Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3f8…ee1b7e
bot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$51
Unrealized P&L
+$55
Hit rate
61.9%
Resolved
97
Trades
7,830
lifetime
Volume
$44.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$248
28 positions
First seen
2026-03-07
last 07-20 21:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 19 days
Categories
Other
62% 63% +$83
Politics
33% 36% $-32
Tech
4% — —
Crypto
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +84 $22 80¢ $68 +$45 06-10 15:37
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +237 $15 6¢ $15 $-0 07-20 01:56
Will Aleksandr Logunov win the 2026 Fields Medal? No +12 $10 98¢ $12 +$2 07-11 15:56
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 92¢ $11 +$1 07-01 10:33
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Yes +19 $10 56¢ $11 +$1 07-08 11:32
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +100 $8 11¢ $11 +$2 07-14 14:34
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? No +15 $10 68¢ $10 +$0 06-29 12:40
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 82¢ $10 +$0 06-18 19:50
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +10 $8 98¢ $10 +$2 07-13 15:57
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +12 $6 82¢ $10 +$4 06-13 05:28
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? Yes +11 $10 86¢ $10 $-0 06-26 16:32
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 80¢ $9 $-1 06-16 11:12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +13 $10 70¢ $9 $-1 06-12 09:04
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +23 $10 40¢ $9 $-1 06-24 14:21
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes -11 $-5 68¢ $-8 $-3 06-27 21:48
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -20 $-13 38¢ $-7 +$6 06-15 06:23
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +19 $10 30¢ $6 $-4 06-26 04:26
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -16 $-10 34¢ $-5 +$4 06-16 05:31
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +90 $10 5¢ $4 $-5 07-16 19:04
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No -4 $-3 79¢ $-3 $-0 07-08 08:40
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +3 $1 99¢ $3 +$2 07-13 15:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +13 $5 22¢ $3 $-2 07-20 11:32
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -8 $-3 20¢ $-2 +$1 06-24 17:53
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No -13 $-9 12¢ $-1 +$7 06-12 17:33
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -1 $-1 84¢ $-1 +$0 07-07 12:01
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No +1 $1 90¢ $1 +$0 07-17 15:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes -5 $-0 1¢ $-0 +$0 06-26 20:32
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? No +0 $4 1¢ $0 $-4 07-12 02:16