Realized P&L
-$629
Unrealized P&L
-$28
Hit rate
70.7%
Resolved
730
Trades
15,633
lifetime
Volume
$101.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$2.28K
25 positions
First seen
2026-04-15
last 10-29 22:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 66 days
Categories
Other
70% 61% -$696
Politics
15% 51% +$367
Sports
10% 47% -$315
Tech
5% 80% +$15
Crypto
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 876 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat? Yes +793 $578 68¢ $543 -$35 10-27 02:07
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +500 $324 60¢ $297 -$27 10-29 11:49
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,042 $316 24¢ $245 -$71 10-10 04:49
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat? No +326 $235 68¢ $224 -$11 10-28 01:28
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? Yes +342 $181 60¢ $204 +$23 09-26 09:34
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +659 $208 24¢ $161 -$46 10-29 23:28
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +124 $99 88¢ $109 +$10 10-29 06:24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +218 $88 44¢ $96 +$8 10-29 17:55
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes +125 $84 66¢ $83 -$2 10-29 11:44
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? No +136 $71 60¢ $81 +$11 10-29 20:44
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +121 $80 60¢ $73 -$7 10-29 11:49
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No +846 $76 8¢ $63 -$13 10-29 01:50
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +197 $163 19¢ $37 -$126 10-27 23:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +76 $46 34¢ $25 -$21 10-29 21:20
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? No +29 $20 67¢ $19 $0 10-29 10:46
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? No +231 $9 3¢ $7 -$2 10-28 03:34
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +37 $6 15¢ $5 $0 10-29 06:25
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes +20 $7 16¢ $3 -$4 10-29 11:18
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +2 -$36 91¢ $2 +$38 10-26 19:05
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +6 $21 5¢ $0 -$20 10-01 19:43
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +0 -$46 26¢ $0 +$46 10-22 18:20
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? No +0 $0 3¢ $0 +$0 10-29 16:22
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +0 -$98 5¢ $0 +$98 10-13 20:41
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +0 -$99 29¢ $0 +$99 10-26 03:49
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes +0 -$24 2¢ $0 +$24 10-28 18:09