Realized P&L
+$610.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$69.4K
Hit rate
89.7%
Resolved
8
Trades
159,369
lifetime
Volume
$58.8M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$369
Open exposure
$769.7K
28 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
72%
50%
+$610,651
Other
24%
—
—
Tech
4%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
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Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1336 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +290,427 | $240,449 | 74¢ | $213.5K | $-26,986 | 07-16 20:29 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +91,028 | $83,241 | 96¢ | $87.8K | +$4,556 | 07-20 15:44 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +69,592 | $37,947 | 98¢ | $68.5K | +$30,567 | 06-25 17:53 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +100,759 | $75,840 | 55¢ | $54.9K | $-20,926 | 07-17 00:51 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | +66,510 | $55,634 | 78¢ | $51.9K | $-3,756 | 07-17 00:08 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +53,372 | $39,447 | 76¢ | $40.8K | +$1,383 | 07-12 00:02 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +39,847 | $24,917 | 86¢ | $34.5K | +$9,550 | 06-16 00:48 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | +51,541 | $24,312 | 62¢ | $32.2K | +$7,901 | 07-14 21:10 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | +22,891 | $9,865 | 82¢ | $18.8K | +$8,905 | 07-15 01:14 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +18,556 | $16,552 | 90¢ | $16.6K | +$55 | 07-11 23:07 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | +19,455 | $14,358 | 82¢ | $16.0K | +$1,692 | 07-13 20:49 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | +19,346 | $14,614 | 80¢ | $15.6K | +$959 | 07-15 18:23 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | +23,796 | $13,465 | 64¢ | $15.3K | +$1,883 | 07-16 10:49 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | +36,774 | $18,154 | 38¢ | $13.8K | $-4,364 | 07-17 00:11 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | +103,810 | $17,653 | 12¢ | $13.0K | $-4,677 | 07-11 14:23 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +14,139 | $11,452 | 88¢ | $12.4K | +$919 | 06-13 18:40 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +86,861 | $20,636 | 14¢ | $11.7K | $-8,909 | 07-19 05:54 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | +48,431 | $9,006 | 24¢ | $11.4K | +$2,376 | 07-17 05:06 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | +95,281 | $10,354 | 11¢ | $10.0K | $-349 | 07-16 04:54 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | +40,125 | $4,575 | 22¢ | $8.8K | +$4,253 | 07-03 14:35 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | +29,023 | $8,180 | 18¢ | $5.2K | $-2,956 | 07-16 21:34 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +10,491 | $3,151 | 46¢ | $4.8K | +$1,622 | 07-10 21:44 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +13,052 | $6,165 | 36¢ | $4.6K | $-1,531 | 06-17 07:02 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | +242,853 | $74,862 | 2¢ | $3.8K | $-71,098 | 07-16 18:38 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | +28,595 | $2,264 | 6¢ | $1.9K | $-405 | 07-17 11:39 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | +21,886 | $606 | 4¢ | $777 | +$171 | 07-17 22:03 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | +3,432 | $836 | 18¢ | $601 | $-235 | 07-03 22:05 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +611 | $544 | 94¢ | $572 | +$28 | 06-12 20:16 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 2,751 | $1.55M | 2,039,822 | 0 | +2,039,822 | open | — | 02-28 06:12 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 2,089 | $1.28M | 995,785 | 518,344 | +477,442 | open | — | 03-31 02:20 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 1,653 | $1.11M | 1,263,978 | 243,976 | +1,020,002 | open | — | 01-31 18:52 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 813 | $1.08M | 1,099,001 | 64,042 | +1,034,959 | open | — | 02-28 03:35 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 1,704 | $900.2K | 1,045,739 | 228,974 | +816,765 | open | — | 03-31 16:45 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 2,287 | $870.3K | 1,233,497 | 82,534 | +1,150,964 | open | — | 04-01 01:50 |
| us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751 | 690 | $854.5K | 881,754 | 0 | +881,754 | open | — | 02-10 02:41 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 1,283 | $833.7K | 985,035 | 17,852 | +967,183 | open | — | 01-31 19:51 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 790 | $828.6K | 576,488 | 311,337 | +265,150 | open | — | 02-28 22:53 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 1,408 | $784.3K | 967,860 | 541,705 | +426,155 | open | — | 04-08 22:21 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 1,100 | $731.1K | 797,178 | 0 | +797,178 | open | — | 02-21 03:21 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 1,342 | $715.6K | 830,996 | 72,885 | +758,111 | open | — | 04-29 18:51 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 1,625 | $704.9K | 856,194 | 18,870 | +837,324 | open | — | 05-28 04:34 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 881 | $681.0K | 785,448 | 0 | +785,448 | open | — | 06-01 00:37 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 1,322 | $674.2K | 795,706 | 0 | +795,706 | open | — | 02-14 00:29 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 713 | $609.5K | 477,008 | 262,981 | +214,027 | open | — | 03-11 19:19 |
| us strikes iran by february 22 2026 | 514 | $607.3K | 645,557 | 0 | +645,557 | open | — | 02-23 04:38 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 627 | $589.3K | 377,349 | 278,480 | +98,869 | open | — | 01-31 04:37 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1,613 | $579.7K | 996,789 | 11,814 | +984,975 | open | — | 04-08 05:47 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 6 | 461 | $574.7K | 280,266 | 314,755 | -34,488 | open | — | 03-06 19:35 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 1,509 | $569.7K | 1,116,681 | 7,787 | +1,108,894 | open | — | 02-28 00:53 |
| us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294 | 1,307 | $554.3K | 630,995 | 0 | +630,995 | open | — | 02-06 23:51 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 1,378 | $540.9K | 703,041 | 0 | +703,041 | open | — | 02-15 01:59 |
| us strikes iran by february 21 2026 | 500 | $531.5K | 563,511 | 0 | +563,511 | open | — | 02-22 01:31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 699 | $515.3K | 573,816 | 0 | +573,816 | open | — | 05-15 11:05 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 1,729 | $510.8K | 931,039 | 6,369 | +924,670 | open | — | 04-08 11:45 |
| us strikes iran by february 24 2026 | 601 | $500.0K | 538,806 | 0 | +538,806 | open | — | 02-25 02:29 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 1,052 | $492.0K | 765,560 | 10,275 | +755,285 | open | — | 04-07 20:43 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 1,282 | $485.6K | 871,358 | 0 | +871,358 | open | — | 06-01 00:04 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 710 | $475.7K | 369,177 | 199,140 | +170,036 | open | — | 03-29 23:39 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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