Realized P&L
+$610.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$576
Hit rate
89.7%
Resolved
8
Trades
147,065
lifetime
Volume
$55.1M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$374
Open exposure
$1.17M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 00:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
74%
50%
+$610,651
Other
23%
—
—
Tech
3%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 2109 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +220,159 | $212,755 | 97¢ | $213.9K | +$1,130 | 06-10 04:57 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +156,368 | $147,035 | 95¢ | $147.8K | +$812 | 06-09 16:37 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +116,524 | $114,019 | 99¢ | $115.1K | +$1,049 | 06-10 01:34 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +130,088 | $106,896 | 82¢ | $107.3K | +$427 | 06-10 00:29 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | +96,856 | $75,962 | 84¢ | $81.8K | +$5,882 | 06-09 16:03 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +115,346 | $83,485 | 68¢ | $77.9K | $-5,627 | 06-09 02:00 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | +48,316 | $46,363 | 97¢ | $46.7K | +$383 | 06-10 04:54 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +51,207 | $37,817 | 90¢ | $46.3K | +$8,525 | 06-07 23:08 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | +49,511 | $44,399 | 90¢ | $44.3K | $-87 | 06-09 20:28 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | +30,524 | $6,426 | 100¢ | $30.5K | +$24,068 | 06-06 02:11 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +37,045 | $26,648 | 72¢ | $26.5K | $-161 | 06-07 03:26 | |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | +29,039 | $24,944 | 86¢ | $24.8K | $-116 | 06-10 03:31 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | +23,928 | $22,193 | 96¢ | $22.9K | +$694 | 06-03 01:09 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +51,828 | $24,871 | 39¢ | $20.2K | $-4,658 | 06-10 05:01 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | +27,239 | $15,279 | 64¢ | $17.6K | +$2,291 | 06-09 14:57 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +47,741 | $24,652 | 36¢ | $16.9K | $-7,704 | 06-09 20:11 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | +53,261 | $18,508 | 31¢ | $16.5K | $-1,997 | 06-08 08:36 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | No | +24,806 | $9,104 | 61¢ | $15.1K | +$6,027 | 05-29 14:51 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +86,305 | $33,346 | 16¢ | $13.4K | $-19,969 | 06-04 02:59 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | +66,903 | $12,919 | 18¢ | $12.4K | $-542 | 06-10 03:08 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | +11,603 | $11,434 | 99¢ | $11.5K | +$82 | 06-06 16:16 | |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | +39,216 | $11,026 | 24¢ | $9.6K | $-1,418 | 06-10 04:48 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | +83,731 | $18,620 | 10¢ | $8.0K | $-10,666 | 06-08 05:21 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +10,247 | $7,116 | 69¢ | $7.1K | $-46 | 06-10 00:43 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | +21,638 | $5,980 | 32¢ | $7.0K | +$1,052 | 06-04 06:17 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +9,223 | $6,793 | 76¢ | $7.0K | +$216 | 06-08 13:05 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | +51,275 | $6,669 | 12¢ | $6.4K | $-259 | 06-09 00:38 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +9,723 | $5,560 | 62¢ | $6.1K | +$516 | 06-06 03:35 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +5,717 | $5,575 | 98¢ | $5.6K | +$3 | 06-09 19:44 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +13,194 | $5,431 | 38¢ | $4.9K | $-484 | 06-08 03:58 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 2,751 | $1.55M | 2,039,822 | 0 | +2,039,822 | open | — | 02-28 06:12 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 2,089 | $1.28M | 995,785 | 518,344 | +477,442 | open | — | 03-31 02:20 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 1,653 | $1.11M | 1,263,978 | 243,976 | +1,020,002 | open | — | 01-31 18:52 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 813 | $1.08M | 1,099,001 | 64,042 | +1,034,959 | open | — | 02-28 03:35 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 1,704 | $900.2K | 1,045,739 | 228,974 | +816,765 | open | — | 03-31 16:45 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 2,287 | $870.3K | 1,233,497 | 82,534 | +1,150,964 | open | — | 04-01 01:50 |
| us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751 | 690 | $854.5K | 881,754 | 0 | +881,754 | open | — | 02-10 02:41 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 1,283 | $833.7K | 985,035 | 17,852 | +967,183 | open | — | 01-31 19:51 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 790 | $828.6K | 576,488 | 311,337 | +265,150 | open | — | 02-28 22:53 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 1,408 | $784.3K | 967,860 | 541,705 | +426,155 | open | — | 04-08 22:21 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 1,100 | $731.1K | 797,178 | 0 | +797,178 | open | — | 02-21 03:21 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 1,342 | $715.6K | 830,996 | 72,885 | +758,111 | open | — | 04-29 18:51 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 1,625 | $704.9K | 856,194 | 18,870 | +837,324 | open | — | 05-28 04:34 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 881 | $681.0K | 785,448 | 0 | +785,448 | open | — | 06-01 00:37 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 1,322 | $674.2K | 795,706 | 0 | +795,706 | open | — | 02-14 00:29 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 713 | $609.5K | 477,008 | 262,981 | +214,027 | open | — | 03-11 19:19 |
| us strikes iran by february 22 2026 | 514 | $607.3K | 645,557 | 0 | +645,557 | open | — | 02-23 04:38 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 627 | $589.3K | 377,349 | 278,480 | +98,869 | open | — | 01-31 04:37 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1,613 | $579.7K | 996,789 | 11,814 | +984,975 | open | — | 04-08 05:47 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 6 | 461 | $574.7K | 280,266 | 314,755 | -34,488 | open | — | 03-06 19:35 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 1,509 | $569.7K | 1,116,681 | 7,787 | +1,108,894 | open | — | 02-28 00:53 |
| us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294 | 1,307 | $554.3K | 630,995 | 0 | +630,995 | open | — | 02-06 23:51 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 1,378 | $540.9K | 703,041 | 0 | +703,041 | open | — | 02-15 01:59 |
| us strikes iran by february 21 2026 | 500 | $531.5K | 563,511 | 0 | +563,511 | open | — | 02-22 01:31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 699 | $515.3K | 573,816 | 0 | +573,816 | open | — | 05-15 11:05 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 1,729 | $510.8K | 931,039 | 6,369 | +924,670 | open | — | 04-08 11:45 |
| us strikes iran by february 24 2026 | 601 | $500.0K | 538,806 | 0 | +538,806 | open | — | 02-25 02:29 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 1,052 | $492.0K | 765,560 | 10,275 | +755,285 | open | — | 04-07 20:43 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 1,282 | $485.6K | 871,358 | 0 | +871,358 | open | — | 06-01 00:04 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 710 | $475.7K | 369,177 | 199,140 | +170,036 | open | — | 03-29 23:39 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 449 | $3.98M | 66,934 | 06-10 04:59 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 420 | $79.7M | 126,853 | 06-10 04:54 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 406 | $419.2K | 4,280 | 06-09 08:04 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 375 | $1.22M | 95,958 | 06-01 04:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 351 | $480.7K | 45,302 | 03-28 06:14 |
| Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b2…4ceb | 344 | $91.2K | 6,038 | 06-09 18:22 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 343 | $58.0K | 13,920 | 06-09 23:22 |
| Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389 | 342 | $770.1K | 94,521 | 06-10 04:56 |