Spokeswoman 0xc326…1db1 | No | BUY | 11 | 86¢ | $10 | 0x1f7d68… |
| 06-11 22:15:49 | Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3…1b7e | No | BUY | 11 | 89¢ | $10 | 0xfafb1b… |
| 06-11 22:15:49 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | SELL | 11 | 86¢ | $10 | 0x1f7d68… |
| 06-07 10:45:22 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 83¢ | $1 | 0x5c1467… |
| 06-07 10:45:22 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x5c1467… |
| 06-07 10:44:55 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xd3e631… |
| 06-07 10:44:55 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0xd3e631… |