Decimal-Covariate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.81K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.14K

Hit rate

75.5%

Resolved

386

Trades

2,866

lifetime

Volume

$292.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$102

Open exposure

$2.85K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 00:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 144 days

Categories

Other

54% 61% -$2,502

Politics

44% 68% +$4,002

Tech

2% 62% +$470

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$165

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+2,746	$1,459	67¢	$1.8K	+$382	10-25 01:39
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	-500	-$621	98¢	$-491	+$130	10-11 06:37
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+660	-$175	65¢	$429	+$604	10-05 07:01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+80	$16	62¢	$49	+$34	10-25 01:41
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+70	$38	45¢	$32	-$7	10-21 18:01
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	+15	$7	48¢	$7	$0	10-18 12:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	27	$8.8K	4,837	4,837	+0	Yes	+$783	07-14 18:12
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	17	$5.9K	9,342	4,405	+4,937	open	—	10-17 14:25
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	23	$5.6K	4,408	4,408	+0	Yes	-$228	08-04 20:51
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	6	$5.5K	3,100	3,100	+0	No	+$607	04-22 05:54
James Comey mugshot released by May 5?	15	$5.0K	2,700	2,700	+0	No	+$375	05-05 05:11
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	25	$4.8K	3,643	3,643	+0	Yes	+$857	09-15 20:59
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	16	$4.2K	2,487	2,487	+0	Yes	+$551	08-02 02:20
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	16	$4.2K	2,378	2,378	+0	Yes	+$415	05-29 21:49
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	64	$3.8K	5,129	5,129	+0	No	+$55	05-18 19:31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	9	$3.7K	4,495	1,204	+3,291	Yes	+$135	05-08 12:55
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	9	$3.6K	1,600	2,700	-1,100	Yes	-$3	01-15 20:04
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	29	$3.6K	2,218	2,218	+0	No	+$210	05-19 09:04
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	13	$3.5K	1,997	1,997	+0	Yes	+$437	08-02 02:27
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	10	$3.5K	4,061	4,061	+0	open	—	10-16 09:02
Will Comey smile in his mugshot?	6	$3.3K	1,671	1,671	+0	No	+$16	05-25 23:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	6	$3.2K	2,465	2,465	+0	No	+$423	07-02 20:26
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	13	$3.1K	2,724	2,682	+41	Yes	-$1,409	05-16 11:22
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?	8	$2.9K	1,653	1,653	+0	Yes	-$243	05-17 04:36
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	9	$2.8K	4,051	1,000	+3,051	Yes	-$1,828	08-01 19:55
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	16	$2.8K	2,044	2,044	+0	No	+$136	05-21 20:44
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	18	$2.8K	3,487	1,246	+2,241	Yes	-$1,203	07-25 03:11
James Comey arrested by April 29?	13	$2.6K	2,700	600	+2,100	Yes	+$581	04-29 18:29
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?	11	$2.6K	1,470	1,466	+4	Yes	+$300	05-12 17:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$2.5K	1,599	1,599	+0	No	+$523	06-01 04:50
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?	14	$2.5K	2,656	636	+2,021	Yes	+$741	06-21 22:37
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	4	$2.5K	1,918	1,918	+0	Yes	+$607	07-25 17:51
kanye west performs in russia by october 31	10	$2.4K	2,670	2,670	+0	open	—	10-06 08:48
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	16	$2.4K	2,381	2,169	+211	Yes	-$228	08-29 13:48
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	13	$2.3K	2,364	0	+2,364	No	+$36	01-07 11:35
will grand theft auto vi launch trailer get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1	19	$2.2K	1,773	1,773	+0	Yes	+$644	10-21 06:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 00:46:26	Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	SELL	22	52¢	$12	0x500815…
10-26 23:37:05	Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	BUY	216	66¢	$141	0xdd89ff…
10-26 12:31:53	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0x910541…
10-26 12:18:02	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0xbf9320…
10-26 12:06:59	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0x2aa4d8…
10-26 02:24:53	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	85¢	$10	0x7af8af…
10-26 00:49:09	Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x94e4f5…
10-26 00:48:42	Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	SELL	22	52¢	$11	0xf86091…
10-25 22:59:21	Will IShowSpeed win Streamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xcbbf95…
10-25 20:50:44	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x165f6a…
10-25 19:14:26	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0x93170c…
10-25 19:13:50	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	85¢	$20	0xf2e277…
10-25 19:13:48	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xd5d27a…
10-25 19:13:48	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	85¢	$28	0xd3da19…
10-25 19:13:48	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x82ef46…
10-25 08:15:47	Will IShowSpeed win Streamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$0	0x59a3bc…
10-25 01:41:06	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	55¢	$44	0x6534e3…
10-25 01:40:36	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x877fdc…
10-25 01:39:26	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	467	54¢	$252	0x927b23…
10-25 01:38:57	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	467	55¢	$257	0x47cb8e…
10-25 01:38:57	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	55¢	$43	0x1478b0…
10-24 20:27:09	Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x2c3f2d…
10-24 17:41:06	Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	BUY	664	51¢	$338	0x92f199…
10-24 13:22:12	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x3a14a2…
10-24 13:21:21	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	85¢	$19	0xd5c61c…
10-24 02:26:44	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	SELL	163	0¢	$0	0x317e8e…
10-24 02:26:20	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	SELL	160	0¢	$0	0x265d86…
10-23 23:47:56	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	SELL	423	97¢	$410	0xb7db35…
10-23 23:28:11	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x9434df…
10-23 23:28:11	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	SELL	201	97¢	$195	0x49433a…
10-23 22:14:41	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	147	97¢	$143	0xc219c3…
10-23 19:49:57	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xee8c28…
10-23 17:11:42	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x6110ed…
10-23 17:01:42	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	SELL	59	95¢	$56	0xfb03e8…
10-23 14:12:06	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	BUY	327	24¢	$80	0x776e5d…
10-23 12:53:24	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	105	96¢	$101	0x89523b…
10-23 09:21:53	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	SELL	428	21¢	$90	0x16860e…
10-23 05:46:45	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	SELL	183	25¢	$46	0x3a628d…
10-23 04:32:29	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x04e000…
10-23 02:36:50	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	64	96¢	$61	0x7960f9…
10-23 01:23:48	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	BUY	700	68¢	$476	0x6a5b95…
10-23 01:23:05	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	BUY	611	17¢	$106	0x927a0b…
10-22 21:35:02	Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	BUY	80	70¢	$56	0x84dcdd…
10-22 19:03:20	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 24?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x312905…
10-22 18:29:48	Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes	SELL	481	79¢	$379	0x40fad3…
10-22 16:40:36	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	60	32¢	$20	0xf2122a…
10-22 12:11:38	Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 100k?	Yes	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x71e488…
10-22 11:57:30	Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	BUY	95	72¢	$68	0x53b46e…
10-22 07:44:57	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x271a3f…
10-22 07:44:29	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	49¢	$15	0xeff54b…
10-22 07:44:29	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0xe41b07…
10-22 07:30:02	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xeaaa70…
10-22 06:21:26	Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	BUY	178	72¢	$128	0x2cc54e…
10-21 22:42:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	182	38¢	$69	0xbef9e9…
10-21 20:33:11	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	SELL	40	24¢	$10	0x1e46f5…
10-21 20:32:36	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x0536d0…
10-21 20:32:14	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xebbcc2…
10-21 20:31:18	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	BUY	251	21¢	$53	0x127780…
10-21 18:01:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	55¢	$38	0x10b404…
10-21 17:54:17	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	56	10¢	$6	0x1cd50d…
10-21 17:45:00	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	No	BUY	35	61¢	$21	0x9bfb37…
10-21 17:43:00	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x3474e0…
10-21 17:42:51	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0xfac781…
10-21 16:27:14	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	BUY	180	18¢	$33	0x550dfe…
10-21 13:32:02	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 22?	No	BUY	575	83¢	$477	0xb9d806…
10-21 08:02:54	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x589e56…
10-21 07:26:17	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0x08ad4a…
10-21 06:36:21	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	948	94¢	$892	0x1cd297…
10-21 04:11:15	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xed7cc7…
10-21 04:11:08	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x847e52…
10-21 04:11:06	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x5d49fb…
10-21 04:11:03	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0xd9087e…
10-21 04:10:59	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xde460d…
10-21 00:22:08	Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?	No	SELL	121	95¢	$115	0x062777…
10-21 00:20:50	Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts?	Yes	SELL	75	62¢	$46	0xbb3912…
10-21 00:14:09	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	69	85¢	$59	0x42a564…
10-20 22:13:35	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	1,292	0¢	$4	0x9bdd59…
10-20 20:31:26	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	177	90¢	$159	0x5dea60…
10-20 20:01:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	201	10¢	$20	0xcdda37…
10-20 19:56:20	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	90	88¢	$79	0x4138a8…
10-20 19:55:56	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	110	88¢	$97	0x16c6af…
10-20 19:54:38	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x18ca82…
10-20 19:27:17	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0x8ce052…
10-20 19:26:45	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	300	78¢	$233	0x3bb383…
10-20 18:45:45	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	400	4¢	$16	0xe8bc9a…
10-20 17:54:21	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xba7ee3…
10-20 17:09:20	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	1,097	0¢	$5	0x802b4f…
10-20 11:17:51	Will "Clayface" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	225	7¢	$16	0xa86979…
10-19 14:22:20	France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	430	3¢	$15	0x80781e…
10-19 14:09:38	Paris curfew by October 31?	No	BUY	450	26¢	$117	0x8e4151…
10-19 13:43:48	Paris curfew by October 19?	No	BUY	400	55¢	$220	0xee6f90…
10-19 11:50:56	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	BUY	563	66¢	$371	0xaae194…
10-19 11:47:15	Paris curfew by October 31?	No	BUY	27	50¢	$13	0x77af39…
10-19 04:55:15	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0x86a053…
10-18 20:26:51	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	71	45¢	$32	0xe33617…
10-18 20:26:51	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	52	45¢	$23	0x7de57c…
10-18 20:26:51	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	277	45¢	$125	0x7367aa…
10-18 20:24:20	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	517	49¢	$253	0xc4ed40…
10-18 17:02:00	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	BUY	377	26¢	$99	0xddac2a…
10-18 12:47:11	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0xcf34bc…