Grumpy-Urn 0x08458f…496b6f
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$51
Unrealized P&L
+$4.88K
Hit rate
31.3%
Resolved
22
Trades
24,615
lifetime
Volume
$7.08M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$288
Open exposure
$98.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
57% 53% +$480
Other
38% 50% $-206
Crypto
3% — —
Tech
2% — —
Sports
1% 0% $-223
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 714 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +27,500 $24,650 90¢ $24.9K +$237 06-23 14:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -16,630 $-16,544 100¢ $-16614 $-69 06-29 10:12
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -12,091 $-11,956 100¢ $-12079 $-123 06-25 10:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +14,178 $7,005 59¢ $8.4K +$1,359 06-29 21:30
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No +4,604 $4,256 94¢ $4.4K +$94 06-29 17:57
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -3,488 $-3,435 100¢ $-3484 $-49 06-02 10:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +8,865 $2,519 27¢ $2.4K $-125 06-25 16:43
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No -2,390 $-2,362 100¢ $-2387 $-25 06-13 23:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -3,268 $-2,473 64¢ $-2075 +$398 06-29 04:14
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +2,000 $1,972 100¢ $2.0K +$20 06-20 10:44
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +1,858 $170 100¢ $1.9K +$1,680 06-18 14:02
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +2,465 $1,678 66¢ $1.6K $-38 06-26 03:02
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +1,501 $1,321 100¢ $1.5K +$176 06-11 06:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,940 $1,311 68¢ $1.3K +$17 06-15 17:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,000 $1,230 42¢ $1.3K +$45 06-26 04:17
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +1,217 $1,089 100¢ $1.2K +$126 06-14 21:18
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1,314 $967 84¢ $1.1K +$130 06-18 17:55
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -2,453 $-1,233 41¢ $-1006 +$227 06-16 13:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No -1,000 $-970 100¢ $-998 $-28 06-12 17:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +1,086 $741 90¢ $972 +$231 06-11 13:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +2,500 $1,440 36¢ $913 $-528 06-29 08:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1,224 $291 72¢ $875 +$585 06-27 08:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +1,045 $780 84¢ $873 +$92 06-30 07:03
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No -740 $-733 100¢ $-740 $-7 06-06 15:20
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes -5,000 $-425 15¢ $-725 $-300 06-21 12:22
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No -719 $-687 98¢ $-706 $-19 06-29 17:42
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -711 $-619 94¢ $-665 $-46 06-29 12:17
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +831 $-53 76¢ $631 +$685 06-17 14:36
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No +750 $562 84¢ $626 +$64 06-05 15:35
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No +787 $540 78¢ $610 +$71 06-06 19:55