Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3f8…ee1b7e
bot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$51
Unrealized P&L
+$45
Hit rate
61.9%
Resolved
97
Trades
7,562
lifetime
Volume
$42.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$316
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-07
last 06-29 18:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 19 days
Categories
Other
62% 63% +$83
Politics
33% 36% $-32
Tech
3% — —
Crypto
1% — —
Sports
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 314 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +84 $22 76¢ $64 +$42 06-10 15:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -32 $-25 100¢ $-32 $-7 06-17 12:43
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? No +18 $15 94¢ $17 +$2 06-23 21:47
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No +16 $10 98¢ $15 +$5 06-23 19:01
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +23 $10 48¢ $11 +$1 06-24 14:21
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes -11 $-10 90¢ $-10 +$0 06-02 20:01
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +15 $10 66¢ $10 +$0 06-13 20:53
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +10 $9 99¢ $10 +$1 06-25 14:49
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? Yes +11 $10 92¢ $10 +$0 06-26 16:32
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +13 $10 77¢ $10 +$0 06-12 09:04
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? No +15 $10 66¢ $10 $-0 06-29 12:40
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No +11 $10 87¢ $10 $-0 06-11 22:15
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 82¢ $10 $-0 06-16 11:12
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 76¢ $10 $-0 06-18 19:50
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No -9 $-9 100¢ $-9 $-0 06-18 12:19
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -20 $-13 48¢ $-9 +$4 06-15 06:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +11 $9 82¢ $9 +$0 06-26 07:01
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +12 $6 74¢ $9 +$3 06-13 05:28
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +100 $10 8¢ $8 $-2 06-08 21:33
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +19 $10 45¢ $8 $-2 06-26 04:26
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? No +17 $9 46¢ $8 $-1 06-26 01:36
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -16 $-10 40¢ $-6 +$3 06-16 05:31
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes -11 $-5 47¢ $-5 $-0 06-27 21:48
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +18 $10 30¢ $5 $-5 06-26 02:11
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -8 $-3 26¢ $-2 +$0 06-24 17:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes -5 $-0 38¢ $-2 $-2 06-26 20:32
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No -13 $-9 11¢ $-1 +$7 06-12 17:33
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes -18 $-0 7¢ $-1 $-1 06-24 21:24
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No -1 $-0 76¢ $-0 $-0 06-27 02:44
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +136 $5 0¢ $0 $-5 06-15 18:14