Grumpy-Urn 0x08458f…496b6f
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$51
Unrealized P&L
-$1.55K
Hit rate
31.3%
Resolved
22
Trades
21,805
lifetime
Volume
$6.10M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$280
Open exposure
$88.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 19:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
55% 53% +$480
Other
39% 50% $-206
Crypto
3% — —
Tech
2% — —
Sports
1% 0% $-223
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 931 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -18,009 $-17,763 99¢ $-17784 $-21 06-08 20:49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T No +15,648 $14,482 96¢ $14.9K +$462 06-09 19:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +51,934 $9,216 16¢ $8.6K $-647 06-07 14:27
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -7,741 $-7,617 99¢ $-7679 $-62 06-08 20:49
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +20,621 $7,159 20¢ $4.1K $-3,035 06-08 14:58
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes +3,627 $3,532 97¢ $3.5K $-2 06-07 22:58
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -3,488 $-3,435 99¢ $-3461 $-26 06-02 10:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -4,268 $-2,985 70¢ $-3009 $-24 06-09 13:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No -2,890 $-2,850 97¢ $-2807 +$43 06-09 14:22
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +3,000 $1,290 76¢ $2.3K +$990 06-08 10:37
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes +3,200 $1,976 60¢ $1.9K $-40 06-09 14:42
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +1,838 $1,746 96¢ $1.8K +$11 06-08 09:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes +4,500 $982 38¢ $1.7K +$750 06-09 13:06
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes +1,722 $1,549 91¢ $1.6K +$13 06-09 06:20
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes +1,512 $1,481 99¢ $1.5K +$21 06-09 11:23
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No +1,400 $1,036 88¢ $1.2K +$199 06-08 10:16
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,092 $-1,099 100¢ $-1091 +$8 06-09 13:20
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +1,049 $1,008 95¢ $993 $-15 06-07 18:02
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes +1,005 $989 99¢ $992 +$3 06-09 17:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,400 $932 68¢ $959 +$27 06-05 19:13
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1,298 $953 72¢ $928 $-25 06-05 16:54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +1,000 $680 74¢ $740 +$60 06-08 23:41
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No -740 $-733 99¢ $-736 $-3 06-06 15:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +2,401 $712 28¢ $672 $-40 06-06 22:47
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes +1,725 $955 34¢ $595 $-360 06-08 20:49
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No +787 $540 75¢ $590 +$51 06-06 19:55
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No +750 $562 78¢ $589 +$26 06-05 15:35
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No -579 $-550 96¢ $-553 $-3 06-01 04:32
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -527 $-498 94¢ $-498 $-0 06-07 13:44
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +500 $390 97¢ $484 +$94 06-01 10:50