Realized P&L
-$5.01M
Unrealized P&L
+$475.4K
Hit rate
68.6%
Resolved
964
Trades
214,457
lifetime
Volume
$74.0M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$345
Open exposure
$2.20M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 01:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 195 days
Categories
Politics
66%
48%
-$5,534,730
Other
29%
48%
+$425,476
Tech
4%
67%
+$136,167
Sports
0%
53%
-$40,514
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 2408 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | +258,428 | $181,642 | 96¢ | $246.8K | +$65,156 | 10-27 01:48 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +195,310 | $151,494 | 90¢ | $176.8K | +$25,262 | 10-26 20:21 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +186,876 | $113,632 | 94¢ | $176.6K | +$62,966 | 10-22 07:52 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +168,075 | $74,307 | 88¢ | $148.7K | +$74,439 | 10-15 06:16 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | +169,007 | $59,645 | 63¢ | $106.7K | +$47,083 | 10-07 01:37 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -113,152 | -$126,398 | 94¢ | $-105797 | +$20,601 | 09-12 23:28 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | Yes | +107,090 | $91,863 | 97¢ | $103.9K | +$12,015 | 10-26 22:01 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +107,034 | $90,898 | 92¢ | $99.0K | +$8,109 | 10-26 21:31 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | +150,846 | $73,900 | 58¢ | $88.2K | +$14,345 | 10-22 03:44 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +86,049 | $65,790 | 97¢ | $83.3K | +$17,505 | 10-04 22:05 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +88,651 | $62,818 | 86¢ | $75.8K | +$12,978 | 07-12 00:02 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +64,115 | $40,130 | 98¢ | $62.7K | +$22,607 | 08-12 00:05 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | +134,946 | $81,560 | 46¢ | $61.7K | -$19,890 | 10-03 23:58 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | +56,277 | $39,985 | 92¢ | $51.5K | +$11,509 | 10-21 12:18 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +46,811 | $42,041 | 97¢ | $45.4K | +$3,319 | 10-20 19:52 | |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | Yes | +45,971 | $41,857 | 98¢ | $45.2K | +$3,309 | 10-24 13:38 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | +43,449 | -$13,735 | 100¢ | $43.3K | +$57,076 | 10-15 06:14 | |
| iran coup attempt by december 31 | No | +42,737 | $37,607 | 92¢ | $39.3K | +$1,711 | 09-20 00:13 | |
| bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 | No | +46,253 | $35,032 | 84¢ | $39.1K | +$4,052 | 08-01 18:49 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | +93,263 | $43,170 | 42¢ | $38.7K | -$4,466 | 10-25 06:15 | |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | Yes | +45,368 | $33,787 | 84¢ | $38.3K | +$4,549 | 10-24 04:26 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | +84,066 | $49,745 | 46¢ | $38.2K | -$11,496 | 10-04 15:49 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | +39,802 | $31,336 | 96¢ | $38.0K | +$6,675 | 10-24 19:16 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +39,727 | $36,312 | 92¢ | $36.7K | +$435 | 10-23 09:17 | |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | No | +40,326 | $24,793 | 90¢ | $36.5K | +$11,702 | 10-16 17:35 | |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | +40,125 | $34,807 | 91¢ | $36.3K | +$1,526 | 10-24 23:43 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | +38,862 | $17,317 | 92¢ | $35.7K | +$18,339 | 10-10 21:17 | |
| us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 | No | +40,184 | $30,890 | 88¢ | $35.2K | +$4,271 | 09-18 03:16 | |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | +118,298 | $38,012 | 30¢ | $34.9K | -$3,114 | 10-25 09:29 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | +34,685 | $31,186 | 98¢ | $34.0K | +$2,805 | 10-22 12:00 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 2,751 | $1.55M | 2,039,822 | 0 | +2,039,822 | Yes | -$1,552,519 | 02-28 06:12 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 2,089 | $1.28M | 995,785 | 518,344 | +477,442 | No | +$74,388 | 03-31 02:20 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 1,807 | $1.22M | 737,369 | 609,140 | +128,229 | open | — | 08-12 00:05 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 1,653 | $1.11M | 1,263,978 | 243,976 | +1,020,002 | Yes | +$63,656 | 01-31 18:52 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 813 | $1.08M | 1,099,001 | 64,042 | +1,034,959 | No | +$83,782 | 02-28 03:35 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 1,704 | $900.2K | 1,045,739 | 228,974 | +816,765 | No | +$182,924 | 03-31 16:45 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 2,287 | $870.3K | 1,233,497 | 82,534 | +1,150,964 | No | +$216,365 | 04-01 01:50 |
| us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751 | 690 | $854.5K | 881,754 | 0 | +881,754 | No | +$27,216 | 02-10 02:41 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 1,283 | $833.7K | 985,035 | 17,852 | +967,183 | No | +$163,493 | 01-31 19:51 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 790 | $828.6K | 576,488 | 311,337 | +265,150 | Yes | -$212,204 | 02-28 22:53 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 1,408 | $784.3K | 967,860 | 541,705 | +426,155 | Yes | -$496,120 | 04-08 22:21 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 1,691 | $731.5K | 891,658 | 18,870 | +872,788 | No | +$16,000 | 05-29 06:05 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 1,100 | $731.1K | 797,178 | 0 | +797,178 | No | +$66,099 | 02-21 03:21 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 1,342 | $715.6K | 830,996 | 72,885 | +758,111 | No | +$34,319 | 04-29 18:51 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 921 | $695.0K | 437,565 | 410,547 | +27,018 | open | — | 09-14 12:48 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 896 | $684.5K | 789,420 | 0 | +789,420 | No | +$51,232 | 06-01 00:37 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 1,322 | $674.2K | 795,706 | 0 | +795,706 | No | +$121,483 | 02-14 00:29 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 713 | $609.5K | 477,008 | 262,981 | +214,027 | Yes | +$24,964 | 03-11 19:19 |
| us strikes iran by february 22 2026 | 514 | $607.3K | 645,557 | 0 | +645,557 | No | +$38,306 | 02-23 04:38 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 627 | $589.3K | 377,349 | 278,480 | +98,869 | No | +$920 | 01-31 04:37 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1,613 | $579.7K | 996,789 | 11,814 | +984,975 | Yes | -$158,069 | 04-08 05:47 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 6 | 461 | $574.7K | 280,266 | 314,755 | -34,488 | No | +$18,319 | 03-06 19:35 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 1,509 | $569.7K | 1,116,681 | 7,787 | +1,108,894 | Yes | -$562,033 | 02-28 00:53 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 1,465 | $568.7K | 970,672 | 0 | +970,672 | Yes | -$226,893 | 06-17 07:51 |
| us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294 | 1,307 | $554.3K | 630,995 | 0 | +630,995 | No | +$76,734 | 02-06 23:51 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 816 | $548.9K | 637,316 | 0 | +637,316 | No | +$30,162 | 06-26 05:25 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 716 | $541.3K | 602,491 | 0 | +602,491 | No | +$41,169 | 05-15 11:05 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 1,378 | $540.9K | 703,041 | 0 | +703,041 | No | +$27,892 | 02-15 01:59 |
| us strikes iran by february 21 2026 | 500 | $531.5K | 563,511 | 0 | +563,511 | No | +$31,980 | 02-22 01:31 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 1,729 | $510.8K | 931,039 | 6,369 | +924,670 | Yes | -$132,716 | 04-08 11:45 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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