Expensive-Arrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$60

Hit rate

79.3%

Resolved

996

Trades

8,506

lifetime

Volume

$1.10M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$130

Open exposure

$1.47K

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-11 18:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 57% -$19,023

Other

2% 68% -$1,201

Politics

2% 54% -$1,968

Tech

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 900 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		-1,167	-$1,015	94¢	$-1091	-$76	07-06 21:48
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		-1,426	-$513	26¢	$-378	+$135	10-04 19:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 23:55 UTC	3	$10.4K	5,425	5,418	+7	Down	+$376	03-10 00:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 01:55 UTC	35	$7.1K	4,068	4,068	+0	Up	+$928	09-20 01:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 01:45 UTC	29	$6.0K	4,070	4,068	+2	Up	+$1,634	09-20 01:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 14:45 UTC	29	$5.8K	3,603	3,603	+0	Up	+$1,044	09-25 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 13:20 UTC	25	$5.8K	3,451	3,451	+0	Up	+$1,051	09-28 13:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 14:55 UTC	27	$5.7K	3,853	3,853	+0	Up	+$1,281	09-28 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	24	$5.7K	3,446	3,446	+0	Up	+$1,102	09-29 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 11:10 UTC	23	$5.4K	3,278	3,278	+0	Down	+$1,046	09-28 11:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 14:30 UTC	22	$5.3K	3,343	3,343	+0	Down	+$1,309	09-29 14:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 14:30 UTC	24	$5.3K	3,006	3,006	+0	Up	+$676	09-28 14:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:50 UTC	17	$5.2K	3,678	3,678	+0	Up	+$2,103	10-05 08:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 15:25 UTC	20	$5.1K	3,411	3,411	+0	Up	+$1,653	09-28 15:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	27	$5.1K	3,304	3,304	+0	Down	+$1,451	09-23 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 16:50 UTC	24	$4.9K	2,912	2,912	+0	Up	+$883	09-28 16:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 15:05 UTC	20	$4.9K	3,171	3,171	+0	Up	+$1,356	09-28 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	20	$4.8K	2,909	2,909	+0	Up	+$980	09-22 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	21	$4.6K	2,888	2,888	+0	Down	+$1,087	09-24 08:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 00:55 UTC	19	$4.6K	2,823	2,823	+0	Down	+$994	09-22 00:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	19	$4.5K	2,886	2,886	+0	Up	+$1,207	09-23 21:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 01:30 UTC	23	$4.5K	3,242	3,242	+0	Up	+$270	09-29 01:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 01:10 UTC	24	$4.4K	2,681	2,681	+0	Down	+$879	09-22 01:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 14:35 UTC	17	$4.4K	2,851	2,851	+0	Up	+$1,222	09-25 14:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 17:40 UTC	19	$4.4K	2,737	2,737	+0	Up	+$1,010	09-26 17:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 02:20 UTC	20	$4.4K	2,685	2,685	+0	Down	+$1,007	09-20 02:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 00:30 UTC	21	$4.3K	2,663	2,663	+0	Up	+$937	09-22 00:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 14:50 UTC	16	$4.3K	2,912	2,912	+0	Down	+$1,458	09-28 14:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 16:25 UTC	23	$4.3K	2,796	2,796	+0	Down	+$894	09-27 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	17	$4.3K	2,686	2,686	+0	Down	+$1,059	09-22 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 11:25 UTC	22	$4.3K	2,477	2,477	+0	Down	+$653	09-28 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	20	$4.1K	2,227	2,227	+0	Up	+$325	09-18 14:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 18:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xf1fbfb…
10-11 18:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xc01dfb…
10-11 18:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xea0665…
10-11 18:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xcd4c19…
10-11 18:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xdf32d4…
10-11 18:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x264b75…
10-11 18:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x11ae2f…
10-10 19:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	795	2¢	$19	0xfc7273…
10-10 19:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	383	18¢	$70	0xda18f1…
10-10 19:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	412	17¢	$70	0x4e8add…
10-09 14:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	62	42¢	$26	0x29ad60…
10-09 14:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	135	52¢	$70	0x997e03…
10-09 14:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	135	52¢	$70	0x025245…
10-06 20:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x2d417e…
10-06 20:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xfa4d60…
10-06 20:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xb9a339…
10-06 20:10:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x1e0689…
10-06 20:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x29b04a…
10-06 20:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x499193…
10-06 20:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x6adaa9…
10-06 20:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	543	2¢	$11	0x592d4d…
10-06 20:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	543	18¢	$100	0x0b60b4…
10-06 20:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	718	25¢	$180	0xfd8cba…
10-06 20:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x9188c0…
10-06 20:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x22da05…
10-06 20:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe591b8…
10-06 20:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x7f2d34…
10-06 20:06:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x5438dc…
10-06 20:06:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x5d8b1c…
10-06 20:06:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x211108…
10-06 20:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	148	68¢	$100	0x05dfbb…
10-06 20:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xdffca8…
10-06 20:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x14d6d7…
10-06 20:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	273	37¢	$100	0xdb43dd…
10-06 20:02:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	84	30¢	$25	0xf459c6…
10-06 20:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xa9e131…
10-06 20:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x50a00e…
10-06 20:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	174	57¢	$100	0x916343…
10-06 20:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x7f6b78…
10-06 20:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xc56bbd…
10-06 20:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xbfc674…
10-06 20:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xe29fe8…
10-06 19:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	575	100¢	$574	0xf9de8c…
10-06 19:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xf905b7…
10-06 19:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xd72a48…
10-06 19:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xd393cf…
10-06 19:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x95e9e6…
10-06 19:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x33f58e…
10-06 17:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x7a252f…
10-06 17:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	206	49¢	$100	0x6a38dd…
10-06 17:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x1de70f…
10-06 17:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xfc8f3a…
10-06 17:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x910f36…
10-06 17:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0xf5a461…
10-06 17:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xf75b6b…
10-06 17:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	148	67¢	$100	0xdee005…
10-06 17:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x9bc6b1…
10-06 17:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1,908	99¢	$1,889	0x82031c…
10-06 17:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xefb024…
10-06 17:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0x6ec717…
10-06 17:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x12cfe3…
10-06 17:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x8d5ac2…
10-06 17:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xf30392…
10-06 17:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x431fd2…
10-06 17:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	180	56¢	$100	0x38e533…
10-06 17:40:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	168	60¢	$100	0xd3ab32…
10-06 17:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x11804f…
10-06 17:40:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	160	63¢	$100	0x307cba…
10-06 17:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x2311af…
10-06 17:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	214	47¢	$100	0xca8494…
10-06 17:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	225	44¢	$100	0xcd88c4…
10-06 17:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	297	34¢	$100	0x2ceecb…
10-06 17:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0xe0f499…
10-06 17:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x320ef6…
10-06 16:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	105	67¢	$70	0x1b0c96…
10-06 07:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0xdef6ee…
10-06 07:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x63785d…
10-06 07:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	146	69¢	$100	0xd66c44…
10-06 07:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x8016d6…
10-06 07:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x697ba4…
10-06 07:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	140	72¢	$100	0xf3cdad…
10-06 07:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	674	99¢	$668	0xad8fad…
10-06 07:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xef3393…
10-06 07:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	140	71¢	$100	0xf796ea…
10-06 07:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xec023a…
10-06 07:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x128dc0…
10-06 07:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xbba21d…
10-06 07:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x7aab8f…
10-05 20:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x7b1f52…
10-05 20:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	202	49¢	$100	0x5521f5…
10-05 20:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x7bc9ae…
10-05 20:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	195	51¢	$100	0x466686…
10-05 20:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x11f2fe…
10-05 20:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	205	49¢	$100	0x558702…
10-05 20:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	198	50¢	$100	0x24c40d…
10-05 20:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x68d70f…
10-05 20:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xfde7c1…
10-05 20:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x1661e1…
10-05 20:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x5b7eb6…
10-05 20:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x43b277…