Decimal-Covariate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$558

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,000

lifetime

Volume

$198.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$99

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 18:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$183

Other

48% 100% +$375

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	27	$8.8K	4,837	4,837	+0	open	—	07-14 18:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	23	$5.6K	4,408	4,408	+0	open	—	08-04 20:51
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	6	$5.5K	3,100	3,100	+0	open	—	04-22 05:54
James Comey mugshot released by May 5?	15	$5.0K	2,700	2,700	+0	No	+$375	05-05 05:11
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	16	$4.2K	2,487	2,487	+0	open	—	08-02 02:20
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	15	$4.1K	2,373	2,378	-5	open	—	05-29 21:49
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	9	$3.7K	4,495	1,204	+3,291	Yes	+$135	05-08 12:55
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	9	$3.6K	1,600	2,700	-1,100	open	—	01-15 20:04
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	13	$3.5K	1,997	1,997	+0	open	—	08-02 02:27
Will Comey smile in his mugshot?	6	$3.3K	1,671	1,671	+0	open	—	05-25 23:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	6	$3.2K	2,465	2,465	+0	open	—	07-02 20:26
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	13	$3.1K	2,724	2,682	+41	open	—	05-16 11:22
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	9	$2.8K	4,051	1,000	+3,051	open	—	08-01 19:55
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	16	$2.8K	2,044	2,044	+0	open	—	05-21 20:44
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	18	$2.8K	3,487	1,246	+2,241	open	—	07-25 03:11
James Comey arrested by April 29?	13	$2.6K	2,700	600	+2,100	open	—	04-29 18:29
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?	11	$2.6K	1,470	1,466	+4	open	—	05-12 17:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$2.5K	1,599	1,599	+0	open	—	06-01 04:50
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	4	$2.5K	1,918	1,918	+0	open	—	07-25 17:51
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	13	$2.3K	2,364	0	+2,364	open	—	01-07 11:35
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	14	$2.2K	2,234	2,234	+0	open	—	06-19 22:00
will a trailer for spider man brand new day premiere at sdcc 2026 20260713164810624	6	$2.2K	1,538	1,488	+50	open	—	07-26 03:21
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	13	$2.1K	1,460	1,460	+0	open	—	02-02 18:50
moscow air traffic suspended by july 31 20260702184246099	40	$1.9K	1,266	1,266	+0	open	—	07-08 00:12
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	5	$1.9K	1,765	1,765	+0	open	—	08-09 18:01
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	7	$1.8K	981	981	+0	open	—	07-18 04:04
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	4	$1.8K	1,302	1,302	+0	open	—	05-16 10:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	9	$1.8K	1,366	1,366	+0	open	—	05-25 18:29
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	16	$1.7K	1,353	1,353	+0	open	—	06-19 14:31
will hasanabi be unbanned from twitch by march 31 678	3	$1.6K	1,662	0	+1,662	open	—	02-02 04:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 18:21:24	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xade39a…
08-10 18:18:01	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	500	56¢	$280	0x9f8498…
08-10 16:19:30	will loki die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259193	Yes	BUY	26	54¢	$14	0x9f9894…
08-10 16:19:24	will loki die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259193	Yes	BUY	104	55¢	$57	0x1dcab3…
08-10 16:19:01	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x6e95eb…
08-10 16:18:52	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	175	64¢	$112	0x5776a0…
08-10 16:18:42	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	264	48¢	$126	0x252735…
08-10 10:42:03	will loki die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259193	Yes	BUY	26	52¢	$13	0xdc4454…
08-10 10:41:55	will loki die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259193	Yes	BUY	104	55¢	$57	0x41e400…
08-09 19:31:43	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long 20260807064756494	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0xae97d8…
08-09 18:01:01	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	1,765	60¢	$1,059	0x3e5a5f…
08-08 16:07:03	will loki die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259193	Yes	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x50c1b2…
08-08 11:35:31	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long 20260807064756494	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$23	0x4bc0f2…
08-08 05:56:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	194	28¢	$54	0x736140…
08-08 05:53:34	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	419	61¢	$255	0xe0c79f…
08-08 05:35:40	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long 20260807064756492	Yes	BUY	793	74¢	$586	0x110c6f…
08-08 04:55:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	800	57¢	$456	0x863894…
08-07 05:53:27	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	Yes	SELL	162	100¢	$162	0x1a92f4…
08-07 04:12:12	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	Yes	BUY	280	100¢	$279	0xb2eb02…
08-05 14:11:53	will spider man die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259199	Yes	SELL	34	69¢	$24	0x47763a…
08-05 11:31:38	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x1b6fef…
08-05 11:31:27	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0dbed1…
08-05 09:59:17	will spider man die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259199	Yes	SELL	11	69¢	$7	0xf2ca04…
08-05 03:07:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	305	48¢	$146	0x7a44b3…
08-05 03:05:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	22	47¢	$11	0x6e27d4…
08-04 20:51:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,624	24¢	$390	0x53b58f…
08-04 15:14:48	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	Yes	BUY	323	100¢	$322	0x2a03a3…
08-04 14:41:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	291	49¢	$141	0x44c256…
08-04 08:50:23	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	646	37¢	$239	0xabf040…
08-03 11:45:33	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	298	1¢	$4	0xecf142…
08-03 05:15:00	will spider man die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259199	Yes	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0xaa0bda…
08-02 23:46:35	will spider man brand new day score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026311	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9a44cd…
08-02 18:45:48	will spider man brand new day score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026312	Yes	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0x06eb9a…
08-02 18:45:41	will spider man brand new day score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026311	Yes	BUY	199	100¢	$198	0xe1a93a…
08-02 18:28:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	287	41¢	$118	0x67026d…
08-02 18:27:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	413	23¢	$95	0x0396e4…
08-02 17:20:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x372239…
08-02 17:17:26	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	500	41¢	$205	0xc69a9b…
08-02 17:15:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0x5f3f87…
08-02 05:07:47	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	SELL	154	51¢	$78	0x72c9f3…
08-02 05:04:30	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x9721cd…
08-02 02:50:36	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	124	41¢	$51	0x09c2a0…
08-02 02:27:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	1,997	98¢	$1,967	0x077759…
08-02 02:20:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xc96666…
08-02 02:19:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	416	96¢	$400	0x87ab13…
08-02 02:19:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3e8817…
08-02 02:19:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xad2e98…
08-02 02:19:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	2,067	96¢	$1,984	0xc7bef3…
08-02 02:19:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf2475b…
08-02 02:18:51	will any ai model reach a chatbot arena score of at least 1520 by december 31	No	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x5c156d…
08-02 02:17:57	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xefbb97…
08-02 02:17:42	Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x8ca8b4…
08-02 02:13:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	800	59¢	$472	0x9eb61f…
08-02 01:51:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	824	77¢	$635	0x004193…
08-02 00:50:35	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	BUY	88	25¢	$22	0x73e6d5…
08-02 00:50:27	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xad7887…
08-02 00:12:36	will spider man brand new day score at least 92 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260729175943478	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xf46ef1…
08-01 22:24:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xacc457…
08-01 21:33:41	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	800	56¢	$448	0x30560d…
08-01 20:09:42	will spider man brand new day score at least 92 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260729175943478	No	SELL	46	99¢	$45	0xe1fd74…
08-01 19:55:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	978	64¢	$626	0x1d9522…
08-01 19:53:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x21023f…
08-01 19:35:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	19	64¢	$12	0x514630…
08-01 19:32:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x205b88…
08-01 19:03:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x52393c…
08-01 19:03:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	36	67¢	$24	0x0d08e0…
08-01 16:09:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	60	66¢	$40	0x5e3552…
08-01 15:42:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	600	69¢	$414	0xa509ec…
08-01 15:26:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	886	57¢	$505	0xeb2d11…
08-01 14:49:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	419	67¢	$280	0x8174eb…
08-01 14:43:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x42ec40…
08-01 14:41:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xc1aabb…
08-01 14:41:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	413	48¢	$198	0x77806a…
08-01 14:40:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	83	70¢	$58	0x6dd3eb…
08-01 14:40:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	73	70¢	$51	0xba8167…
08-01 14:38:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x1dc449…
08-01 14:37:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	451	58¢	$262	0x81657a…
08-01 14:36:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$4	0xb9b902…
08-01 14:36:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x5e1959…
08-01 14:35:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xeeaa69…
08-01 14:34:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	514	57¢	$293	0xd0fb73…
08-01 14:33:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x80ce41…
08-01 14:31:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	800	73¢	$584	0x28e1d3…
08-01 07:37:51	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	No	SELL	32	81¢	$26	0xbb68dd…
08-01 05:29:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	589	76¢	$447	0x73f5d6…
08-01 05:08:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xdf1286…
08-01 04:58:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xaf78cc…
08-01 04:42:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xbc83c2…
08-01 04:23:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	97	78¢	$75	0x2f7818…
08-01 03:16:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	14	92¢	$12	0xfb2c54…
08-01 02:37:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	486	92¢	$448	0xfcf33f…
08-01 02:24:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	706	84¢	$593	0x62e024…
08-01 02:16:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	755	81¢	$612	0x96d978…
08-01 01:58:21	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x21c4db…
08-01 01:24:57	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	BUY	200	26¢	$53	0xffeb82…
07-31 18:24:42	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	165	46¢	$76	0xe95d71…
07-31 16:43:32	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	34¢	$14	0x73e439…
07-31 15:48:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	653	90¢	$588	0x529b6c…
07-31 15:29:05	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0xf01f7c…
07-31 15:29:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	23	90¢	$21	0xd18cb0…