Realized P&L
+$297
Unrealized P&L
+$430
Hit rate
47.3%
Resolved
20
Trades
354,286
lifetime
Volume
$1.20M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$2.95K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
56% 83% +$768
Other
32% 40% $-3
Sports
8% 0% $-519
Tech
2%
Crypto
2% 100% +$52
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 8544 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No +641 $83 64¢ $407 +$324 06-07 21:10
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +887 $133 26¢ $231 +$98 06-09 23:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +268 $112 70¢ $189 +$77 05-31 06:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No +290 $103 63¢ $182 +$79 06-05 14:04
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No +983 $122 18¢ $182 +$60 06-09 22:20
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +451 $202 38¢ $174 $-28 06-09 23:06
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No +485 $122 34¢ $162 +$40 06-09 20:30
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +719 $201 20¢ $140 $-61 06-09 22:20
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +2,227 $90 $97 +$7 06-09 22:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +325 $112 30¢ $96 $-17 06-09 18:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes +2,743 $47 $95 +$48 06-09 23:06
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +165 $72 51¢ $84 +$13 06-04 00:33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes +349 $159 24¢ $82 $-77 06-09 21:24
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +148 $65 55¢ $81 +$16 06-07 22:00
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes +647 $70 11¢ $73 +$3 06-09 20:52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes +256 $88 28¢ $70 $-18 06-09 18:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +584 $128 10¢ $56 $-73 06-09 18:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +535 $79 10¢ $51 $-28 06-09 23:03
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes +1,282 $41 $50 +$9 06-08 15:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +253 $57 18¢ $47 $-10 06-09 22:12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Yes +63 $30 70¢ $45 +$14 06-08 19:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -234 $-37 18¢ $-43 $-7 06-09 18:42
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes +144 $28 30¢ $43 +$15 06-09 19:44
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes -1,234 $-14 $-42 $-28 06-09 18:14
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No +85 $36 49¢ $42 +$5 06-09 11:44
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +78 $38 52¢ $40 +$3 06-09 12:09
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes +448 $58 $38 $-19 06-09 21:32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes +626 $58 $38 $-20 06-09 22:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes +101 $33 37¢ $37 +$4 06-09 18:46
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes +876 $37 $37 +$0 06-09 20:23