Few-Prevention — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.49K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.2%

Resolved

Trades

50,508

lifetime

Volume

$1.55M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 05:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

50% 62% +$983

Politics

37% 60% +$8,542

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

3% 0% $-36

Tech

3% 0% $-2

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 548 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	11,019	$72.4K	4,081,032	3,779,542	+301,489	open	—	04-10 06:50
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	91	$42.2K	33,090	40,090	-7,000	open	—	02-28 06:50
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	133	$26.7K	25,293	23,515	+1,778	open	—	07-04 13:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	561	$25.7K	109,730	109,730	+0	open	—	04-06 05:47
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	442	$25.0K	132,838	130,672	+2,166	open	—	01-15 14:48
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	206	$24.5K	21,813	17,889	+3,923	open	—	02-08 11:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	521	$22.5K	217,390	209,291	+8,099	open	—	04-09 23:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	74	$20.5K	38,273	39,653	-1,380	open	—	02-18 16:37
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	384	$19.6K	277,126	249,448	+27,678	open	—	03-24 18:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	394	$16.4K	89,980	82,440	+7,540	Yes	+$8,174	05-07 16:44
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1,369	$14.5K	647,110	573,071	+74,039	open	—	02-08 09:42
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	214	$14.4K	21,972	14,812	+7,159	open	—	02-08 13:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	16	$13.2K	16,555	16,555	+0	Yes	+$18	05-08 14:07
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	91	$11.0K	31,171	28,171	+3,000	open	—	02-28 07:30
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	88	$10.8K	18,303	8,984	+9,318	open	—	01-26 22:30
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	296	$10.3K	58,363	61,547	-3,184	open	—	08-07 13:38
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	77	$10.0K	19,762	17,725	+2,038	open	—	02-11 00:44
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	56	$10.0K	12,945	11,811	+1,133	open	—	01-21 07:38
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	12	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	02-10 03:37
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?	64	$8.6K	10,741	10,741	+0	open	—	05-21 01:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	155	$8.5K	15,282	16,176	-894	open	—	02-25 12:07
will the us next strike iran on january 15 2026 et 421	329	$8.4K	18,030	17,741	+289	open	—	01-15 14:46
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	103	$8.3K	9,965	9,548	+417	open	—	04-28 13:53
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	10	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-12 06:29
will the government shutdown last 60 days or more 286 461 927 735 666	18	$7.4K	6,797	6,213	+584	open	—	01-28 01:26
will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by july 15 20260608233701772	46	$7.4K	10,581	3,537	+7,045	open	—	06-16 14:21
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	158	$7.0K	36,825	12,726	+24,099	open	—	08-10 07:31
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	27	$6.8K	12,324	7,121	+5,204	open	—	06-14 16:10
Iran leadership change by April 30?	87	$6.7K	17,393	18,343	-950	open	—	04-18 13:37
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 3 6	53	$6.4K	3,580	3,580	+0	open	—	04-11 13:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 07:31:43	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	125	10¢	$12	0xb45ff3…
08-10 05:14:42	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$40	0x72047e…
08-10 04:49:24	will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x82b73a…
08-10 04:27:00	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	SELL	3,800	4¢	$137	0x4cdafc…
08-10 03:37:54	Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7be586…
08-10 02:11:27	will the highest score achieved by a google gemini model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 65 or higher 20260723192605549	Yes	BUY	150	13¢	$20	0xde709b…
08-10 01:02:19	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	SELL	666	4¢	$24	0xa82cdf…
08-10 00:43:54	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$6	0xbd434f…
08-10 00:42:52	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0xbd4b1d…
08-10 00:42:52	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0x22369a…
08-10 00:39:10	Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xa92b3f…
08-10 00:05:51	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	SELL	79	4¢	$3	0x45b1b4…
08-09 23:53:09	Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x115f67…
08-09 23:20:49	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	BUY	4,686	3¢	$156	0x2135bc…
08-09 23:05:07	will tom brady announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241669	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x775b05…
08-09 22:49:34	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	Yes	BUY	1,265	6¢	$76	0x14de78…
08-09 22:10:30	will vest launch a token by september 30 2026 20260708174029216	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xfa873a…
08-09 19:26:51	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	Yes	SELL	489	11¢	$54	0x5bd098…
08-09 19:23:42	will warsh be out as fed chair by december 31 2026 20260723173503767	Yes	SELL	594	6¢	$36	0x74ac68…
08-09 19:21:18	iran leadership change by november 30	Yes	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0xcf1921…
08-09 19:04:18	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x1a4f4f…
08-09 19:04:06	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xa5b9d8…
08-09 18:47:30	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	33	10¢	$3	0x122e75…
08-09 15:50:46	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x92cdf7…
08-09 15:28:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x4e47a3…
08-09 15:21:46	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	Yes	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0xd78570…
08-09 15:21:04	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	396	9¢	$36	0xc1ae95…
08-09 15:20:45	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	144	9¢	$13	0xc5fcd4…
08-09 15:20:45	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xa1a300…
08-09 15:20:45	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0x286999…
08-09 15:11:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xb32ef1…
08-09 15:09:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xdea9f2…
08-09 14:54:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	117	6¢	$7	0x0ff3e6…
08-09 14:37:19	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	No	BUY	120	77¢	$92	0x8710f0…
08-09 14:35:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	333	6¢	$20	0xa3a942…
08-09 14:34:34	will kim kardashian announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241643	Yes	SELL	605	13¢	$79	0xfab269…
08-09 14:30:39	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	No	BUY	57	75¢	$43	0x17b62c…
08-09 13:57:19	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x9474f1…
08-09 13:57:16	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x28c4e6…
08-09 13:57:13	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xb28511…
08-09 13:57:12	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x603751…
08-09 13:57:10	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	No	BUY	120	70¢	$84	0x9cdb0d…
08-09 13:57:06	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xb5a77a…
08-09 13:57:06	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x8af63c…
08-09 13:54:39	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x5e21a2…
08-09 13:53:19	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x305e89…
08-09 13:52:27	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	Yes	BUY	120	9¢	$11	0x1ddaa8…
08-09 13:51:37	will bernie sanders announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241632	Yes	BUY	372	9¢	$33	0x8c6413…
08-09 13:47:12	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x08267b…
08-09 13:47:09	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x9df6d0…
08-09 13:45:55	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	Yes	BUY	22	36¢	$8	0x35b64d…
08-09 13:45:07	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	Yes	BUY	80	11¢	$8	0x00dbf1…
08-09 13:43:52	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	Yes	BUY	140	9¢	$13	0xd1526d…
08-09 13:42:13	will liz cheney announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241631	Yes	BUY	414	9¢	$36	0x3ba44e…
08-09 13:41:12	will mike pence announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241665	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x89ba5a…
08-09 13:38:43	will john thune announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241663	Yes	BUY	23	14¢	$3	0xa8facc…
08-09 13:26:45	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xa58207…
08-09 13:23:58	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	Yes	BUY	1,022	10¢	$102	0x733ede…
08-09 13:23:34	will warsh be out as fed chair by december 31 2026 20260723173503767	Yes	BUY	1,721	5¢	$86	0xeb946a…
08-09 12:49:57	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	Yes	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0x44ee90…
08-09 12:47:34	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x47b384…
08-09 12:47:31	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x7041e5…
08-09 12:47:24	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xa10737…
08-09 12:47:16	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x88effd…
08-09 12:47:12	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0xd1a6bc…
08-09 12:47:07	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x8a3b5b…
08-09 12:38:36	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	Yes	SELL	80	46¢	$37	0x5f2e1a…
08-09 12:28:55	will jon stewart announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241628	Yes	BUY	749	12¢	$91	0x2da81a…
08-09 12:26:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x46ceab…
08-09 11:08:28	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	SELL	962	30¢	$289	0xdd0aef…
08-09 11:08:00	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	SELL	560	60¢	$336	0xadce7e…
08-09 10:59:25	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x980130…
08-09 10:59:24	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x45e5e5…
08-09 10:58:45	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x8d46bd…
08-09 10:58:43	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xa6b227…
08-09 10:58:43	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x128576…
08-09 10:58:42	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x601b7c…
08-09 10:58:39	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xebdeb5…
08-09 10:58:39	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	61	60¢	$36	0x9186da…
08-09 10:57:10	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	BUY	250	31¢	$78	0x03982a…
08-09 10:50:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	228	6¢	$14	0x45e5cd…
08-09 10:50:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	72	6¢	$4	0x18786f…
08-09 10:47:01	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0x146812…
08-09 10:44:45	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	No	SELL	113	42¢	$47	0x93646d…
08-09 10:35:09	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 26 20260808192512606	No	SELL	124	18¢	$22	0xd19394…
08-09 10:05:57	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	BUY	1,642	4¢	$62	0xe2b57e…
08-09 09:57:16	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	BUY	24	29¢	$7	0x4625ea…
08-09 09:53:48	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	BUY	358	4¢	$14	0x55b1cf…
08-09 09:47:21	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 31 20260808192512607	Yes	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0xc8134a…
08-09 09:45:42	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	212	57¢	$121	0xeb92c6…
08-09 09:44:07	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x181d46…
08-09 09:32:54	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xad610b…
08-09 09:32:54	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	No	SELL	300	42¢	$126	0x37902b…
08-09 09:23:22	Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xa8f425…
08-09 09:12:54	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x1a05d8…
08-09 09:10:16	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	BUY	84	29¢	$24	0x0acd86…
08-09 09:08:33	will mike pence announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241665	Yes	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0xbc0327…
08-09 09:06:31	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	No	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x91b01f…
08-09 09:03:37	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	No	BUY	373	41¢	$153	0x6d79f5…
08-09 09:00:21	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	BUY	215	30¢	$65	0xd660c6…