Realized P&L
-$55.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$6.16K
Hit rate
21.4%
Resolved
6,582
Trades
118,161
lifetime
Volume
$1.91M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$32.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 11-01 02:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 136 days
Categories
Other
60% 25% -$34,947
Politics
26% 26% -$13,248
Tech
9% 21% -$4,944
Sports
3% 29% -$1,560
Crypto
2% 27% -$904
Pop-Culture
0% 33% -$67
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 3098 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +3,587 $2,488 80¢ $2.9K +$382 10-31 23:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +2,092 $1,353 100¢ $2.1K +$728 09-30 08:59
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +2,092 $1,558 84¢ $1.7K +$189 10-26 10:45
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +1,427 $1,015 100¢ $1.4K +$405 10-21 03:40
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +1,883 $1,269 74¢ $1.4K +$134 10-31 20:09
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026 No +1,353 $626 100¢ $1.4K +$726 09-29 18:12
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No +1,357 $725 99¢ $1.3K +$614 10-19 04:56
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,168 $1,279 55¢ $1.2K -$97 10-30 09:28
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +1,273 $987 88¢ $1.1K +$140 10-31 09:44
will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287 No +1,494 $755 72¢ $1.1K +$328 10-31 17:53
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +1,019 $877 99¢ $1.0K +$135 10-06 06:35
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +1,147 $368 83¢ $951 +$583 10-27 13:48
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,560 $602 58¢ $913 +$311 10-31 16:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +1,968 $1,043 46¢ $896 -$147 10-29 23:04
will the highest score achieved on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190142923 Yes +1,262 $792 70¢ $883 +$91 10-31 17:06
No one announced as next James Bond? No +985 $725 87¢ $858 +$132 10-28 18:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +1,667 $756 51¢ $850 +$95 10-29 17:44
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 Yes +982 $753 86¢ $845 +$91 10-31 14:35
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +849 $514 99¢ $839 +$325 10-26 00:29
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? No +1,030 $790 80¢ $829 +$39 10-31 19:16
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +827 $603 99¢ $819 +$216 10-11 23:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +1,667 $937 49¢ $817 -$120 10-31 22:39
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +815 $449 100¢ $811 +$361 10-09 06:13
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +809 $650 100¢ $807 +$157 10-23 22:23
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +1,565 $1,137 51¢ $792 -$345 11-01 02:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +799 $501 99¢ $791 +$290 10-23 16:38
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +791 $213 99¢ $787 +$574 10-28 11:49
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Yes +1,565 $586 49¢ $773 +$187 10-31 16:12
will the us announce a diesel export ban by october 31 No +756 $610 100¢ $755 +$144 09-30 16:53
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No +3,587 $1,226 20¢ $717 -$508 10-31 18:05