Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,724
$72,011 in 24h
Trades
55
Unique wallets
50
Liquidity
$57,710
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2025-12-31
First seen
2026-05-04
last 05-05 22:40
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🦐 Shrimp | 50 | $56 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| unranked | 50 | $56 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free-Meridian 0xd15e…bb9e | Yes | +336 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-04 23:29 |
| Puny-Pomelo 0xd347…bade | Yes | +309 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 05-05 05:40 |
| Failing-Hour 0x0d1c…1233 | Yes | +304 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-05 21:54 |
| Common-Kettle 0x9729…0788 | Yes | +298 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-04 23:54 |
| Aching-Quarter 0xecc7…b16d | Yes | +294 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 08:06 |
| Fair-Queen 0x8098…5eb2 | Yes | +246 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-05 01:09 |
| Sharp-Triangle 0xae77…829c | Yes | +187 | $2 | $6 | 2 | 05-05 10:45 |
| Large-Route 0x8033…2685 | Yes | +180 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-05 06:45 |
| Squeaky-Occurrence-Pick 0x899a…2aed | No | +138 | $136 | $136 | 1 | 05-05 03:24 |
| Pastel-Makeup 0xb821…a2ec | No | +127 | $125 | $125 | 1 | 05-05 03:24 |
| Biodegradable-Siege 0x61ab…78b4 | Yes | +119 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-04 21:09 |
| Worst-Corn 0xa25b…9de2 | Yes | +117 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-04 22:04 |
| Usable-Tournament 0x5cbb…7b75 | Yes | +115 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-05 01:09 |
| Common-Kettle 0x9729…0788 | No | +105 | $103 | $103 | 1 | 05-05 04:25 |
| Luminous-Recommendation 0x06e8…1b48 | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 1 | 05-05 01:34 |
| Unfortunate-Train 0x3c41…c2e1 | Yes | +98 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-04 21:09 |
| Lively-Armpit 0xd50f…a14e | No | +96 | $94 | $94 | 1 | 05-05 01:34 |
| Failing-Manor 0xc92a…2f2e | Yes | +94 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-05 03:35 |
| Remarkable-Fitness 0xb936…b602 | Yes | +91 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-05 02:50 |
| Incredible-Icing 0xe132…5e44 | No | +91 | $89 | $89 | 1 | 05-05 00:29 |
| Truthful-Dinner 0x5902…b417 | Yes | +86 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-04 21:09 |
| Eager-Past 0xabf6…f743 | No | +86 | $84 | $84 | 1 | 05-05 03:24 |
| Bare-Toothpick 0xf227…6a47 | No | +84 | $82 | $82 | 1 | 05-05 04:25 |
| Bland-Turnstile 0xb93c…4c26 | No | +81 | $79 | $79 | 1 | 05-05 00:29 |
| Sophisticated-Exterior 0xc694…509d | No | +79 | $78 | $78 | 1 | 05-05 01:34 |
| Lone-Beginning 0x6821…63a4 | No | +71 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 05-05 04:25 |
| Sardonic-Howitzer 0x0d9c…c208 | No | +69 | $68 | $68 | 1 | 05-05 04:25 |
| Thorny-Perpendicular 0x9ada…6ccf | No | +68 | $67 | $67 | 1 | 05-05 00:29 |
| Vast-Legend 0xc7e8…43c6 | No | +56 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 05-05 04:25 |
| Remote-Brushfire 0xa2e0…964a | Yes | +50 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-04 21:09 |
| Cluttered-Incense 0x4add…8cdf | Yes | +50 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 00:44 |
| Shiny-Collaboration 0x2b0f…022e | No | +37 | $36 | $36 | 1 | 05-05 03:24 |
| Impish-Application 0x2605…83e5 | No | +36 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 05-04 21:09 |
| Lopsided-Seizure 0x1b57…e7e8 | No | +27 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 05-04 21:09 |
| Old-Senator 0x563a…ea96 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 15:59 |
| Smug-Washcloth 0xdcb2…4ea7 | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-05 11:21 |
| Damp-Semester 0xc886…aefd | Yes | +1 | $-1 | $9 | 2 | 05-05 22:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 22:40:14 | Damp-Semester 0xc886…aefd | Yes | BUY | 276 | 1¢ | $4 | 0x1b6b08… |
| 05-05 21:54:18 | Failing-Hour 0x0d1c…1233 | Yes | BUY | 304 | 1¢ | $4 | 0x253bf3… |
| 05-05 20:13:36 | Skeletal-Mansion 0x7c46…a467 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x3462d3… |
| 05-05 15:59:54 | Old-Senator 0x563a…ea96 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xfc2bc8… |
| 05-05 11:21:34 | Smug-Washcloth 0xdcb2…4ea7 | No | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0x6428f8… |
| 05-05 10:45:16 | Sharp-Triangle 0xae77…829c | Yes | SELL | 187 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x6e803b… |
| 05-05 10:45:16 | Faint-Towel 0x6996…eeb8 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xe1c27d… |
| 05-05 10:45:16 | Scary-Ground 0x4160…03bc | No | SELL | 93 | 99¢ | $92 | 0x632184… |
| 05-05 10:45:16 | Failing-Boudoir 0x6d4d…801d | No | SELL | 87 | 99¢ | $86 | 0x3782d2… |
| 05-05 10:45:16 | Worrisome-Restructuring 0xa5b1…6e46 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe9caab… |
| 05-05 08:06:08 | Aching-Quarter 0xecc7…b16d | Yes | BUY | 294 | 2¢ | $5 | 0x5a6187… |
| 05-05 06:45:14 | Large-Route 0x8033…2685 | Yes | BUY | 180 | 1¢ | $2 | 0xb8c395… |
| 05-05 05:59:50 | Sharp-Triangle 0xae77…829c | Yes | BUY | 374 | 1¢ | $4 | 0xe55949… |
| 05-05 05:40:06 | Puny-Pomelo 0xd347…bade | Yes | SELL | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x941386… |
| 05-05 04:25:02 | Common-Kettle 0x9729…0788 | No | BUY | 105 | 98¢ | $103 | 0x96a64d… |
| 05-05 04:25:02 | Sardonic-Howitzer 0x0d9c…c208 | No | BUY | 69 | 98¢ | $68 | 0xc4581f… |
| 05-05 04:25:02 | Bare-Toothpick 0xf227…6a47 | No | BUY | 84 | 98¢ | $82 | 0x1c68c3… |
| 05-05 04:25:02 | Worrisome-Restructuring 0xa5b1…6e46 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb2dbe7… |
| 05-05 04:25:02 | Vast-Legend 0xc7e8…43c6 | No | BUY | 56 | 98¢ | $55 | 0x67122a… |
| 05-05 04:25:02 | Lone-Beginning 0x6821…63a4 | No | BUY | 71 | 98¢ | $70 | 0x799ccc… |
| 05-05 03:45:34 | Damp-Semester 0xc886…aefd | Yes | SELL | 275 | 2¢ | $5 | 0x9f81dd… |
| 05-05 03:35:38 | Failing-Manor 0xc92a…2f2e | Yes | BUY | 94 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xc02e92… |
| 05-05 03:24:54 | Pastel-Makeup 0xb821…a2ec | No | BUY | 127 | 98¢ | $125 | 0x705a28… |
| 05-05 03:24:54 | Shiny-Collaboration 0x2b0f…022e | No | BUY | 37 | 98¢ | $36 | 0xb8c78e… |
| 05-05 03:24:54 | Eager-Past 0xabf6…f743 | No | BUY | 86 | 98¢ | $84 | 0xcd3c3e… |
| 05-05 03:24:52 | Squeaky-Occurrence-Pick 0x899a…2aed | No | BUY | 138 | 98¢ | $136 | 0x3222ab… |
| 05-05 03:04:54 | Unwieldy-Denim 0x211c…8501 | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0xbfdc7f… |
| 05-05 02:50:02 | Puny-Pomelo 0xd347…bade | Yes | BUY | 315 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x352eba… |
| 05-05 02:50:02 | Remarkable-Fitness 0xb936…b602 | Yes | BUY | 91 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xe86e8f… |
| 05-05 02:09:40 | Grown-Lumberman 0x7e2a…f7c6 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xe75b1f… |
| 05-05 02:09:40 | Active-Thrill-Glue 0xa879…569c | No | SELL | 32 | 98¢ | $31 | 0x5633f4… |
| 05-05 02:09:40 | Experienced-Den-Task 0x2748…385d | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x1287e1… |
| 05-05 02:09:40 | Complete-Gram 0xe6ae…78cc | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0xdd40ad… |
| 05-05 02:09:40 | Meaty-Hydrocarb 0x9dc9…fded | No | SELL | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0xf34532… |
| 05-05 02:09:40 | High-Federation 0x71f7…8d27 | No | SELL | 21 | 98¢ | $21 | 0x669a8b… |
| 05-05 01:34:50 | Sophisticated-Exterior 0xc694…509d | No | BUY | 79 | 98¢ | $78 | 0x4d9c5b… |
| 05-05 01:34:48 | Lively-Armpit 0xd50f…a14e | No | BUY | 96 | 98¢ | $94 | 0xf3dfee… |
| 05-05 01:34:48 | Luminous-Recommendation 0x06e8…1b48 | No | BUY | 100 | 98¢ | $98 | 0x8ea9c0… |
| 05-05 01:09:46 | Usable-Tournament 0x5cbb…7b75 | Yes | BUY | 115 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xdff91c… |
| 05-05 01:09:46 | Fair-Queen 0x8098…5eb2 | Yes | BUY | 246 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xa0cb92… |
| 05-05 00:44:38 | Cluttered-Incense 0x4add…8cdf | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xcf5358… |
| 05-05 00:29:44 | Incredible-Icing 0xe132…5e44 | No | BUY | 91 | 98¢ | $89 | 0x712c16… |
| 05-05 00:29:44 | Thorny-Perpendicular 0x9ada…6ccf | No | BUY | 68 | 98¢ | $67 | 0x34b54b… |
| 05-05 00:29:44 | Bland-Turnstile 0xb93c…4c26 | No | BUY | 81 | 98¢ | $79 | 0x48650a… |
| 05-04 23:54:52 | Common-Kettle 0x9729…0788 | Yes | BUY | 298 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x3232d5… |
| 05-04 23:29:38 | Free-Meridian 0xd15e…bb9e | Yes | BUY | 336 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x7a0a4a… |
| 05-04 22:14:52 | Keen-Goodnight 0xe7dc…8c36 | No | SELL | 37 | 98¢ | $36 | 0x0c5b95… |
| 05-04 22:14:52 | Fluid-Scenario 0xbb20…f302 | Yes | SELL | 95 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x2c342a… |
| 05-04 22:04:52 | Worst-Corn 0xa25b…9de2 | Yes | BUY | 117 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xd02ca5… |
| 05-04 21:09:42 | Biodegradable-Siege 0x61ab…78b4 | Yes | BUY | 119 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x5ee6eb… |
| 05-04 21:09:42 | Lopsided-Seizure 0x1b57…e7e8 | No | BUY | 27 | 98¢ | $26 | 0x491022… |
| 05-04 21:09:42 | Unfortunate-Train 0x3c41…c2e1 | Yes | BUY | 98 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x1ef5eb… |
| 05-04 21:09:40 | Impish-Application 0x2605…83e5 | No | BUY | 36 | 98¢ | $35 | 0xf6d30e… |
| 05-04 21:09:40 | Remote-Brushfire 0xa2e0…964a | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x2823a3… |
| 05-04 21:09:40 | Truthful-Dinner 0x5902…b417 | Yes | BUY | 86 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x8d0ead… |