Realized P&L
+$3.60K
Unrealized P&L
-$77
Hit rate
97.6%
Resolved
4
Trades
483
lifetime
Volume
$147.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$305
Open exposure
$11.7K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-15
last 07-01 21:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Politics
50% 50% +$3,565
Other
49% 100% +$38
Tech
2%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
41 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -2,288 $-2,207 96¢ $-2190 +$17 06-07 14:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +1,500 $1,485 100¢ $1.5K +$10 06-28 19:37
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +1,241 $1,056 92¢ $1.1K +$80 06-22 08:54
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +1,282 $1,058 86¢ $1.1K +$45 06-28 14:14
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +1,043 $933 88¢ $923 $-10 06-28 08:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +1,077 $700 76¢ $813 +$113 06-16 08:19
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? No +689 $644 94¢ $647 +$4 06-29 12:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +2,069 $1,012 26¢ $548 $-464 06-28 11:38
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +500 $438 90¢ $447 +$9 06-28 08:18
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +500 $350 76¢ $377 +$27 06-22 11:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +500 $329 74¢ $367 +$38 06-28 08:41
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +353 $300 90¢ $316 +$16 06-16 08:22
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No +345 $314 88¢ $304 $-10 06-27 21:53
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +904 $300 32¢ $289 $-11 06-07 18:36
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No +255 $200 85¢ $216 +$16 05-31 06:24
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No +200 $190 94¢ $189 $-1 06-21 20:36
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes +249 $185 72¢ $178 $-7 07-01 05:46
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? No +135 $117 90¢ $121 +$3 06-21 20:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes -69 $-101 82¢ $-57 +$44 06-15 22:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -426 $-3 $-1 +$1 07-01 10:10