Realized P&L
+$162.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$62.3K
Hit rate
77.7%
Resolved
464
Trades
19,615
lifetime
Volume
$10.2M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$520
Open exposure
$405.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-11
last 10-27 06:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 112 days
Categories
Politics
63% 47% +$153,591
Other
32% 40% +$8,625
Sports
3% 23% +$5,657
Tech
2% 40% -$5,117
Crypto
0% 30% +$125
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1373 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +102,335 $80,985 84¢ $85.4K +$4,465 10-16 09:48
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +63,502 $48,032 96¢ $61.0K +$12,929 10-04 06:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +40,101 -$5,341 88¢ $35.5K +$40,830 09-30 04:12
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +35,168 $17,768 66¢ $23.4K +$5,619 10-25 23:00
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +34,812 $15,496 66¢ $23.2K +$7,655 10-16 02:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +102,335 $20,208 16¢ $16.9K -$3,323 10-16 00:15
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +15,999 $11,622 88¢ $14.0K +$2,386 10-25 23:40
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +15,000 $9,390 92¢ $13.7K +$4,335 08-05 10:53
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +16,422 $9,015 84¢ $13.7K +$4,697 09-20 12:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +13,082 $11,181 86¢ $11.3K +$135 10-11 19:01
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +13,909 $6,940 81¢ $11.3K +$4,361 10-15 08:27
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +11,468 $9,104 72¢ $8.3K -$847 10-27 06:36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +8,367 $6,665 94¢ $7.8K +$1,157 10-02 10:52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +8,000 $7,472 96¢ $7.7K +$248 10-24 22:01
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +9,833 $7,678 74¢ $7.3K -$352 09-24 02:16
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +10,104 $7,396 70¢ $7.1K -$273 10-27 05:23
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +14,392 $6,971 46¢ $6.6K -$394 10-10 04:21
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +7,000 $5,696 74¢ $5.2K -$481 09-22 18:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No +5,176 $4,755 99¢ $5.1K +$382 10-01 18:16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +5,686 $3,063 87¢ $4.9K +$1,864 10-24 18:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +40,101 $10,509 12¢ $4.6K -$5,897 10-15 23:15
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +16,833 $4,370 26¢ $4.3K -$77 10-24 18:28
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +4,000 $3,644 94¢ $3.8K +$118 10-27 05:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +3,771 $2,640 99¢ $3.7K +$1,079 08-12 11:01
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +5,237 $3,792 70¢ $3.7K -$100 10-27 04:58
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +5,055 $4,233 72¢ $3.6K -$619 10-22 17:39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +90,201 $21,031 4¢ $3.6K -$17,423 10-27 04:44
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +7,659 $3,616 42¢ $3.2K -$438 09-22 05:00
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +3,227 $2,488 92¢ $3.0K +$465 10-01 17:28
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +4,760 $3,094 62¢ $2.9K -$167 10-24 18:34