Realized P&L
-$3.10K
Unrealized P&L
-$43
Hit rate
72.7%
Resolved
4
Trades
9,577
lifetime
Volume
$79.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$3.01K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 18:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Other
52% 100% +$421
Politics
41% 50% $-3,523
Crypto
6%
Tech
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes +2,626 $265 $210 $-55 07-21 05:36
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes +2,644 $191 $182 $-9 07-20 12:13
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -4,004 $-234 $-178 +$55 07-05 15:16
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,546 $193 12¢ $178 $-15 07-20 15:30
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes +1,970 $318 $167 $-150 07-21 05:41
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -3,700 $-127 $-157 $-30 07-03 16:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes -1,155 $-127 14¢ $-156 $-29 07-07 14:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +977 $151 14¢ $132 $-19 07-08 19:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +504 $10 26¢ $129 +$118 07-20 12:02
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -294 $-121 42¢ $-122 $-1 07-10 12:22
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +259 $82 46¢ $118 +$36 07-19 10:36
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +394 $42 29¢ $112 +$70 07-20 14:26
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +739 $140 12¢ $92 $-47 07-21 15:44
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +334 $72 28¢ $92 +$20 07-10 10:09
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +1,210 $106 $91 $-16 07-12 20:50
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +468 $78 18¢ $84 +$6 07-21 14:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -384 $-125 22¢ $-82 +$43 07-20 12:17
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes -1,064 $-72 $-80 $-7 07-20 16:40
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes -675 $-93 12¢ $-78 +$16 07-17 08:26
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,570 $88 $71 $-17 07-20 20:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +198 $85 36¢ $70 $-14 06-28 08:39
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +252 $47 22¢ $54 +$7 07-20 06:50
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +173 $54 30¢ $53 $-1 07-20 20:08
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +405 $59 12¢ $51 $-8 07-20 19:43
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +470 $72 11¢ $49 $-22 07-10 19:08
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes +394 $42 12¢ $49 +$8 07-02 20:26
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +108 $21 44¢ $48 +$27 07-03 19:56
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes +2,407 $44 $47 +$3 06-10 02:59
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes +449 $52 10¢ $43 $-9 07-17 14:31
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes +170 $39 23¢ $39 $-0 07-20 14:53