Realized P&L
+$297
Unrealized P&L
+$487
Hit rate
47.3%
Resolved
20
Trades
411,062
lifetime
Volume
$1.42M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$4.22K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
57% 83% +$768
Other
32% 40% $-3
Sports
7% 0% $-519
Tech
2%
Crypto
1% 100% +$52
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 8544 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +888 $291 70¢ $626 +$335 06-20 03:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +779 $319 66¢ $514 +$195 06-27 09:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +466 $271 100¢ $465 +$193 06-19 16:24
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +469 $225 76¢ $357 +$132 06-26 01:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +1,018 $410 34¢ $346 $-64 06-29 16:57
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +530 $238 41¢ $217 $-20 06-30 03:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +962 $100 18¢ $168 +$68 06-29 21:31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +293 $109 52¢ $154 +$45 06-24 10:07
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No +1,421 $105 10¢ $143 +$38 06-30 17:29
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes +146 $27 89¢ $130 +$103 06-10 15:34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -724 $-70 14¢ $-101 $-31 06-30 14:19
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +709 $91 14¢ $96 +$5 06-30 13:04
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +166 $71 56¢ $92 +$21 06-15 21:53
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +148 $66 59¢ $87 +$21 06-20 22:49
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes +804 $81 10¢ $84 +$3 06-30 15:37
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +133 $65 62¢ $82 +$17 06-22 02:44
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes +927 $66 $68 +$2 06-30 18:37
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes +467 $54 13¢ $63 +$9 06-27 20:18
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes +719 $52 $46 $-6 06-29 12:36
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +302 $47 15¢ $44 $-3 06-26 09:56
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +251 $59 16¢ $41 $-18 06-30 04:48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -135 $-41 30¢ $-40 +$1 06-30 15:57
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No +78 $29 49¢ $38 +$9 06-27 19:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +7,662 $585 $34 $-551 06-28 02:12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +66 $29 50¢ $34 +$5 06-29 23:51
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +350 $32 10¢ $33 +$1 06-27 19:22
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +256 $40 12¢ $32 $-8 06-23 17:05
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes +1,360 $44 $31 $-13 06-28 02:19
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +120 $39 26¢ $31 $-8 06-30 16:30
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +44 $20 64¢ $28 +$8 06-10 18:13