Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,997
$20,904 in 24h
Trades
29
Unique wallets
27
Liquidity
$98,552
Latest YES mid
36¢
Latest NO mid
64¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-13
last 05-14 19:37
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 1 | $300 | — | +$300 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $32 | — | +$32 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 24 | $713 | $69 | +$644 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $102 | — | +$102 |
| Median | 4 | $84 | $10 | +$74 |
| Below median | 4 | $19 | $5 | +$14 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $158 | — | +$158 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $300 | — | +$300 |
| unranked | 10 | $383 | $54 | +$329 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subtle-Fahrenheit 0x2b91…a535 | Yes | +1,104 | $342 | $342 | 1 | 05-14 07:24 |
| Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | +1,000 | $300 | $300 | 1 | 05-13 23:04 |
| Kooky-Tooth 0xc6a2…d076 | Yes | +563 | $158 | $158 | 1 | 05-13 06:14 |
| Dependent-Maybe 0xea4b…1141 | Yes | +200 | $76 | $76 | 1 | 05-14 19:32 |
| Radiant-Divide 0x7df6…ac3b | Yes | +200 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 05-14 14:39 |
| Jaded-Confidentiality 0x5d5a…4289 | Yes | +109 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 05-13 06:14 |
| Rural-Delight 0x39e5…e22d | Yes | +69 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-13 14:23 |
| Buzzing-Bathtub 0x58b0…807d | No | +49 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 05-14 14:09 |
| Fickle-Halt-Window 0x279c…2b82 | Yes | +40 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 05-13 08:46 |
| Hasty-Covariate 0x6184…4564 | Yes | +32 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-14 09:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x8374…6768 | Yes | +30 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-13 04:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x33d7…9d7d | Yes | +26 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-14 19:37 |
| Respectful-Worshiper 0xdfcc…ae03 | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 05-13 21:55 |
| Coordinated-Vermicelli 0x66be…1148 | No | +16 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-14 16:18 |
| Better-Secret 0xcf90…4b43 | Yes | +16 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-14 11:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x3f24…d232 | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 05:51 |
| Circular-Native 0xae46…79a6 | No | +8 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-14 17:48 |
| Intent-Attitude 0xc97f…b64e | No | +8 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-14 15:18 |
| Corrupt-Tuba 0xb4a4…0973 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 11:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xca44…3389 | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 11:25 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 19:37:11 | (anonymous) 0x33d7…9d7d | Yes | BUY | 26 | 38¢ | $10 | 0xaf24a0… |
| 05-14 19:32:08 | Dependent-Maybe 0xea4b…1141 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 38¢ | $76 | 0xa8f098… |
| 05-14 19:11:45 | Humming-Birdhouse 0x46fb…2b75 | No | SELL | 400 | 63¢ | $252 | 0xd88f2c… |
| 05-14 19:06:55 | Rough-Holiday 0x2f03…ec6a | Yes | SELL | 814 | 36¢ | $289 | 0x585341… |
| 05-14 17:48:46 | Circular-Native 0xae46…79a6 | No | BUY | 8 | 61¢ | $5 | 0x094c57… |
| 05-14 16:18:44 | Coordinated-Vermicelli 0x66be…1148 | No | BUY | 16 | 61¢ | $10 | 0x96e8ab… |
| 05-14 15:18:51 | Intent-Attitude 0xc97f…b64e | No | BUY | 8 | 64¢ | $5 | 0xc6b6b9… |
| 05-14 14:39:18 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 520 | 54¢ | $281 | 0xa117f6… |
| 05-14 14:39:13 | Radiant-Divide 0x7df6…ac3b | Yes | BUY | 200 | 35¢ | $70 | 0x1bf0d0… |
| 05-14 14:09:30 | Buzzing-Bathtub 0x58b0…807d | No | BUY | 49 | 68¢ | $33 | 0xa8d7a4… |
| 05-14 11:39:45 | Better-Secret 0xcf90…4b43 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 31¢ | $5 | 0xa48fff… |
| 05-14 11:25:03 | (anonymous) 0xca44…3389 | No | BUY | 3 | 70¢ | $2 | 0x8c1fad… |
| 05-14 11:14:05 | Corrupt-Tuba 0xb4a4…0973 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 31¢ | $1 | 0xb8448d… |
| 05-14 09:24:27 | Hasty-Covariate 0x6184…4564 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 31¢ | $10 | 0x969a60… |
| 05-14 07:24:14 | Subtle-Fahrenheit 0x2b91…a535 | Yes | BUY | 1,104 | 31¢ | $342 | 0xf5bc21… |
| 05-14 05:51:11 | (anonymous) 0x3f24…d232 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 31¢ | $3 | 0xab3e68… |
| 05-13 23:04:13 | Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 30¢ | $300 | 0xfb4d8d… |
| 05-13 21:55:58 | Respectful-Worshiper 0xdfcc…ae03 | No | BUY | 20 | 72¢ | $14 | 0xd429c4… |
| 05-13 14:23:20 | Rural-Delight 0x39e5…e22d | Yes | BUY | 69 | 29¢ | $20 | 0xc97679… |
| 05-13 13:33:29 | Lined-Trinket 0xc9ba…cf54 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 28¢ | $5 | 0xc56b05… |
| 05-13 08:46:28 | Fickle-Halt-Window 0x279c…2b82 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 29¢ | $9 | 0x8401e9… |
| 05-13 06:16:33 | Dreary-Vice 0x6b88…1fd0 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 28¢ | $3 | 0x27df89… |
| 05-13 06:14:34 | Jaded-Confidentiality 0x5d5a…4289 | Yes | BUY | 109 | 29¢ | $32 | 0x4b5b8e… |
| 05-13 06:14:32 | Kooky-Tooth 0xc6a2…d076 | Yes | BUY | 563 | 28¢ | $158 | 0xc78c81… |
| 05-13 05:41:22 | Bitter-Tempo 0xb58d…b858 | Yes | SELL | 180 | 27¢ | $49 | 0x17f1e5… |
| 05-13 05:34:22 | Fickle-Halt-Window 0x279c…2b82 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 28¢ | $3 | 0x4f5ec5… |
| 05-13 05:33:33 | Dreary-Vice 0x6b88…1fd0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 28¢ | $1 | 0xbcaf2e… |
| 05-13 04:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x8374…6768 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0xe67a9c… |
| 05-13 04:47:37 | Weekly-Convection 0x74e0…af4b | Yes | SELL | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x04e93e… |