Realized P&L
-$3.10K
Unrealized P&L
-$45
Hit rate
72.7%
Resolved
4
Trades
9,606
lifetime
Volume
$79.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$3.04K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-22 00:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Other
52%
100%
+$421
Politics
41%
50%
$-3,523
Crypto
6%
—
—
Tech
0%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk
• peak 238 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | +2,867 | $282 | 8¢ | $229 | $-52 | 07-22 04:14 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | +2,644 | $191 | 7¢ | $181 | $-10 | 07-20 12:13 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | -4,004 | $-234 | 4¢ | $-178 | +$55 | 07-05 15:16 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | +1,546 | $193 | 12¢ | $178 | $-15 | 07-20 15:30 | |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Yes | +1,970 | $318 | 8¢ | $167 | $-150 | 07-21 05:41 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | Yes | -1,155 | $-127 | 14¢ | $-156 | $-29 | 07-07 14:43 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | -3,700 | $-127 | 4¢ | $-150 | $-23 | 07-03 16:55 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | +977 | $151 | 14¢ | $132 | $-19 | 07-08 19:52 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | -294 | $-121 | 42¢ | $-122 | $-1 | 07-10 12:22 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | +259 | $82 | 46¢ | $121 | +$38 | 07-19 10:36 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | +504 | $10 | 22¢ | $113 | +$103 | 07-20 12:02 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | +394 | $42 | 29¢ | $112 | +$70 | 07-20 14:26 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | +739 | $140 | 12¢ | $92 | $-47 | 07-21 15:44 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | +1,210 | $106 | 8¢ | $91 | $-16 | 07-12 20:50 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | +334 | $72 | 26¢ | $88 | +$17 | 07-10 10:09 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +468 | $78 | 18¢ | $84 | +$6 | 07-21 14:46 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | -384 | $-125 | 22¢ | $-82 | +$43 | 07-20 12:17 | |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | Yes | -1,064 | $-72 | 8¢ | $-80 | $-7 | 07-20 16:40 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes | -675 | $-93 | 12¢ | $-78 | +$16 | 07-17 08:26 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Yes | +614 | $68 | 12¢ | $71 | +$3 | 07-22 06:29 | |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +1,409 | $80 | 5¢ | $70 | $-10 | 07-22 01:09 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +198 | $85 | 36¢ | $70 | $-14 | 06-28 08:39 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | +252 | $47 | 22¢ | $57 | +$9 | 07-20 06:50 | |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Yes | +173 | $54 | 30¢ | $53 | $-1 | 07-20 20:08 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | +405 | $59 | 12¢ | $51 | $-8 | 07-20 19:43 | |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | Yes | -305 | $-50 | 16¢ | $-50 | $-0 | 07-21 22:52 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | +470 | $72 | 11¢ | $49 | $-22 | 07-10 19:08 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +108 | $21 | 44¢ | $48 | +$27 | 07-03 19:56 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | +2,407 | $44 | 2¢ | $47 | +$3 | 06-10 02:59 | |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | Yes | +449 | $52 | 10¢ | $43 | $-9 | 07-17 14:31 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 81 | $3.7K | 5,905 | 4,219 | +1,686 | Yes | +$253 | 05-05 06:56 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 39 | $2.7K | 4,167 | 0 | +4,167 | open | — | 02-28 03:51 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 87 | $2.6K | 11,720 | 16,106 | -4,386 | Yes | $-3,775 | 05-08 18:02 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 169 | $2.6K | 6,789 | 5,663 | +1,126 | open | — | 05-08 10:33 |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | 80 | $2.1K | 3,350 | 2,876 | +474 | Yes | +$238 | 05-07 22:04 |
| microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026 | 38 | $2.0K | 3,342 | 2,368 | +974 | open | — | 02-09 11:17 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | 97 | $1.9K | 5,512 | 5,310 | +202 | open | — | 07-20 12:02 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 109 | $1.6K | 4,956 | 4,605 | +351 | open | — | 07-20 14:26 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | 133 | $1.5K | 4,845 | 4,733 | +111 | open | — | 07-20 14:01 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 179 | $1.5K | 7,409 | 6,746 | +663 | open | — | 07-17 17:03 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | 146 | $1.4K | 4,423 | 3,872 | +551 | open | — | 07-21 15:44 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 154 | $1.3K | 4,680 | 5,051 | -371 | open | — | 07-20 15:30 |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | 83 | $1.3K | 1,121 | 1,269 | -149 | Yes | +$183 | 04-02 16:38 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 232 | $1.1K | 6,674 | 6,102 | +573 | open | — | 07-22 04:14 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 64 | $1.1K | 10,845 | 11,856 | -1,011 | open | — | 06-14 22:18 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | 130 | $1.1K | 6,680 | 7,165 | -485 | open | — | 07-12 13:56 |
| x banned in uk by march 31 | 36 | $1.0K | 2,099 | 0 | +2,099 | open | — | 02-26 10:23 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | 65 | $975 | 1,695 | 1,695 | -0 | open | — | 07-20 12:17 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 122 | $959 | 4,236 | 3,884 | +352 | open | — | 07-22 00:50 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | 21 | $892 | 1,740 | 359 | +1,381 | open | — | 03-17 14:12 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | 83 | $884 | 8,418 | 9,499 | -1,082 | open | — | 06-25 06:12 |
| israel strikes iran by march 31 2026 | 25 | $848 | 1,378 | 200 | +1,178 | open | — | 01-15 23:13 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 197 | $846 | 6,647 | 4,539 | +2,108 | open | — | 07-20 12:13 |
| us confirms havana syndromecausing device by march 31 | 28 | $841 | 1,611 | 0 | +1,611 | open | — | 02-14 20:29 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 55 | $841 | 1,888 | 1,673 | +216 | open | — | 07-20 16:46 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 93 | $835 | 3,817 | 4,461 | -643 | open | — | 07-10 19:08 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | 73 | $804 | 1,514 | 141 | +1,373 | open | — | 04-20 22:19 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 62 | $801 | 1,670 | 1,610 | +59 | open | — | 06-12 23:11 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | 31 | $774 | 1,015 | 1,881 | -867 | open | — | 04-08 17:49 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 22 | $767 | 4,669 | 5,635 | -966 | open | — | 03-25 19:21 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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