Realized P&L
-$3.10K
Unrealized P&L
-$15
Hit rate
72.7%
Resolved
4
Trades
6,441
lifetime
Volume
$67.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$2.88K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 17:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Other
50% 100% +$421
Politics
43% 50% $-3,523
Crypto
7%
Tech
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 199 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes +1,948 $311 16¢ $321 +$11 06-26 18:29
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes +2,241 $244 11¢ $235 $-9 06-29 15:45
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes +2,307 $183 $196 +$13 06-24 01:35
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,247 $182 14¢ $168 $-13 06-30 20:48
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -2,490 $-162 $-141 +$21 05-29 16:59
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +953 $148 12¢ $119 $-29 06-29 21:05
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +292 $123 40¢ $117 $-6 06-30 14:57
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +1,108 $109 10¢ $105 $-4 06-27 09:43
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +718 $148 15¢ $104 $-43 06-29 12:32
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +519 $89 20¢ $104 +$15 06-30 19:38
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -1,152 $-104 $-98 +$6 06-30 16:43
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +545 $79 16¢ $90 +$11 06-30 06:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +198 $85 43¢ $85 +$1 06-28 08:39
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +943 $90 $80 $-9 06-30 15:25
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +576 $125 14¢ $78 $-47 06-24 00:30
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -145 $-79 48¢ $-69 +$10 05-28 07:05
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +134 $38 50¢ $68 +$29 06-22 06:22
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +458 $56 15¢ $66 +$11 06-26 09:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -215 $-84 30¢ $-65 +$20 06-12 18:59
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes -488 $-76 13¢ $-63 +$13 06-30 02:03
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,143 $67 $63 $-4 06-23 11:06
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes +2,689 $60 $61 +$0 06-07 07:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +182 $43 32¢ $59 +$16 06-11 19:18
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +269 $50 20¢ $55 +$5 06-22 06:40
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +334 $72 16¢ $55 $-17 06-30 00:37
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes -252 $-19 18¢ $-47 $-27 06-07 23:05
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes +2,407 $44 $45 +$0 06-10 02:59
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes +402 $43 11¢ $44 +$2 06-29 22:56
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +94 $35 42¢ $39 +$4 06-27 13:11
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes -270 $-45 14¢ $-38 +$7 06-30 01:11