Realized P&L
+$259
Unrealized P&L
+$1.21K
Hit rate
90.1%
Resolved
125
Trades
1,483
lifetime
Volume
$228.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$154
Open exposure
$15.1K
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 07:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 60 days
Categories
Politics
59% 79% -$2,370
Other
40% 85% +$2,305
Tech
1% 100% +$324
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? No +4,188 $3,017 92¢ $3.9K +$837 09-28 02:46
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1,800 $1,625 94¢ $1.7K +$59 10-23 14:34
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes -1,300 -$1,222 92¢ $-1200 +$22 08-26 19:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +1,245 $969 84¢ $1.0K +$71 10-11 14:17
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? No +1,000 $131 100¢ $996 +$865 10-27 02:48
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +2,000 $805 48¢ $950 +$145 10-26 22:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +800 $722 99¢ $789 +$67 10-11 14:17
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +700 $641 92¢ $648 +$6 10-12 20:52
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +700 $591 85¢ $595 +$4 10-26 18:16
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +700 $543 84¢ $591 +$48 10-25 00:08
trump meets with putin by december 31 No +3,086 $1,970 18¢ $556 -$1,415 08-22 19:14
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -400 -$380 94¢ $-378 +$2 10-02 11:18
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +400 $286 86¢ $342 +$56 10-17 18:19
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -222 -$209 97¢ $-216 -$7 07-09 20:05
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $134 94¢ $187 +$53 10-16 15:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +200 $168 82¢ $163 -$5 08-16 10:42
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +500 $130 30¢ $150 +$20 10-25 16:02
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +200 $139 72¢ $145 +$6 10-20 12:55
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 No +150 $119 86¢ $130 +$11 08-16 07:11
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +100 $88 92¢ $92 +$4 08-10 11:26
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +100 -$55 90¢ $90 +$145 08-10 11:53
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -95 -$88 94¢ $-89 $0 08-13 15:10
foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775 No +100 $47 88¢ $88 +$42 08-05 16:50
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +100 $65 66¢ $66 +$0 10-06 16:53
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +50 $34 70¢ $35 +$2 10-21 22:29
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +15 $7 57¢ $8 +$1 09-23 11:16
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -0 -$175 98¢ $-0 +$175 09-21 14:47