Grumpy-Urn 0x08458f…496b6f
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$183.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$25.7K
Hit rate
81.0%
Resolved
1,559
Trades
39,787
lifetime
Volume
$11.9M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$300
Open exposure
$218.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 14:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 254 days
Categories
Politics
55% 67% +$122,712
Other
39% 62% +$54,501
Tech
2% 67% +$4,166
Crypto
2% 62% -$406
Sports
1% 68% +$2,690
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$70
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 222 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +42,731 $23,063 56¢ $23.9K +$866 10-28 15:32
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +15,922 $14,600 92¢ $14.7K +$128 10-12 20:52
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +14,350 $12,307 99¢ $14.2K +$1,900 10-28 02:28
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +17,177 $12,809 72¢ $12.5K -$355 10-26 13:22
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +16,630 $10,800 66¢ $11.1K +$259 10-24 21:56
US recession by end of 2026? No +11,251 $9,126 93¢ $10.5K +$1,337 10-25 23:15
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +10,326 $8,986 92¢ $9.4K +$462 10-03 00:59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -11,725 -$11,535 80¢ $-9380 +$2,155 10-22 16:56
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +13,341 $7,862 68¢ $9.0K +$1,143 10-23 20:43
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +12,202 $7,605 66¢ $8.1K +$509 10-20 21:51
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No +9,490 $6,757 80¢ $7.5K +$788 10-27 17:25
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -7,749 -$6,958 97¢ $-7505 -$547 07-19 16:30
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 Yes +7,879 $5,636 95¢ $7.5K +$1,849 10-23 23:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +8,321 -$3,345 88¢ $7.4K +$10,709 10-22 00:08
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +6,479 $5,945 100¢ $6.4K +$501 10-28 13:39
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +9,694 $4,670 66¢ $6.4K +$1,728 10-16 07:08
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +9,088 $5,459 66¢ $6.0K +$543 10-20 18:04
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +5,589 $4,461 92¢ $5.1K +$653 07-17 20:30
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes -5,082 -$4,647 96¢ $-4894 -$247 08-11 08:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +5,732 $3,633 74¢ $4.2K +$580 10-21 22:19
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,052 $4,050 74¢ $3.7K -$337 10-26 19:51
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +3,750 $3,544 97¢ $3.6K +$103 10-28 02:07
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -3,788 -$3,775 94¢ $-3579 +$196 07-18 21:20
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +9,314 $4,716 38¢ $3.6K -$1,144 10-19 13:58
No one announced as next James Bond? No +4,495 $3,376 78¢ $3.5K +$153 09-30 12:45
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +3,555 $2,361 98¢ $3.5K +$1,123 10-28 01:31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +6,116 $3,078 50¢ $3.0K -$50 10-22 08:31
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +3,563 $2,041 80¢ $2.8K +$791 10-27 16:58
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +3,508 $2,421 80¢ $2.8K +$385 09-26 10:55
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +7,905 $3,209 34¢ $2.7K -$482 10-25 04:49