Realized P&L
-$6.07K
Unrealized P&L
+$450
Hit rate
40.6%
Resolved
1,304
Trades
533,919
lifetime
Volume
$1.88M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$1.76K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-21 09:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 194 days
Categories
Politics
55% 37% -$1,476
Other
30% 37% -$5,663
Sports
11% 32% -$637
Tech
2% 35% -$32
Crypto
1% 50% +$1,740
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
18 active days in 12wk • peak 98 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +208 $80 86¢ $180 +$100 06-20 03:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +137 -$77 88¢ $122 +$199 07-01 19:50
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +126 $52 96¢ $121 +$69 06-22 02:44
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +178 $83 55¢ $97 +$14 06-24 10:07
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +103 $40 92¢ $94 +$54 06-20 22:49
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes +1,830 $49 5¢ $90 +$40 06-25 07:28
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes -655 -$30 14¢ $-89 -$58 07-02 02:48
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +83 $31 92¢ $76 +$45 06-26 04:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +75 $40 94¢ $71 +$32 05-26 05:03
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +3,149 $33 2¢ $69 +$36 07-02 04:18
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -465 -$16 13¢ $-61 -$45 07-01 12:51
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +132 $53 38¢ $51 -$3 07-01 01:51
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +53 $33 94¢ $50 +$16 06-30 16:29
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes -786 -$27 6¢ $-48 -$21 06-26 23:29
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +98 $51 46¢ $45 -$6 07-01 05:32
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +220 $69 19¢ $43 -$26 06-30 16:24
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328 Yes +50 $25 84¢ $42 +$17 07-01 08:11
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -261 -$11 16¢ $-42 -$31 07-02 12:03
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922 Yes +53 $20 70¢ $37 +$17 06-28 17:59
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +54 $29 66¢ $35 +$6 07-02 17:19
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +880 $21 4¢ $33 +$12 07-03 09:24
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -1,150 -$35 3¢ $-32 +$3 06-24 03:16
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +48 $19 66¢ $32 +$13 07-02 21:32
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +59 $23 55¢ $32 +$8 06-21 01:53
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes +52 -$3 60¢ $32 +$34 07-01 11:43
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +463 $60 6¢ $30 -$29 07-02 15:54
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +1,542 $39 2¢ $30 -$9 07-01 21:25
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? Yes -94 -$17 28¢ $-26 -$9 06-30 03:56
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes +832 $65 3¢ $26 -$39 07-01 09:06
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -216 -$38 12¢ $-26 +$12 07-02 03:02