Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3f8…ee1b7e Create alert
whale bot hot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$4.75K
Unrealized P&L
+$116
Hit rate
66.4%
Resolved
7,078
Trades
20,599
lifetime
Volume
$150.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$619
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-07
last 11-15 15:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 249 days
Categories
Other
79% 68% +$4,133
Politics
17% 57% +$665
Tech
3% 53% +$9
Crypto
0% 55% -$13
Pop-Culture
0% 39% -$20
Sports
0% 33% -$20
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 130 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +58 $15 99¢ $57 +$42 06-10 15:37
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +109 $3 46¢ $51 +$47 07-13 12:41
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -38 -$24 94¢ $-35 -$11 05-15 13:30
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +30 $15 97¢ $30 +$15 06-25 20:34
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -33 -$20 86¢ $-28 -$8 05-02 20:52
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? No +25 $10 99¢ $25 +$15 11-10 20:44
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -24 -$16 98¢ $-23 -$8 05-26 09:03
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027? Yes +37 $15 64¢ $23 +$8 11-06 07:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026? No +60 $13 36¢ $22 +$9 11-11 14:00
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +21 $15 98¢ $21 +$6 11-06 21:01
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by November 30? Yes +19 $15 98¢ $18 +$3 11-11 21:00
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? No -22 -$13 84¢ $-18 -$6 08-05 18:16
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +32 $20 54¢ $18 -$2 11-12 18:49
israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 Yes +25 $15 68¢ $17 +$2 08-14 08:59
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +63 $10 26¢ $17 +$7 10-24 01:08
Will Gemini Krypton debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? Yes +17 $15 92¢ $16 +$1 11-13 09:57
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)? No +17 $15 92¢ $16 +$1 11-13 03:22
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? No +17 $15 91¢ $16 +$1 11-10 19:38
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -17 -$11 92¢ $-15 -$5 05-07 09:18
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028? No +41 $15 38¢ $15 +$0 11-08 05:58
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? No +17 $15 90¢ $15 +$0 11-06 03:11
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027? No +17 $15 86¢ $15 $0 11-14 04:13
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? Yes +20 $15 72¢ $14 -$1 11-13 14:31
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No -14 -$11 97¢ $-14 -$3 05-26 02:47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +16 $10 86¢ $14 +$4 11-05 16:43
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes -14 -$13 96¢ $-14 -$1 09-22 12:49
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes +14 $10 93¢ $13 +$3 08-19 13:42
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)? No +17 $14 80¢ $13 -$1 11-06 19:35
Will Tomáš Chovanec be the next Mayor of České Budějovice? Yes +13 $10 99¢ $13 +$3 11-02 20:11
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -17 -$9 80¢ $-13 -$4 05-03 19:12