Realized P&L
+$27.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$9.18K
Hit rate
91.9%
Resolved
129
Trades
1,725
lifetime
Volume
$497.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$288
Open exposure
$91.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-15
last 10-28 19:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 55 days
Categories
Politics
53% 79% +$16,782
Other
40% 62% +$9,413
Tech
7% 83% +$1,035
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
31 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027? No +10,000 $9,200 96¢ $9.6K +$415 07-10 23:35
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No +7,824 $7,086 96¢ $7.5K +$401 07-03 20:31
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026 No +6,800 $6,114 100¢ $6.8K +$669 08-17 22:15
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +6,300 $5,158 92¢ $5.8K +$669 10-03 10:17
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No +5,541 $4,929 97¢ $5.4K +$468 07-10 14:12
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189 Yes +5,903 $3,680 85¢ $5.0K +$1,338 10-21 14:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +5,000 $3,782 99¢ $5.0K +$1,173 07-16 23:12
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +5,559 $3,100 76¢ $4.2K +$1,125 10-21 14:27
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +4,021 $3,628 92¢ $3.7K +$92 07-07 19:19
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +4,806 $4,000 72¢ $3.5K -$539 10-08 22:20
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +3,496 $3,118 94¢ $3.3K +$185 07-22 19:26
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +4,000 $3,159 82¢ $3.3K +$121 09-01 17:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +3,582 $2,251 86¢ $3.1K +$847 07-17 13:48
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +3,173 $2,969 95¢ $3.0K +$46 10-04 12:19
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +3,002 $2,420 94¢ $2.8K +$386 07-07 19:02
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +2,974 $2,279 92¢ $2.8K +$472 08-17 22:19
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -2,288 -$2,207 98¢ $-2252 -$45 06-07 14:30
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +2,000 $1,740 99¢ $2.0K +$235 09-01 20:04
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? No +1,500 $1,282 100¢ $1.5K +$214 09-20 07:25
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No +1,576 $1,414 95¢ $1.5K +$80 07-30 14:03
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,000 $1,300 68¢ $1.4K +$70 10-03 10:50
ukraine election called by december 31 2026 No +1,354 $1,077 96¢ $1.3K +$223 07-17 17:57
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +6,049 $1,348 17¢ $1.0K -$335 07-14 13:53
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +1,059 $923 92¢ $979 +$56 07-07 09:54
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $940 97¢ $972 +$33 08-13 09:39
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +1,000 $930 96¢ $955 +$25 08-09 21:50
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No +1,000 $929 95¢ $950 +$21 07-17 12:35
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +25,747 $277 4¢ $914 +$637 10-24 08:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,000 $880 82¢ $825 -$55 07-05 06:54
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +595 $418 96¢ $568 +$150 07-12 08:06