Realized P&L
+$6
Unrealized P&L
+$24
Hit rate
82.0%
Resolved
4
Trades
2,226
lifetime
Volume
$17.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$233
14 positions
First seen
2026-02-18
last 07-06 12:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
63% 75% +$6
Other
30%
Crypto
6%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
60 active days in 12wk • peak 88 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +116 $93 68¢ $78 $-15 07-06 12:35
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes -80 $-76 94¢ $-76 +$0 07-05 16:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +42 $23 86¢ $36 +$13 07-06 12:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +50 $12 24¢ $12 $-1 07-06 13:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +15 $10 76¢ $11 +$1 06-22 14:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +18 $9 40¢ $7 $-1 07-06 07:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -25 $-1 24¢ $-6 $-5 06-19 19:02
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No -40 $-10 14¢ $-5 +$4 07-05 16:57
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $-6 48¢ $1 +$7 07-03 20:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -0 $-3 100¢ $-0 +$2 06-26 16:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes -1 $-3 14¢ $-0 +$3 07-02 11:26
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +0 $-13 86¢ $0 +$13 07-05 08:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -0 $0 16¢ $-0 $-0 06-09 10:47
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +0 $-2 52¢ $0 +$2 07-04 04:42