Spherical-Fringe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$51

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.9%

Resolved

Trades

8,337

lifetime

Volume

$47.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-07

last 08-09 18:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

60% 63% +$83

Politics

35% 36% $-32

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	59	$284	423	423	+0	open	—	05-27 16:16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	31	$215	202	202	+0	open	—	04-21 19:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	49	$196	227	227	+0	open	—	04-21 22:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	36	$196	240	240	+0	open	—	04-20 16:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	29	$177	278	278	+0	open	—	04-25 21:44
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	42	$170	383	383	+0	open	—	03-27 20:35
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	28	$169	144	143	+1	open	—	04-19 19:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	37	$167	195	195	+0	open	—	04-07 21:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	36	$165	153	168	-15	No	+$10	05-06 12:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	64	$164	250	250	+0	open	—	04-19 12:24
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 65 89	49	$159	227	215	+12	open	—	03-18 14:03
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	14	$151	120	120	+0	open	—	05-29 18:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	56	$150	221	221	+0	open	—	04-21 19:34
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	12	$143	190	190	+0	open	—	08-06 15:42
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	10	$143	134	134	+0	open	—	03-08 15:02
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	16	$142	485	485	+0	open	—	08-04 18:06
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	18	$134	101	101	+0	open	—	04-15 06:13
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	40	$132	318	318	+0	open	—	04-27 01:46
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	54	$132	256	179	+77	open	—	06-14 22:26
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	8	$129	158	158	+0	open	—	03-08 15:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	13	$125	124	129	-5	open	—	06-28 11:36
Will Opendoor reach $6 in April?	5	$125	185	185	+0	open	—	04-23 15:15
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	12	$121	96	96	+0	open	—	04-23 17:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	15	$120	81	81	+0	open	—	04-12 13:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	26	$120	88	104	-16	open	—	05-28 13:57
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 90 114	30	$120	233	100	+134	open	—	03-18 14:03
highest temperature in nyc on march 7 2026 46 47f	7	$118	97	97	+0	open	—	03-08 14:00
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	10	$118	155	155	+0	open	—	06-20 16:21
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	11	$117	196	196	+0	open	—	04-22 08:51
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	12	$117	132	128	+4	open	—	05-04 14:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 16:31:27	will trump say ass in august 20260728220215904	Yes	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x100231…
08-10 15:48:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x05032d…
08-09 18:40:43	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	Yes	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xbc0bd0…
08-09 16:14:13	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 21 20260808192512605	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x0aaf27…
08-09 14:56:16	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 26 20260808192512606	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x5d6d35…
08-09 14:51:31	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xe2a68c…
08-09 13:10:43	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0x99131d…
08-09 04:14:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	16	81¢	$13	0x5e5623…
08-09 01:01:58	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	SELL	6	89¢	$6	0x61b32d…
08-08 19:20:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xfebf94…
08-08 18:27:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xbcf729…
08-08 16:45:15	will the total solar eclipse be highly visible in reykjavik 20260723014439982	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x53660c…
08-08 14:53:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	4	92¢	$3	0x1c7c2a…
08-08 14:11:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x2b4072…
08-08 14:11:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x2b3eb9…
08-08 14:11:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x8cb0c4…
08-08 14:11:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x56bf3a…
08-08 14:11:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x3ee14b…
08-08 14:10:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xd9aedc…
08-08 14:10:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xc909da…
08-08 14:10:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x747126…
08-08 13:42:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x586e29…
08-08 12:07:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x3ce450…
08-08 10:34:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x1ac087…
08-08 08:12:15	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xeebbe7…
08-08 05:18:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x3d5a91…
08-08 04:04:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0xb99f1d…
08-08 01:12:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x761826…
08-08 01:02:57	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	No	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x2d942e…
08-07 23:53:46	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0xc07446…
08-07 18:14:42	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x675007…
08-07 15:25:21	will casemiro attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630260	No	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x977ccc…
08-07 14:29:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x73bea2…
08-07 14:00:34	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x45aa0e…
08-07 12:53:24	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	0	65¢	$0	0x01bf93…
08-07 12:53:16	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	18	64¢	$12	0xc09215…
08-07 10:57:28	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x4bd58f…
08-07 00:58:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0x324625…
08-06 21:02:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	98	1¢	$1	0xbefc0d…
08-06 20:03:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x783528…
08-06 19:38:06	will casemiro attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630260	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x2351fb…
08-06 15:42:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x3f5f12…
08-06 13:20:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x4975ad…
08-06 12:27:36	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$0	0xd033a4…
08-06 11:22:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x4b453f…
08-06 10:16:29	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x524856…
08-06 10:15:57	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x981cf9…
08-06 10:15:42	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x87508b…
08-06 10:15:09	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x36ef46…
08-06 10:14:54	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5c2828…
08-06 10:14:24	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6125fa…
08-06 10:13:53	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0ed979…
08-06 10:13:38	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xceb365…
08-06 10:13:06	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0x7066c4…
08-06 08:21:26	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbb4be4…
08-06 08:00:15	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x8d04d6…
08-06 07:50:27	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x67dd37…
08-06 07:50:24	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x2f420b…
08-06 07:39:44	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	Yes	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0x54c89a…
08-06 06:31:51	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xa629c4…
08-06 06:22:53	will trump say gay in august 20260728220215918	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x6e429c…
08-06 03:09:36	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0xb9d164…
08-05 20:57:33	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x0ea9f2…
08-05 20:57:23	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0xd2868c…
08-05 19:35:26	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0xeba0c2…
08-05 18:44:57	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0x54d135…
08-05 18:32:53	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xf5f4d1…
08-05 17:14:33	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0xaaf2b4…
08-05 17:11:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x7537d3…
08-05 16:58:29	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xf3447c…
08-05 15:43:29	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x0fefcf…
08-05 15:21:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x586acb…
08-05 15:21:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x0aee87…
08-05 14:23:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	27	57¢	$15	0xb6f745…
08-05 14:07:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	37	52¢	$19	0x12e14f…
08-05 13:41:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	37	40¢	$15	0xc69d25…
08-05 12:34:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x59d419…
08-05 12:21:05	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xabf335…
08-05 12:12:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x4d96f0…
08-05 12:12:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x69782b…
08-05 11:25:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x4d659f…
08-05 11:20:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x43940e…
08-05 10:47:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x2f452f…
08-05 08:57:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xd651ee…
08-05 05:39:38	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0xe126d3…
08-05 05:08:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x435220…
08-05 04:17:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$0	0xf10c4a…
08-05 04:17:26	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0xdc09b3…
08-05 04:17:26	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0xacfbb1…
08-05 04:17:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$0	0xd41c42…
08-05 04:17:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$0	0xc95c56…
08-05 04:17:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	9	59¢	$5	0x9134d6…
08-05 04:13:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x3885af…
08-05 04:13:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x0745af…
08-05 04:09:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	49	51¢	$25	0x6dd073…
08-05 03:34:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0xa93553…
08-05 03:34:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x9410ad…
08-05 03:32:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xc32419…
08-05 03:32:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xa9092d…
08-05 03:30:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0xbe0a17…