Grumpy-Urn 0x08458f…496b6f
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$51
Unrealized P&L
+$5.81K
Hit rate
31.3%
Resolved
22
Trades
26,321
lifetime
Volume
$7.64M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$290
Open exposure
$90.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 00:05
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
55% 53% +$480
Other
39% 50% $-206
Crypto
2% — —
Tech
2% — —
Sports
1% 0% $-223
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 505 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +37,466 $33,826 90¢ $33.5K $-293 07-18 20:25
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +10,301 $4,641 67¢ $6.9K +$2,261 07-19 23:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +12,491 $8,864 55¢ $6.8K $-2,056 07-20 19:24
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No +6,657 $6,072 94¢ $6.3K +$219 07-14 16:05
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +6,331 $3,994 58¢ $3.7K $-290 07-15 12:36
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -3,686 $-3,402 94¢ $-3446 $-44 07-19 16:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -3,268 $-7,049 99¢ $-3224 +$3,825 07-10 21:35
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -3,623 $-3,246 87¢ $-3152 +$95 07-18 21:20
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes +5,864 $2,789 44¢ $2.6K $-209 07-14 16:37
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -2,910 $-2,553 86¢ $-2488 +$65 07-19 23:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +4,663 $793 46¢ $2.1K +$1,329 07-02 05:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +2,260 $1,679 78¢ $1.8K +$95 07-18 00:25
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +2,465 $1,678 68¢ $1.7K $-14 06-26 03:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No -1,842 $-1,751 82¢ $-1519 +$232 07-18 18:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +7,865 $2,269 17¢ $1.3K $-931 07-08 11:45
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No -1,150 $-1,108 98¢ $-1124 $-17 07-16 20:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,789 $1,159 36¢ $990 $-168 07-19 16:59
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -1,003 $-951 96¢ $-959 $-8 07-16 20:17
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +4,274 $635 22¢ $919 +$284 07-20 17:01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -2,453 $-1,233 33¢ $-810 +$423 06-16 13:33
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No -800 $-849 88¢ $-700 +$149 07-16 18:35
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes +1,429 $654 48¢ $693 +$39 07-15 16:08
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +831 $-53 80¢ $669 +$722 06-17 14:36
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No -555 $-528 95¢ $-529 $-0 07-17 16:03
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -527 $-498 96¢ $-505 $-6 06-07 13:44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes -5,000 $-425 8¢ $-425 $-0 06-21 12:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No -517 $-403 78¢ $-406 $-3 07-17 18:49
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No -438 $-483 90¢ $-392 +$91 07-06 22:18
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +648 $364 60¢ $392 +$28 07-20 06:56
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No -400 $-380 96¢ $-385 $-5 06-05 13:26