Breakable-Stepsister — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.10K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

Trades

10,958

lifetime

Volume

$84.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 05:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$421

Politics

41% 50% $-3,523

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	81	$3.7K	5,905	4,219	+1,686	Yes	+$253	05-05 06:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	39	$2.7K	4,167	0	+4,167	open	—	02-28 03:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	87	$2.6K	11,720	16,106	-4,386	Yes	$-3,775	05-08 18:02
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	169	$2.6K	6,789	5,663	+1,126	open	—	05-08 10:33
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	162	$2.4K	7,956	7,754	+202	open	—	08-09 23:30
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	80	$2.1K	3,350	2,876	+474	Yes	+$238	05-07 22:04
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	38	$2.0K	3,342	2,368	+974	open	—	02-09 11:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	124	$2.0K	5,768	5,418	+351	open	—	08-02 05:23
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	209	$1.6K	5,483	4,932	+551	open	—	08-11 08:01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	133	$1.5K	4,845	4,733	+111	open	—	07-20 14:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	213	$1.5K	8,027	6,746	+1,281	open	—	08-10 01:46
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	158	$1.3K	4,811	5,124	-313	open	—	08-11 07:30
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	83	$1.3K	1,121	1,269	-149	Yes	+$183	04-02 16:38
New pandemic in 2026?	184	$1.3K	7,952	8,217	-265	open	—	08-09 15:42
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	248	$1.2K	6,905	6,873	+32	open	—	08-03 20:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	73	$1.1K	2,636	2,420	+216	open	—	08-03 12:45
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	64	$1.1K	10,845	11,856	-1,011	open	—	06-14 22:18
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	181	$1.1K	5,023	4,674	+349	open	—	08-07 21:07
x banned in uk by march 31	36	$1.0K	2,099	0	+2,099	open	—	02-26 10:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	68	$990	1,777	1,706	+71	open	—	08-10 20:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	103	$953	10,574	11,653	-1,079	open	—	07-31 18:07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	40	$896	1,202	1,343	-141	open	—	07-31 11:39
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	121	$893	4,212	4,855	-643	open	—	08-04 03:32
GTA VI released before June 2026?	21	$892	1,740	359	+1,381	open	—	03-17 14:12
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	25	$848	1,378	200	+1,178	open	—	01-15 23:13
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	197	$846	6,647	4,539	+2,108	open	—	07-20 12:13
us confirms havana syndromecausing device by march 31	28	$841	1,611	0	+1,611	open	—	02-14 20:29
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	106	$811	2,436	2,346	+90	open	—	07-24 13:55
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	73	$804	1,514	141	+1,373	open	—	04-20 22:19
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	62	$801	1,670	1,610	+59	open	—	06-12 23:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 09:28:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x4354b2…
08-11 08:27:19	meloni out as prime minister of italy by december 31	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x94cac8…
08-11 08:01:39	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0xfb11c9…
08-11 08:01:25	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x4bd1a2…
08-11 08:00:18	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0xa00e39…
08-11 08:00:15	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	17¢	$2	0x558132…
08-11 07:53:10	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0xfff830…
08-11 07:30:36	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	47	12¢	$6	0x6ab29a…
08-11 07:01:13	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0xdcd53a…
08-11 05:31:15	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	BUY	118	5¢	$6	0x56c823…
08-11 03:04:24	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xef5e63…
08-11 03:04:04	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	12¢	$4	0x026ced…
08-11 02:56:57	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	10¢	$3	0xdb89b5…
08-11 02:56:45	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	12¢	$3	0xe0b0eb…
08-11 01:52:01	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x7fb05a…
08-10 22:43:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x5867d9…
08-10 20:54:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0x183673…
08-10 19:49:07	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	4¢	$3	0x994dce…
08-10 19:49:03	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	136	4¢	$5	0x071dc5…
08-10 19:21:13	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0xc37c9f…
08-10 18:45:39	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	37¢	$11	0x8af060…
08-10 18:29:43	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	10¢	$4	0x6c1b7b…
08-10 17:32:43	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x5013ce…
08-10 15:52:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	71	15¢	$11	0x93d7ff…
08-10 15:45:54	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0xb169c5…
08-10 15:29:12	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	8¢	$2	0x3a5837…
08-10 15:08:07	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x5e2f7b…
08-10 14:55:09	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x24410a…
08-10 14:15:04	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0xf55747…
08-10 13:58:37	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	10¢	$3	0x1fd939…
08-10 13:10:54	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0x85f9b3…
08-10 12:05:22	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xcb4302…
08-10 11:07:06	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0x6c560b…
08-10 11:01:19	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xc09fcb…
08-10 06:55:18	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xac28c6…
08-10 06:46:46	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x4e474a…
08-10 06:46:33	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x0e2ba1…
08-10 06:29:33	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xab0d16…
08-10 06:13:31	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	6¢	$2	0x12f9e3…
08-10 04:42:51	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0xf4c2f2…
08-10 01:46:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2c4efd…
08-10 01:46:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x07cfb6…
08-10 01:01:24	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0x6ece53…
08-10 00:35:19	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xb2d3df…
08-09 23:50:39	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	23¢	$11	0x6e72ea…
08-09 23:50:37	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x9c8b83…
08-09 23:30:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x1cf6f5…
08-09 21:13:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	216	8¢	$17	0xfc5e31…
08-09 21:13:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0xc799f4…
08-09 21:02:25	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	354	3¢	$12	0x5b7491…
08-09 20:53:46	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0x3d993f…
08-09 19:02:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	264	7¢	$18	0x7c13b3…
08-09 18:18:55	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0xed3afd…
08-09 17:39:39	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xc5ebcc…
08-09 17:38:15	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0xbab3d6…
08-09 17:37:13	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	11¢	$6	0xe6ecd0…
08-09 17:26:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x8fa894…
08-09 17:13:39	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xe131f1…
08-09 17:13:24	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xbd3871…
08-09 16:11:28	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x93fbc5…
08-09 15:51:31	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	10¢	$2	0xebdb25…
08-09 15:49:21	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x57d700…
08-09 15:42:03	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	6¢	$2	0x50f5a7…
08-09 15:27:40	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x1fc03f…
08-09 15:20:12	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	16¢	$3	0xa3284a…
08-09 15:01:49	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0x21712d…
08-09 14:38:58	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	21¢	$3	0x302de1…
08-09 14:27:04	trump meets with putin by september 30	Yes	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x4e00e6…
08-09 14:24:48	trump meets with putin by september 30	Yes	SELL	31	9¢	$3	0xc923e8…
08-09 14:24:46	trump meets with putin by september 30	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x1d4e1e…
08-09 12:24:12	Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0xe4f02c…
08-09 12:24:12	Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0x3c1cc9…
08-09 07:43:46	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0x55c856…
08-09 07:06:19	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x00d96a…
08-09 05:21:31	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x8a9e49…
08-09 04:19:46	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	15¢	$4	0x350582…
08-09 00:46:54	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Yes	SELL	120	5¢	$6	0xd6379c…
08-09 00:29:16	OPEC dissolves in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	5¢	$4	0xbfd79a…
08-09 00:26:33	OPEC dissolves in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0xe866b7…
08-09 00:14:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x1ff440…
08-08 22:08:01	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	5¢	$6	0xbcfd1b…
08-08 22:02:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x0f0b58…
08-08 20:53:43	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	BUY	46	10¢	$5	0x527b73…
08-08 20:13:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0xcd1e47…
08-08 17:53:07	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	16	20¢	$3	0x121c1a…
08-08 16:53:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	199	7¢	$14	0xdd26c5…
08-08 15:31:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	46	10¢	$5	0x4fcbdd…
08-08 15:05:51	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xef7185…
08-08 13:51:37	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	198	10¢	$20	0xe964e1…
08-08 13:14:15	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0xc77de2…
08-08 12:03:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$1	0x8659bb…
08-08 12:01:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x53d124…
08-08 12:00:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	127	8¢	$10	0x9ff1ce…
08-08 12:00:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xdf8f07…
08-08 11:31:01	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x67d840…
08-08 10:15:21	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0xa12771…
08-08 10:14:09	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x76ce38…
08-08 10:13:12	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x042afe…
08-08 09:57:37	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0x3dd606…
08-08 07:48:22	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xebae9f…