Guilty-Spring 0x04dcbd…902387
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$2.59K
Unrealized P&L
-$258
Hit rate
72.1%
Resolved
57
Trades
2,595
lifetime
Volume
$170.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$66
Open exposure
$576
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-27 02:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Other
79% 61% $-2,419
Tech
8% — —
Politics
7% 71% $-162
Pop-Culture
4% 0% $-8
Sports
2% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump Airport become law this year? No +152 $134 93¢ $141 +$7 06-10 10:55
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? Yes +320 $69 24¢ $75 +$7 06-26 06:32
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No +814 $57 7¢ $56 $-2 06-24 19:16
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +400 $60 14¢ $54 $-6 06-06 15:43
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +154 $44 33¢ $51 +$7 06-01 15:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No +50 $50 100¢ $50 +$0 06-13 04:22
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? No +50 $42 82¢ $41 $-1 06-17 20:02
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? No +33 $30 96¢ $32 +$2 06-13 09:32
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? No +49 $13 43¢ $21 +$8 06-08 07:39
Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No +23 $19 87¢ $20 +$1 06-10 10:56
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +16 $9 54¢ $9 +$0 06-01 11:36
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes -97 $-28 8¢ $-8 +$19 06-05 15:06
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes -23 $-21 25¢ $-6 +$15 06-17 10:50
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? No +6 $5 92¢ $5 +$1 06-25 00:22
Will Ariana Grande feature Troye Sivan on Petal? Yes +66 $3 4¢ $3 +$0 06-20 12:00
Will Ariana Grande feature The Weeknd on Petal? Yes +5 $0 30¢ $1 +$1 06-20 12:00
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes +752 $285 0¢ $1 $-285 06-23 02:09
Will Ariana Grande feature Doja Cat on Petal? Yes +22 $1 3¢ $1 $-0 06-20 11:59
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +1 $0 52¢ $0 +$0 06-18 09:48
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes +1 $0 60¢ $0 +$0 06-08 15:32
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +0 $0 76¢ $0 +$0 06-12 10:08
Will Ariana Grande feature Taylor Swift on Petal? Yes +13 $1 2¢ $0 $-0 06-20 11:59
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes +248 $30 0¢ $0 $-30 05-29 06:26
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No +0 $0 57¢ $0 +$0 05-29 06:31
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes +171 $3 0¢ $0 $-3 06-25 05:27