Realized P&L
-$3.10K
Unrealized P&L
-$15
Hit rate
72.7%
Resolved
4
Trades
6,441
lifetime
Volume
$67.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$2.88K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 17:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Other
50%
100%
+$421
Politics
43%
50%
$-3,523
Crypto
7%
—
—
Tech
0%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk
• peak 199 trades/day
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 81 | $3.7K | 5,905 | 4,219 | +1,686 | Yes | +$253 | 05-05 06:56 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 39 | $2.7K | 4,167 | 0 | +4,167 | open | — | 02-28 03:51 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 87 | $2.6K | 11,720 | 16,106 | -4,386 | Yes | $-3,775 | 05-08 18:02 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 169 | $2.6K | 6,789 | 5,663 | +1,126 | open | — | 05-08 10:33 |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | 80 | $2.1K | 3,350 | 2,876 | +474 | Yes | +$238 | 05-07 22:04 |
| microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026 | 38 | $2.0K | 3,342 | 2,368 | +974 | open | — | 02-09 11:17 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | 78 | $1.7K | 4,760 | 4,549 | +211 | open | — | 06-30 17:32 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 94 | $1.5K | 4,460 | 4,109 | +351 | open | — | 06-26 09:56 |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | 83 | $1.3K | 1,121 | 1,269 | -149 | Yes | +$183 | 04-02 16:38 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 101 | $1.1K | 4,556 | 4,768 | -213 | open | — | 06-30 16:43 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 64 | $1.1K | 10,845 | 11,856 | -1,011 | open | — | 06-14 22:18 |
| x banned in uk by march 31 | 36 | $1.0K | 2,099 | 0 | +2,099 | open | — | 02-26 10:23 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | 89 | $1.0K | 2,758 | 2,193 | +565 | open | — | 06-29 12:32 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | 74 | $903 | 2,516 | 2,405 | +111 | open | — | 06-24 00:30 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | 21 | $892 | 1,740 | 359 | +1,381 | open | — | 03-17 14:12 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | 83 | $884 | 8,418 | 9,499 | -1,082 | open | — | 06-25 06:12 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 60 | $880 | 2,708 | 3,076 | -369 | open | — | 06-30 20:48 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 95 | $855 | 3,729 | 3,356 | +373 | open | — | 06-30 19:42 |
| israel strikes iran by march 31 2026 | 25 | $848 | 1,378 | 200 | +1,178 | open | — | 01-15 23:13 |
| us confirms havana syndromecausing device by march 31 | 28 | $841 | 1,611 | 0 | +1,611 | open | — | 02-14 20:29 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | 73 | $804 | 1,514 | 141 | +1,373 | open | — | 04-20 22:19 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 62 | $801 | 1,670 | 1,610 | +59 | open | — | 06-12 23:11 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | 31 | $774 | 1,015 | 1,881 | -867 | open | — | 04-08 17:49 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 22 | $767 | 4,669 | 5,635 | -966 | open | — | 03-25 19:21 |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | 48 | $764 | 1,531 | 1,403 | +129 | open | — | 06-13 10:45 |
| israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026 | 71 | $739 | 4,615 | 4,635 | -19 | open | — | 06-28 17:31 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 73 | $731 | 3,434 | 3,071 | +363 | open | — | 06-29 15:45 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 146 | $670 | 4,947 | 2,840 | +2,108 | open | — | 06-24 01:35 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | 84 | $642 | 2,897 | 3,346 | -449 | open | — | 06-30 16:44 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | 45 | $617 | 1,036 | 1,162 | -126 | open | — | 05-01 07:08 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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