Flamboyant-Merit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$48

Hit rate

60.3%

Resolved

11,660

Trades

52,098

lifetime

Volume

$479.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$2.45K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-12 14:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 214 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 77% -$812

Other

36% 35% -$7,537

Politics

9% 29% -$1,354

Sports

2% 34% -$410

Tech

2% 24% -$384

Pop-Culture

0% 29% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 475 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-703	-$493	97¢	$-680	-$188	10-12 14:05
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	+396	$320	78¢	$311	-$9	09-08 23:06
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	+138	$121	86¢	$119	-$2	09-09 10:12
us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	No	+119	$86	97¢	$115	+$29	07-14 14:53
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	+111	$100	96¢	$107	+$8	09-21 11:29
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	+100	$91	97¢	$97	+$6	07-26 10:28
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-100	-$83	96¢	$-96	-$12	10-12 14:03
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No	+396	$73	22¢	$85	+$12	08-28 19:50
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	+85	$74	88¢	$74	+$1	09-15 20:00
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-136	-$95	55¢	$-74	+$21	06-16 09:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-136	-$41	46¢	$-62	-$21	06-16 20:15
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	+60	$49	94¢	$57	+$7	09-07 15:37
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	+50	$17	98¢	$49	+$32	07-14 10:14
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	No	-50	-$17	88¢	$-44	-$27	06-25 00:32
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	-40	-$37	98¢	$-39	-$2	06-24 09:55
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	+40	$28	97¢	$39	+$11	07-31 16:48
will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	Yes	+60	$58	64¢	$39	-$20	09-13 05:30
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	-40	-$18	94¢	$-38	-$20	06-27 04:41
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Yes	+52	$35	72¢	$37	+$3	07-27 15:07
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+35	$24	98¢	$35	+$11	08-02 07:19
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+65	$53	52¢	$34	-$20	09-04 08:30
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+39	$23	86¢	$34	+$11	07-03 21:32
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+65	$15	48¢	$31	+$16	10-12 14:02
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+30	$10	89¢	$27	+$17	10-12 14:02
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	-28	-$15	88¢	$-25	-$10	06-28 05:32
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	-703	-$207	3¢	$-22	+$184	06-17 09:17
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	+60	$15	36¢	$21	+$7	09-24 07:32
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-24	-$19	82¢	$-20	-$1	06-22 18:12
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Yes	+138	$15	14¢	$19	+$4	09-06 05:01
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	+20	$17	94¢	$19	+$2	08-02 13:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	107	$2.1K	0	4,243	-4,243	No	-$8	06-17 19:40
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	172	$1.6K	0	3,222	-3,222	Yes	-$18	06-14 22:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	124	$1.2K	0	2,306	-2,306	No	+$8	06-19 16:38
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	127	$1.1K	0	2,271	-2,271	No	+$3	06-15 00:05
us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	16	$1.1K	1,748	428	+1,320	Yes	-$5	07-27 10:26
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 13:00 UTC	18	$1.0K	1,193	0	+1,193	Down	-$193	02-13 13:13
ethereum up or down february 14 5am et	7	$991	510	510	+0	Down	+$29	02-14 12:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 11:30 UTC	2	$961	1,106	0	+1,106	Up	-$961	02-13 11:34
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	10	$960	1,200	399	+801	No	-$19	07-27 12:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 11:00 UTC	2	$953	1,048	0	+1,048	Down	+$95	02-13 11:11
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 10:45 UTC	3	$881	1,004	0	+1,004	Down	+$123	02-13 10:58
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	11	$865	1,399	201	+1,197	Yes	-$4	08-03 23:32
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	22	$856	1,342	242	+1,100	Yes	-$7	07-25 21:42
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	30	$803	460	420	+40	Yes	+$23	09-02 12:39
will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	37	$801	0	1,670	-1,670	Yes	-$34	06-19 23:58
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 12:15 UTC	48	$796	952	0	+952	Up	+$155	02-13 12:23
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	25	$763	871	556	+315	Yes	-$47	07-27 12:47
solana up or down february 14 5am et	5	$759	392	392	+0	Down	+$24	02-14 12:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 13:25 UTC	50	$746	1,728	0	+1,728	Down	+$18	02-16 13:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 12:25 UTC	38	$738	803	0	+803	Up	+$38	02-16 12:27
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	34	$718	0	1,415	-1,415	Yes	+$10	06-20 22:44
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	47	$700	0	1,406	-1,406	open	—	10-12 14:05
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	12	$698	1,264	64	+1,200	No	+$12	07-26 10:37
will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	24	$686	1,290	262	+1,028	Yes	-$6	07-28 06:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 13:00 UTC	7	$673	783	0	+783	Down	+$110	02-12 13:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 23:10 UTC	35	$664	1,344	0	+1,344	Up	+$31	02-15 23:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 12:40 UTC	41	$658	1,148	0	+1,148	Down	+$16	02-16 12:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 19:35 UTC	24	$654	1,002	0	+1,002	Down	+$23	02-15 19:39
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	12	$646	1,300	0	+1,300	Yes	+$4	07-26 03:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 03:05 UTC	31	$624	1,073	0	+1,073	Up	+$13	02-16 03:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 14:05:41	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xb7673f…
10-12 14:05:41	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x06b2d8…
10-12 14:05:39	Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x1677a4…
10-12 14:05:38	Will Rayan Cherki (Man City) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xfd96f3…
10-12 14:05:38	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xcedc0a…
10-12 14:05:36	Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x89e280…
10-12 14:05:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x1ef62a…
10-12 14:05:35	Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$0	0x2b7621…
10-12 14:05:35	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x1bc24c…
10-12 14:05:33	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x114007…
10-12 14:05:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KY-01 House election?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xc7d7de…
10-12 14:05:32	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	SELL	1	57¢	$0	0x6ae909…
10-12 14:05:32	Will Ashton Jeanty have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x18b756…
10-12 14:05:30	Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xdb7a3c…
10-12 14:05:30	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x3d4c33…
10-12 14:05:29	Will Resident Evil Requiem win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xbab693…
10-12 14:05:29	Will France win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x17d1d5…
10-12 14:05:27	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xf6b1e0…
10-12 14:05:27	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x7635d6…
10-12 14:05:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0x4ea24d…
10-12 14:05:26	Perena FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x6a8475…
10-12 14:05:26	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x58b1e2…
10-12 14:05:24	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SD-AL House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xceaee8…
10-12 14:05:24	Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xc12a14…
10-12 14:05:23	Will Republicans sweep the Iowa Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xca278f…
10-12 14:05:23	Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0xbb704a…
10-12 14:05:23	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x3e4f88…
10-12 14:05:21	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0x5450cc…
10-12 14:05:21	Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x13c543…
10-12 14:05:21	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x139c44…
10-12 14:05:20	Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x978798…
10-12 14:05:18	Will the Democratic Party control the Minnesota Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0x993e1c…
10-12 14:05:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-10 House election by 80%-85%?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x74b4b9…
10-12 14:05:18	Will LI.FI launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x659277…
10-12 14:05:17	Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x969eb0…
10-12 14:05:15	Will Aileen Cannon be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Yes	SELL	39	11¢	$4	0xf6bd17…
10-12 14:05:15	Will RZP-Zehut win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	55	10¢	$6	0x6b267e…
10-12 14:05:14	Will Phil Owen win the next Brighton mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	65	2¢	$1	0xd6a80e…
10-12 14:05:14	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$0	0xb61f72…
10-12 14:05:14	Will Lionel Messi retire before 1 July 2027?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$1	0x550cb1…
10-12 14:04:48	Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xed2660…
10-12 14:04:48	Will CF Monterrey finish the 2026-27 Liga MX season with the best combined goal differential?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x92b07d…
10-12 14:04:47	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be 2,600,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xe89fe1…
10-12 14:04:47	Will Rutgers have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x0ad038…
10-12 14:04:45	Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x9e33d4…
10-12 14:04:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-02 House election by 10%-20%?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x9705d1…
10-12 14:04:44	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x969282…
10-12 14:04:41	Will María Teresa Guerra Ochoa win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xdfda04…
10-12 14:04:41	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-13 House election by 0%-15%?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x7226c4…
10-12 14:04:41	Will Newcastle United finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6b6a10…
10-12 14:04:39	Will Cyril Xaba be the next mayor of eThekwini?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x35a21d…
10-12 14:04:38	Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xf551c6…
10-12 14:04:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 45% or more?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xd41297…
10-12 14:04:38	Will I Just Might (Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x53204e…
10-12 14:04:36	Will Frosinone finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa69567…
10-12 14:04:36	Will Fiorentina finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x7bd791…
10-12 14:04:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xdeade3…
10-12 14:04:32	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be 6,500,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xeff38b…
10-12 14:04:32	Will Alan Campbell be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xa934e1…
10-12 14:04:32	Will AVAX dip to $3 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x6a48d4…
10-12 14:04:30	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -2.4% and -1.6%?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xf69b24…
10-12 14:04:30	Will Juwan Johnson have 374.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xc99917…
10-12 14:04:30	Will Werder Bremen qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x59c878…
10-12 14:04:29	Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xa5e785…
10-12 14:04:27	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xc70500…
10-12 14:04:27	Will Bournemouth qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0xc5a184…
10-12 14:04:27	Will Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?	No	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0xa0e896…
10-12 14:04:24	Will Udinese finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x81192c…
10-12 14:04:23	Will Osasuna finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x2cf3df…
10-12 14:04:23	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 2.4% and 3.2%?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x0af672…
10-12 14:04:21	Will over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xcc4b1c…
10-12 14:04:21	Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x63567f…
10-12 14:04:18	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xea7294…
10-12 14:04:18	Will Anne Marie Dryden win the 2026 Nanaimo mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xd1850d…
10-12 14:04:17	Will Jeff Knoll win the 2026 Oakville mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xff24c1…
10-12 14:04:17	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x997ae2…
10-12 14:04:15	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x686b9c…
10-12 14:04:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 15%-18%?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x593ebd…
10-12 14:04:15	Will Excelsior be relegated from the 2026-27 Eredivisie?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x499ccd…
10-12 14:04:14	Will Real Sociedad be relegated from the 2026-27 LaLiga?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x67bc2b…
10-12 14:04:14	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be 3,200,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x5755d2…
10-12 14:04:12	Will James Cook III be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x72ef49…
10-12 14:04:12	Will Parker Washington have 549.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x60d5f4…
10-12 14:04:11	Will Bayern Munich reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?	No	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x995e87…
10-12 14:04:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-25 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x04b44a…
10-12 14:04:09	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x26c50a…
10-12 14:04:09	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x09db15…
10-12 14:04:08	US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xbc0823…
10-12 14:04:08	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x8ef0bd…
10-12 14:04:08	Will Brad Pitt be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x0065c0…
10-12 14:04:06	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x7ae155…
10-12 14:04:06	Will Man I Need (Olivia Dean) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x07c68a…
10-12 14:04:05	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be 450,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xf15df3…
10-12 14:04:05	Linera listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xa8824d…
10-12 14:04:03	Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xd1f8a7…
10-12 14:04:03	Will Chainlink dip to $6 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x8a9606…
10-12 14:04:02	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31?	No	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x7a66c6…
10-12 14:04:02	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-11 House election by 35% or more?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x57f830…
10-12 14:04:02	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0x1197e5…
10-12 14:04:00	Will Swim – BTS be the top song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xfbf3be…