Guilty-Spring — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.59K

Unrealized P&L

+$19

Hit rate

72.1%

Resolved

Trades

2,602

lifetime

Volume

$170.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

$445

19 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 03:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

79% 61% $-2,419

Tech

8% — —

Politics

7% 71% $-162

Pop-Culture

4% 0% $-8

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump Airport become law this year?	No	+152	$134	90¢	$137	+$2	06-10 10:55
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	+320	$69	18¢	$58	$-11	06-26 06:32
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+400	$60	12¢	$46	$-14	06-06 15:43
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?	No	+50	$42	92¢	$46	+$3	06-17 20:02
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+154	$44	21¢	$32	$-11	06-01 15:02
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	+33	$30	98¢	$32	+$2	06-13 09:32
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?	No	+49	$13	46¢	$23	+$10	06-08 07:39
Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	+23	$19	98¢	$22	+$4	06-10 10:56
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	-23	$-21	76¢	$-18	+$3	06-17 10:50
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	+16	$9	95¢	$16	+$7	06-01 11:36
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	+6	$5	95¢	$6	+$1	06-25 00:22
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	-97	$-28	5¢	$-5	+$23	06-05 15:06
Will Ariana Grande feature Troye Sivan on Petal?	Yes	+66	$3	4¢	$3	$-0	06-20 12:00
Will Ariana Grande feature The Weeknd on Petal?	Yes	+5	$0	21¢	$1	+$1	06-20 12:00
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	+1	$0	97¢	$1	+$0	06-18 09:48
Will Ariana Grande feature Doja Cat on Petal?	Yes	+22	$1	2¢	$1	$-0	06-20 11:59
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	06-12 10:08
Will Ariana Grande feature Taylor Swift on Petal?	Yes	+13	$1	2¢	$0	$-0	06-20 11:59
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	+0	$0	60¢	$0	+$0	05-29 06:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	31	$4.5K	8,186	1,084	+7,102	open	—	02-02 23:16
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	37	$4.3K	4,520	2,990	+1,529	open	—	03-31 22:27
will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	40	$4.0K	4,657	3,054	+1,603	open	—	04-09 23:52
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in january 381	17	$3.6K	4,080	300	+3,780	open	—	02-13 16:08
will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	19	$3.1K	3,000	2,755	+245	open	—	03-21 14:36
will annual inflation increase by 3pt3 in march	31	$3.1K	3,189	2,452	+737	open	—	04-01 07:23
will annual inflation increase by 2pt2 in january 787	18	$3.0K	3,750	0	+3,750	open	—	02-11 09:11
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	3	$3.0K	3,106	0	+3,106	open	—	03-16 13:20
will annual inflation increase by 2pt3 in january 461	12	$2.7K	3,676	0	+3,676	open	—	02-11 09:11
will annual inflation increase by 3pt1 in march	12	$2.6K	2,918	1,576	+1,342	open	—	03-26 15:36
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?	5	$2.5K	2,967	0	+2,967	Yes	$-2,463	04-22 22:13
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt7 in march kbha 359 699	9	$2.4K	5,659	529	+5,130	open	—	04-07 23:53
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt3 in february 312	19	$2.4K	4,131	736	+3,395	open	—	03-10 09:33
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	17	$2.2K	3,223	1,682	+1,541	open	—	03-30 05:30
will annual inflation increase by 2pt5 in january 758	9	$2.2K	2,529	663	+1,866	open	—	02-11 08:22
will the dhs shutdown last 21 days or more 531	8	$2.2K	1,682	1,753	-71	open	—	02-25 01:04
us government funding lapse on january 31	14	$2.1K	3,776	0	+3,776	open	—	01-30 00:42
will annual inflation increase by 2pt4 in january 964	9	$2.1K	3,204	0	+3,204	open	—	02-10 04:38
will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	11	$2.0K	2,677	1,387	+1,290	open	—	03-01 04:03
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	19	$1.9K	3,384	1,678	+1,706	open	—	03-26 15:32
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt3 in january 418	10	$1.9K	1,900	1,085	+815	open	—	02-11 14:23
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	5	$1.9K	2,222	580	+1,642	open	—	02-20 00:22
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	26	$1.8K	6,063	2,318	+3,745	open	—	02-03 01:53
will spacex starship flight test 12 launch by march 31	30	$1.8K	1,889	1,006	+883	open	—	03-08 01:54
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	6	$1.8K	1,546	1,096	+450	open	—	01-30 23:32
will annual inflation increase by 2pt5 in february 439 553 591 573	12	$1.6K	2,188	297	+1,891	open	—	03-04 13:41
will the december 2025 unemployment rate be 4pt5	5	$1.5K	2,367	0	+2,367	open	—	01-09 09:53
will la mudanza be played first at the super bowl halftime show	1	$1.4K	1,600	0	+1,600	open	—	02-06 02:50
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	7	$1.4K	1,534	11	+1,522	Yes	+$118	05-04 14:58
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	8	$1.3K	1,152	788	+364	open	—	03-04 14:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 19:11:03	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x1f703d…
07-20 03:00:36	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	Yes	BUY	115	65¢	$75	0xb3f6af…
07-20 03:00:13	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	Yes	BUY	91	65¢	$59	0x24d89b…
07-20 02:59:30	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	Yes	BUY	168	65¢	$109	0x4f7718…
07-19 19:30:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	400	29¢	$116	0x7d418e…
07-04 17:53:47	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	151	29¢	$43	0x00d1ae…
07-02 13:43:26	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	328	40¢	$130	0xffdce2…
07-01 05:23:52	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xc8fb59…
06-27 02:06:52	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	45	79¢	$35	0xd26429…
06-26 06:32:35	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$19	0x76d258…
06-25 20:20:56	will the united states have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x5e1e04…
06-25 11:09:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	186	32¢	$60	0x5aabb9…
06-25 05:27:22	Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	2¢	$3	0xa76c62…
06-25 05:26:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	171	12¢	$20	0xf3d783…
06-25 05:21:49	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0xa29e3e…
06-25 00:22:08	Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x562ee5…
06-25 00:19:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	970	53¢	$514	0x220bea…
06-24 19:16:10	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	334	8¢	$27	0xadc1fd…
06-24 10:50:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	67	90¢	$60	0xe976de…
06-24 00:22:58	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	114	6¢	$7	0x3885ce…
06-23 20:12:25	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	54	19¢	$10	0x027a2a…
06-23 11:58:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	62	90¢	$56	0xd743b0…
06-23 08:29:47	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	6¢	$19	0xf6ed3f…
06-23 02:28:53	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	6¢	$4	0xd252d0…
06-23 02:09:41	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	37¢	$220	0xfe3b00…
06-22 20:52:22	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	42	80¢	$33	0x15ca04…
06-22 20:51:32	will kanye west have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0x49408a…
06-22 20:48:05	government shutdown by october 1 20260610162414910	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x4b7bde…
06-22 20:47:07	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	40¢	$35	0x051d80…
06-22 10:37:13	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	45¢	$27	0xab66a3…
06-22 10:33:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	330	70¢	$231	0x6ee261…
06-22 07:06:32	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	24	54¢	$13	0x8552e9…
06-22 06:17:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	170	45¢	$77	0xca8eb3…
06-22 06:06:04	will bilibili gaming golden road in 2026 20260619191254883	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x2bb93b…
06-22 06:01:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	505	72¢	$364	0xf3a0a0…
06-22 03:09:08	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x88c42b…
06-22 02:15:29	government shutdown by october 1 20260610162414910	Yes	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x6143f3…
06-21 13:19:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xcd947c…
06-20 20:54:05	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220	Yes	BUY	470	8¢	$37	0xf877b5…
06-20 20:46:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	24	52¢	$12	0x01cf52…
06-20 12:00:59	Will Ariana Grande feature Troye Sivan on Petal?	Yes	BUY	66	4¢	$3	0x5cee0b…
06-20 12:00:22	Will Ariana Grande feature The Weeknd on Petal?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x51e884…
06-20 11:59:44	Will Ariana Grande feature Taylor Swift on Petal?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x92776f…
06-20 11:59:11	Will Ariana Grande feature Doja Cat on Petal?	Yes	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0xe675fd…
06-18 22:58:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	501	42¢	$212	0x500fdb…
06-18 09:48:22	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x99854c…
06-18 09:47:47	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	705	28¢	$198	0x486c69…
06-17 20:02:43	Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x0959ad…
06-17 19:59:46	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	1,500	89¢	$1,335	0x9de215…
06-17 10:50:40	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	234	53¢	$124	0x5acdb1…
06-17 10:28:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	Yes	BUY	350	14¢	$49	0xbdcf8c…
06-17 10:28:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	800	61¢	$487	0xf2ea4c…
06-17 10:27:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	225	40¢	$90	0xcfe374…
06-16 11:19:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xb9160a…
06-15 07:32:22	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x44b98b…
06-14 08:23:25	will the united states have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x9edd14…
06-14 03:04:42	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	146	51¢	$74	0x5d0dcf…
06-13 22:13:42	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	62	47¢	$29	0xc2b6b5…
06-13 09:39:45	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	151	54¢	$81	0x57f764…
06-13 09:32:46	Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x5d4d7d…
06-13 04:22:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x147372…
06-12 10:10:58	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd81354…
06-12 10:08:09	Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x9b2dfa…
06-12 06:23:24	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	BUY	344	83¢	$286	0x776186…
06-12 05:44:46	will starmer say trump during the next pmq 20260610160650644	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa070c7…
06-12 05:44:07	will the death of robin hood score at least 60 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x692b07…
06-11 21:11:42	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	217	80¢	$174	0x1176d2…
06-11 11:13:15	will kanye west have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x8433e7…
06-10 10:56:34	Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	23	82¢	$19	0x1a45dd…
06-10 10:55:46	Will Trump Airport become law this year?	No	BUY	152	88¢	$134	0x6235ad…
06-09 05:09:27	will supergirl score at least 60 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x8287aa…
06-09 05:08:12	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	73	97¢	$71	0x262b80…
06-09 05:07:49	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	372	96¢	$357	0x8856fd…
06-08 15:32:06	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x5b3b33…
06-08 07:39:12	Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?	No	BUY	49	27¢	$13	0xc03815…
06-07 00:10:25	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	144	25¢	$36	0x54f569…
06-06 15:43:48	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0xcf97ea…
06-05 15:06:19	Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	51	18¢	$9	0x8bbbda…
06-05 15:05:03	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x690128…
06-04 22:29:25	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	189	49¢	$93	0x10ae8e…
06-03 14:48:27	Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0xa9665a…
06-03 10:05:06	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	65¢	$48	0x532d20…
06-03 10:04:31	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	15¢	$11	0xf7e50e…
06-03 06:47:21	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	191	18¢	$34	0xe0ead7…
06-03 04:08:12	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	17¢	$37	0x9afc61…
06-03 02:26:50	Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15?	Yes	BUY	18	64¢	$11	0xd4a560…
06-02 11:31:24	Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June?	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xfc6e59…
06-02 11:30:28	Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x115dd0…
06-02 07:19:31	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	48¢	$11	0xa08ecc…
06-02 04:21:37	Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	45	40¢	$18	0xe3eb5a…
06-01 15:02:01	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	28¢	$44	0x7cc589…
06-01 11:36:03	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	16	53¢	$9	0xea1e8c…
06-01 11:32:15	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,155	24¢	$277	0xb00cea…
05-30 06:21:34	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x81d81d…
05-29 06:31:44	Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x016a6a…
05-29 06:26:32	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	12¢	$30	0x50d19d…
05-24 12:49:08	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x417a02…
05-23 23:27:07	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	228	4¢	$9	0x0405b5…
05-23 13:29:19	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	528	2¢	$11	0x6fe48d…
05-23 12:45:41	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xe945e2…