Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$231,605
$25,355 in 24h
Trades
3,221
Unique wallets
405
Liquidity
$21,783
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2025-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-30 16:55
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.0¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $60.1K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $150.9K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 26 | $50 | $116.8K | $116.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 42 | $82 | $22.5K | $22.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 76 | $177 | $4.7K | $4.5K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 261 | $1.2K | $5.4K | $4.2K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 7 | $10 | $60.1K | $60.1K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 15 | $229 | $14.4K | $14.2K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 17 | $6 | $2.5K | $2.5K |
| Median | 89 | $11 | $2.4K | $2.4K |
| Below median | 44 | $68 | $779 | $711 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $123 | $178 | $55 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 18 | $43 | $5.7K | $5.7K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 12 | $3 | $21.4K | $21.4K |
| unranked | 195 | $1.0K | $41.8K | $40.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flashy-Label 0xed10…d2e5 | No | +42,291 | $41,988 | $41,988 | 203 | 06-27 07:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x53b6…0721 | Yes | +38,547 | $595 | $595 | 3 | 06-04 16:27 |
| Unfortunate-Pray 0xc9dc…9026 | No | +17,696 | $17,501 | $17,501 | 50 | 06-22 12:26 |
| Dependent-Sausage 0x904f…50c6 | Yes | +15,288 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-27 07:33 |
| Conventional-Sesame 0x184e…cf96 | No | +12,400 | $12,221 | $12,221 | 4 | 06-04 16:27 |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist 0x3eae…e2ed | No | +11,761 | $11,595 | $11,595 | 7 | 06-03 04:53 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk 0x9507…7b04 | No | +8,370 | $8,373 | $16,261 | 6 | 06-27 07:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x6ba1…0d6e | Yes | +7,910 | $106 | $106 | 42 | 06-15 18:28 |
| Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | No | +6,798 | $6,662 | $15,374 | 160 | 06-24 20:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x2620…78f5 | Yes | +6,572 | $100 | $100 | 2 | 06-05 20:33 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +5,926 | $5,814 | $5,814 | 10 | 05-29 01:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x6bd8…f260 | Yes | +5,918 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 05-30 10:20 |
| Sneaky-Grandparent 0x5c53…8c30 | Yes | +5,000 | $5 | $5 | 14 | 06-27 04:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xf77a…672c | Yes | +4,295 | $58 | $58 | 2 | 06-08 11:19 |
| Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | +3,000 | $2,976 | $2,976 | 1 | 06-08 01:45 |
| Shrill-Racer 0x798f…d7d3 | Yes | +2,678 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-29 01:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc7f…e38f | Yes | +2,400 | $36 | $36 | 6 | 06-05 02:21 |
| Determined-Emanate 0xa53e…93e6 | Yes | +2,338 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 06-08 11:08 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +2,041 | $2,032 | $2,032 | 24 | 06-27 07:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +2,037 | $2,032 | $2,032 | 32 | 06-26 13:48 |
| Major-Click 0xdc4b…dbca | No | +1,900 | $1,889 | $7,200 | 68 | 06-28 21:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xefb1…01c4 | Yes | +1,759 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-10 01:46 |
| Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | +1,360 | $-1 | $36 | 165 | 06-30 12:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x4107…f85f | Yes | +1,333 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-02 18:11 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +1,128 | $1,123 | $1,123 | 13 | 06-27 07:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x61e9…8918 | No | +1,008 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 1 | 06-05 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x5848…4258 | Yes | +1,000 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 12:02 |
| Questionable-Bafflement 0x55b7…3775 | No | +1,000 | $994 | $994 | 10 | 06-19 11:24 |
| Burdensome-Kielbasa 0xf2ab…97a4 | No | +1,000 | $997 | $997 | 11 | 06-27 07:33 |
| Limited-Spec 0x41c7…0df5 | No | +966 | $958 | $958 | 11 | 06-27 07:33 |
| Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | +680 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-02 23:45 |
| Mortified-Hotdog 0x1978…fd9f | Yes | +627 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-05 19:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x36a1…9d2a | No | +600 | $591 | $591 | 1 | 06-05 02:21 |
| Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae | Yes | +570 | $5 | $94 | 83 | 06-22 12:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xac88…33f6 | Yes | +499 | $-4 | $38 | 67 | 06-27 09:44 |
| Forsaken-Outhouse 0x47ab…95df | No | +474 | $465 | $465 | 1 | 06-04 16:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xef38…adc9 | No | +468 | $463 | $527 | 5 | 06-15 19:42 |
| Secondary-Procedure 0x6dae…e45a | Yes | +458 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-05 19:16 |
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +409 | $408 | $408 | 2 | 06-30 16:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x021d…bd9f | No | +400 | $394 | $394 | 1 | 06-05 02:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x2aba…7f96 | Yes | +379 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-29 09:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x3f76…04e9 | No | +370 | $364 | $364 | 1 | 06-05 02:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x6aaf…7a58 | No | +360 | $355 | $355 | 1 | 06-05 02:19 |
| Flowery-Suspect 0xb64e…4baa | No | +340 | $335 | $335 | 1 | 06-05 02:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x293a…444d | Yes | +333 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 18:55 |
| Those-Engineering 0xe27f…c734 | No | +330 | $325 | $325 | 1 | 06-05 02:20 |
| Soupy-Wallaby 0x93cc…6ffc | No | +324 | $323 | $323 | 2 | 06-30 12:02 |
| Mundane-Screwdriver 0xbecd…f54e | No | +312 | $309 | $309 | 8 | 06-08 11:08 |
| Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | +250 | $249 | $249 | 14 | 06-22 12:26 |
| Impressive-Scarecrow 0xba62…58e9 | No | +239 | $236 | $236 | 69 | 06-22 22:50 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +216 | $210 | $574 | 5 | 06-05 11:00 |
| Classic-Parallelogram 0xce4d…d0e2 | Yes | +200 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-11 16:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xded9…0c22 | Yes | +200 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-08 13:21 |
| Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | +189 | $-15 | $172 | 16 | 06-27 07:33 |
| Faithful-Razor 0x6731…4e4e | Yes | +188 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-29 20:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x88ea…0512 | Yes | +180 | $1 | $1 | 11 | 06-16 20:13 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 16:55:50 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | SELL | 342 | 100¢ | $341 | 0xcb3848… |
| 06-30 16:55:50 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 342 | 100¢ | $341 | 0xcb3848… |
| 06-30 12:42:53 | Joint-Snob 0xebe6…20c4 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xf4ec47… |
| 06-30 12:42:53 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf4ec47… |
| 06-30 12:02:10 | (anonymous) 0x5848…4258 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 0¢ | $2 | 0xf3ba12… |
| 06-30 12:02:10 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | SELL | 222 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf3ba12… |
| 06-30 12:02:10 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 300 | 100¢ | $299 | 0xf3ba12… |
| 06-30 12:02:10 | Soupy-Wallaby 0x93cc…6ffc | No | BUY | 162 | 100¢ | $162 | 0xf3ba12… |
| 06-30 11:55:41 | Innocent-Engine 0x83e6…2488 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x730d86… |
| 06-30 11:55:41 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x730d86… |
| 06-30 10:13:41 | Stylish-Instrument 0x9351…9e4d | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x9e588a… |
| 06-30 10:13:41 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x9e588a… |
| 06-30 07:11:49 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd98181… |
| 06-30 07:11:49 | (anonymous) 0x7449…c05e | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xd98181… |
| 06-29 23:39:17 | Threadbare-Windage 0x50a5…1af8 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xa63ebb… |
| 06-29 23:39:17 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa63ebb… |
| 06-29 22:28:58 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x348244… |
| 06-29 22:28:58 | (anonymous) 0xf328…ef86 | No | SELL | 52 | 100¢ | $52 | 0x348244… |
| 06-29 22:28:58 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x348244… |
| 06-29 22:22:40 | (anonymous) 0x3234…e40d | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x71271c… |
| 06-29 22:22:40 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x71271c… |
| 06-29 14:16:35 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x444015… |
| 06-29 14:16:35 | (anonymous) 0xa6f5…715a | No | SELL | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x444015… |
| 06-29 14:02:55 | Virtual-Execution 0x3d14…ee01 | No | SELL | 100 | 100¢ | $100 | 0x35a486… |
| 06-29 14:02:55 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x35a486… |
| 06-29 12:21:13 | Warlike-Shoemaker 0x4eb6…5e8a | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x0c8779… |
| 06-29 12:21:13 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0c8779… |
| 06-29 11:21:26 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x9b8a38… |
| 06-29 11:21:26 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x9b8a38… |
| 06-29 11:16:22 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa9fe26… |
| 06-29 11:16:22 | (anonymous) 0x9049…a3e7 | No | SELL | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xa9fe26… |
| 06-29 09:42:44 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x8ff9de… |
| 06-29 09:42:44 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x8ff9de… |
| 06-29 08:50:53 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa736e5… |
| 06-29 08:50:53 | (anonymous) 0x6a07…2952 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xa736e5… |
| 06-29 08:25:17 | Bare-Stag 0x2fa8…4359 | No | SELL | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x4101f2… |
| 06-29 08:25:17 | Elliptical-Perspective 0x7f1d…45dc | No | SELL | 100 | 100¢ | $100 | 0x4101f2… |
| 06-29 08:25:17 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 704 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x4101f2… |
| 06-29 08:25:17 | (anonymous) 0x9b64…015b | No | SELL | 290 | 100¢ | $290 | 0x4101f2… |
| 06-29 08:25:17 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | SELL | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0x4101f2… |
| 06-29 08:25:17 | (anonymous) 0x3cbd…9742 | Yes | SELL | 1,217 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x4101f2… |
| 06-29 08:19:01 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xa762f0… |
| 06-29 08:19:01 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xa762f0… |
| 06-29 08:18:41 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xf4f998… |
| 06-29 08:18:41 | (anonymous) 0xc131…cce0 | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xf4f998… |
| 06-29 08:15:02 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xd1517e… |
| 06-29 08:15:02 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xd1517e… |
| 06-29 07:44:02 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfb294e… |
| 06-29 07:44:02 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xfb294e… |
| 06-29 07:03:20 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xcc35ae… |
| 06-29 07:03:20 | (anonymous) 0x72e0…0b96 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xcc35ae… |
| 06-29 07:00:32 | (anonymous) 0x72e0…0b96 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xb28643… |
| 06-29 07:00:32 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xb28643… |
| 06-29 06:28:02 | (anonymous) 0xa996…34b5 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x00ae31… |
| 06-29 06:28:02 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x00ae31… |
| 06-29 06:25:50 | (anonymous) 0xa996…34b5 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x479dd2… |
| 06-29 06:25:50 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x479dd2… |
| 06-29 06:23:49 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x45a1e5… |
| 06-29 06:23:49 | (anonymous) 0x6a07…2952 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x45a1e5… |
| 06-29 06:08:16 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc85219… |
| 06-29 06:08:16 | (anonymous) 0x84a9…1801 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc85219… |
| 06-29 05:51:16 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6238a7… |
| 06-29 05:51:16 | (anonymous) 0xa996…34b5 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x6238a7… |
| 06-29 05:48:37 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x94b6bf… |
| 06-29 05:48:37 | (anonymous) 0x6a07…2952 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x94b6bf… |
| 06-29 04:43:07 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 25 | 100¢ | $25 | 0x4fa66e… |
| 06-29 04:43:07 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 25 | 100¢ | $25 | 0x4fa66e… |
| 06-29 04:42:38 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | BUY | 25 | 100¢ | $25 | 0x666391… |
| 06-29 04:42:38 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x666391… |
| 06-29 04:15:38 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x92411c… |
| 06-29 04:15:38 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x92411c… |
| 06-29 03:21:41 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x1a7209… |
| 06-29 03:21:41 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x1a7209… |
| 06-29 03:19:04 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x8ff451… |
| 06-29 03:19:04 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x8ff451… |
| 06-29 03:17:26 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xa1fe7b… |
| 06-29 03:17:26 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa1fe7b… |
| 06-29 03:14:35 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x809aa0… |
| 06-29 03:14:35 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x809aa0… |
| 06-29 02:12:38 | (anonymous) 0x72e0…0b96 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x4d0920… |
| 06-29 02:12:38 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4d0920… |
| 06-29 02:11:05 | (anonymous) 0x97c6…6587 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x65dc86… |
| 06-29 02:11:05 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x65dc86… |
| 06-29 02:07:41 | (anonymous) 0xfb97…606b | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xedb8a7… |
| 06-29 02:07:41 | (anonymous) 0x72e0…0b96 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xedb8a7… |
| 06-29 02:05:34 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdd88e… |
| 06-29 02:05:34 | (anonymous) 0x72e0…0b96 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xfdd88e… |
| 06-28 21:26:07 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xc9abcb… |
| 06-28 21:26:07 | Major-Click 0xdc4b…dbca | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xc9abcb… |
| 06-28 21:10:37 | Major-Click 0xdc4b…dbca | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x20e8fc… |
| 06-28 21:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x97c6…6587 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x20e8fc… |
| 06-28 20:11:02 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x61fcb9… |
| 06-28 20:11:02 | (anonymous) 0x97c6…6587 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x61fcb9… |
| 06-28 19:28:43 | Major-Click 0xdc4b…dbca | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x733dd9… |
| 06-28 19:28:43 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x733dd9… |
| 06-28 19:27:05 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x803059… |
| 06-28 19:27:05 | Major-Click 0xdc4b…dbca | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x803059… |
| 06-28 18:46:28 | (anonymous) 0x6ae7…0235 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x3ffbc4… |
| 06-28 18:46:28 | Miserly-Editing 0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x3ffbc4… |
| 06-28 18:45:49 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x90ef06… |