Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.65K

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

53.8%

Resolved

1,253

Trades

14,167

lifetime

Volume

$105.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 10-26 18:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 153 days

Categories

Other

67% 56% -$893

Politics

24% 49% -$507

Crypto

4% 52% -$34

Sports

3% 53% -$128

Tech

1% 45% -$88

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 126 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	09-19 07:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+0	$13	88¢	$0	-$13	10-22 00:08
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+0	$0	81¢	$0	$0	09-11 10:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+0	-$8	98¢	$0	+$8	05-26 14:26
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	09-19 09:55
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+0	$1	8¢	$0	-$1	05-27 17:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	470	$6.9K	6,367	6,367	+0	open	—	06-04 01:41
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	52	$3.9K	2,997	2,997	+0	Dplus KIA	+$208	05-12 12:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	506	$2.9K	4,753	4,753	+0	No	-$79	05-30 11:35
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	33	$2.4K	1,392	1,392	+0	LNG Esports	-$101	05-14 11:28
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	49	$2.2K	1,217	1,215	+2	Anyone's Legend	+$80	05-13 14:53
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	40	$2.2K	1,183	1,183	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$38	05-15 11:49
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	141	$1.6K	1,280	1,088	+192	Usyk	-$64	05-23 23:07
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	14	$1.6K	885	885	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$30	05-12 14:16
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner	17	$1.6K	897	897	+0	Top Esports	-$3	05-12 10:14
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	20	$1.6K	1,095	1,095	+0	EDward Gaming	-$65	05-13 12:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	128	$1.5K	1,047	1,047	+0	No	+$10	06-02 19:22
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	11	$1.5K	772	772	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$2	05-15 12:56
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	22	$1.5K	1,786	1,786	+0	Spirit	+$1	05-11 15:20
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner	36	$1.4K	928	928	+0	Weibo Gaming	+$42	05-10 10:52
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner	27	$1.4K	2,310	2,041	+268	Hanwha Life Esports	-$59	05-15 08:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	267	$1.3K	1,114	1,114	+0	Yes	-$2	06-15 06:40
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	29	$1.2K	769	769	+0	JD Gaming	-$30	05-10 13:36
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	14	$1.1K	1,400	0	+1,400	Team Falcons	+$280	05-11 07:24
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	27	$1.1K	715	715	+0	Weibo Gaming	+$43	05-14 12:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	180	$1.1K	1,586	1,586	+0	Yes	-$1	06-14 16:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	42	$985	579	579	+0	No	+$17	08-30 19:44
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	12	$963	533	533	+0	Anyone's Legend	-$10	05-13 13:41
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	130	$960	1,280	1,224	+56	Yes	-$5	07-07 19:31
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	15	$955	559	550	+9	Anyone's Legend	-$7	05-10 12:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	8	$933	956	956	+0	No	-$21	05-11 18:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	110	$911	812	811	+0	open	—	10-26 18:22
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner	20	$901	551	551	+0	Ninjas in Pyjamas	+$15	05-12 09:40
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	63	$891	484	484	+0	open	—	10-23 11:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	153	$861	1,633	1,485	+148	No	-$5	05-26 15:04
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	14	$858	536	536	+0	No	+$66	07-25 15:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 18:22:59	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x18e56a…
10-26 18:22:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xa73968…
10-26 18:22:45	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x4e4983…
10-26 18:22:26	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xd36f36…
10-26 18:22:20	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x28855f…
10-26 18:22:06	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0xa5888e…
10-26 18:21:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0xe27a3c…
10-26 18:21:42	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x2e3589…
10-26 18:21:26	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	52	0¢	$0	0x44c5e8…
10-26 18:21:21	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x1b6511…
10-26 18:21:03	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x16ba5c…
10-26 18:20:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x238fa6…
10-26 18:20:53	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	1¢	$1	0xef479c…
10-26 18:20:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0x3ff642…
10-26 18:20:17	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xd6cbb1…
10-26 18:20:12	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0xfd6452…
10-26 18:19:48	Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x5817b2…
10-26 18:19:42	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x701248…
10-26 18:19:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x74ec61…
10-26 18:19:21	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x81a9c9…
10-26 18:19:12	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x57777b…
10-26 18:18:48	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xa2fbdc…
10-26 18:18:42	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x87af88…
10-26 18:18:36	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x359e24…
10-26 18:11:53	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0xb3c71a…
10-26 18:11:48	Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x834348…
10-26 18:11:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x6311c7…
10-26 18:11:26	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xbfae29…
10-26 18:11:11	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$1	0xde115b…
10-26 17:21:27	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x0a68cb…
10-26 17:21:20	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$1	0xe6f255…
10-26 17:21:14	Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xa521af…
10-26 17:20:47	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x94a99d…
10-26 17:20:41	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x363cee…
10-26 17:20:36	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xb72af8…
10-26 17:20:14	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	6¢	$2	0x2c555c…
10-26 17:20:08	Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xfd679f…
10-26 17:20:03	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0xf80e77…
10-26 17:19:33	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x7b1897…
10-26 17:19:26	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x7bb329…
10-26 17:19:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xe8fbf7…
10-26 17:19:00	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xc07e9b…
10-26 17:18:51	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xeec875…
10-26 17:18:42	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x0d3f5e…
10-26 17:18:06	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0xcdc83a…
10-26 17:17:51	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xfd75d1…
10-26 17:17:44	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0xccde74…
10-26 17:16:50	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	93	2¢	$2	0x96c97c…
10-26 17:16:47	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0xf1f074…
10-26 17:15:14	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x5aa529…
10-26 17:15:05	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x45d6af…
10-26 17:14:56	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x7c28fa…
10-26 17:14:11	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x197447…
10-26 17:14:02	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0xb65e7d…
10-26 17:13:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x08fce9…
10-26 17:13:26	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	21	15¢	$3	0x743ba3…
10-26 17:13:20	Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x4cc5d8…
10-26 17:12:41	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x0a99f2…
10-26 17:12:35	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	4	92¢	$3	0x2f2878…
10-26 17:12:29	Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x24cb9c…
10-26 17:11:50	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x03621d…
10-26 17:11:44	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	13¢	$4	0xda68ad…
10-26 17:11:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xee79f4…
10-26 17:11:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x2726a3…
10-26 17:11:09	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x806597…
10-26 17:10:33	Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xb3a6a1…
10-26 17:10:27	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0x3cde90…
10-26 17:10:21	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xec177c…
10-26 17:07:20	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x9df57d…
10-26 17:07:14	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x7d91cb…
10-26 17:07:08	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x4cf57a…
10-26 17:06:50	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	SELL	44	13¢	$6	0x674175…
10-26 17:06:41	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x4ce5be…
10-26 17:06:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	42	13¢	$5	0x190651…
10-26 17:06:24	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0xaab99b…
10-26 17:06:18	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x60218d…
10-26 17:06:15	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	15	44¢	$6	0x165e90…
10-26 16:58:27	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0x620982…
10-26 16:58:21	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0xf8b4a7…
10-26 16:58:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x10781d…
10-26 16:57:53	Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0xe95eb3…
10-26 16:57:41	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0x57c631…
10-26 16:57:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8a83a3…
10-26 16:57:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	9	86¢	$7	0xd513e0…
10-26 16:57:00	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x7abad8…
10-26 16:56:50	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0xd4ac9d…
10-26 16:56:17	Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x440193…
10-26 16:56:08	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	47	18¢	$9	0xd6f21c…
10-26 16:55:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	33	26¢	$9	0x15dc22…
10-26 16:55:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xc8f9e5…
10-26 16:55:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x7eb67f…
10-26 16:55:15	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xb7f9cb…
10-26 16:54:48	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	39¢	$10	0xdf79d4…
10-26 16:54:41	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	24¢	$11	0x4dd72c…
10-26 16:54:32	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	21	56¢	$12	0x9b9531…
10-26 16:54:11	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	16	77¢	$13	0x98cc4a…
10-26 16:54:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	18	70¢	$13	0x85cd98…
10-26 16:53:59	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	227	6¢	$14	0x8109c8…
10-26 16:53:32	Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	19	79¢	$15	0x680147…
10-26 16:53:24	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	43	36¢	$16	0xbd5449…