Realized P&L
-$3.10K
Unrealized P&L
+$143
Hit rate
72.7%
Resolved
4
Trades
3,759
lifetime
Volume
$50.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$2.44K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 00:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
45%
50%
$-3,523
Other
45%
100%
+$421
Crypto
10%
—
—
Tech
0%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk
• peak 199 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | +1,743 | $248 | 11¢ | $183 | $-65 | 06-08 23:41 | |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +1,198 | $108 | 15¢ | $174 | +$66 | 06-04 11:06 | |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Yes | +929 | $147 | 16¢ | $153 | +$6 | 06-01 21:02 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | -2,490 | $-162 | 6¢ | $-153 | +$9 | 05-29 16:59 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | +698 | $133 | 20¢ | $143 | +$10 | 06-08 13:53 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +2,111 | $102 | 6¢ | $137 | +$35 | 06-08 22:16 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | +849 | $124 | 14¢ | $115 | $-9 | 06-04 09:56 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | +889 | $89 | 11¢ | $93 | +$4 | 06-06 22:23 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | +844 | $73 | 11¢ | $93 | +$20 | 06-08 04:48 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | -2,089 | $-148 | 4¢ | $-87 | +$61 | 06-09 08:32 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | +2,576 | $125 | 3¢ | $84 | $-41 | 06-05 17:16 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | -643 | $-85 | 12¢ | $-80 | +$5 | 06-02 23:20 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | Yes | +2,689 | $60 | 3¢ | $77 | +$17 | 06-07 07:11 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | +77 | $75 | 98¢ | $75 | $-0 | 06-10 02:59 | |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +1,360 | $78 | 6¢ | $75 | $-3 | 06-07 16:00 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | -145 | $-79 | 50¢ | $-73 | +$6 | 05-28 07:05 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | +340 | $85 | 21¢ | $71 | $-14 | 06-07 05:58 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -58 | $-53 | 95¢ | $-55 | $-2 | 06-09 18:57 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | +2,407 | $44 | 2¢ | $52 | +$8 | 06-10 02:59 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +138 | $40 | 37¢ | $51 | +$11 | 06-06 08:44 | |
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | -516 | $-64 | 10¢ | $-49 | +$15 | 06-06 18:54 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | +250 | $49 | 18¢ | $46 | $-3 | 06-09 19:18 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | -456 | $-37 | 10¢ | $-46 | $-8 | 06-05 04:16 | |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | Yes | +173 | $42 | 25¢ | $43 | +$1 | 06-05 16:09 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | -124 | $-64 | 34¢ | $-41 | +$23 | 05-30 17:43 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | +207 | $39 | 20¢ | $40 | +$1 | 06-09 21:50 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Yes | +527 | $43 | 8¢ | $39 | $-4 | 06-08 09:40 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | +212 | $38 | 18¢ | $39 | +$1 | 06-10 02:44 | |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | Yes | -148 | $-43 | 26¢ | $-38 | +$5 | 06-07 17:00 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | Yes | -1,125 | $-25 | 3¢ | $-38 | $-13 | 06-07 03:48 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 81 | $3.7K | 5,905 | 4,219 | +1,686 | Yes | +$253 | 05-05 06:56 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 39 | $2.7K | 4,167 | 0 | +4,167 | open | — | 02-28 03:51 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 87 | $2.6K | 11,720 | 16,106 | -4,386 | Yes | $-3,775 | 05-08 18:02 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 169 | $2.6K | 6,789 | 5,663 | +1,126 | open | — | 05-08 10:33 |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | 80 | $2.1K | 3,350 | 2,876 | +474 | Yes | +$238 | 05-07 22:04 |
| microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026 | 38 | $2.0K | 3,342 | 2,368 | +974 | open | — | 02-09 11:17 |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | 83 | $1.3K | 1,121 | 1,269 | -149 | Yes | +$183 | 04-02 16:38 |
| x banned in uk by march 31 | 36 | $1.0K | 2,099 | 0 | +2,099 | open | — | 02-26 10:23 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 55 | $1.0K | 10,148 | 11,176 | -1,028 | open | — | 06-09 08:32 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | 45 | $894 | 2,176 | 1,979 | +197 | open | — | 06-10 00:39 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | 21 | $892 | 1,740 | 359 | +1,381 | open | — | 03-17 14:12 |
| israel strikes iran by march 31 2026 | 25 | $848 | 1,378 | 200 | +1,178 | open | — | 01-15 23:13 |
| us confirms havana syndromecausing device by march 31 | 28 | $841 | 1,611 | 0 | +1,611 | open | — | 02-14 20:29 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | 73 | $804 | 1,514 | 141 | +1,373 | open | — | 04-20 22:19 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | 31 | $774 | 1,015 | 1,881 | -867 | open | — | 04-08 17:49 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 22 | $767 | 4,669 | 5,635 | -966 | open | — | 03-25 19:21 |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | 30 | $741 | 1,422 | 1,293 | +129 | open | — | 06-09 13:08 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 48 | $685 | 1,353 | 1,293 | +59 | open | — | 06-08 02:38 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 41 | $645 | 1,916 | 1,862 | +55 | open | — | 06-08 12:38 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | 45 | $617 | 1,036 | 1,162 | -126 | open | — | 05-01 07:08 |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | 36 | $556 | 1,118 | 0 | +1,118 | open | — | 01-19 20:26 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | 62 | $548 | 3,692 | 4,016 | -324 | open | — | 06-09 17:18 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 22 | $514 | 2,279 | 1,300 | +979 | open | — | 06-08 09:12 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 16 | $495 | 1,132 | 1,171 | -39 | open | — | 06-09 16:59 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | 33 | $466 | 4,174 | 2,949 | +1,224 | open | — | 06-08 22:16 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | 29 | $460 | 1,134 | 794 | +340 | open | — | 06-07 05:58 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 21 | $458 | 961 | 617 | +344 | open | — | 06-08 05:30 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | 16 | $443 | 1,145 | 987 | +158 | open | — | 06-08 13:53 |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | 7 | $431 | 863 | 0 | +863 | open | — | 02-19 08:43 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | 35 | $427 | 5,526 | 2,950 | +2,576 | open | — | 06-05 17:16 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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