Realized P&L
+$297
Unrealized P&L
+$472
Hit rate
47.3%
Resolved
20
Trades
410,936
lifetime
Volume
$1.42M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$4.17K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 00:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
57% 83% +$768
Other
32% 40% $-3
Sports
7% 0% $-519
Tech
2%
Crypto
1% 100% +$52
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 8544 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +888 $291 72¢ $635 +$344 06-20 03:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +779 $319 62¢ $487 +$168 06-27 09:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +466 $271 100¢ $465 +$193 06-19 16:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +1,018 $410 38¢ $382 $-28 06-29 16:57
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +469 $225 76¢ $359 +$134 06-26 01:19
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +530 $238 40¢ $212 $-26 06-30 03:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +962 $100 18¢ $168 +$68 06-29 21:31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +293 $109 52¢ $154 +$45 06-24 10:07
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No +1,588 $122 $135 +$13 06-30 05:01
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes +146 $27 90¢ $131 +$103 06-10 15:34
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +148 $66 60¢ $89 +$23 06-20 22:49
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +166 $71 52¢ $87 +$16 06-15 21:53
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes +848 $86 $79 $-7 06-30 00:49
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes +864 $61 $72 +$11 06-30 01:57
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +562 $70 12¢ $70 +$0 06-29 12:35
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +133 $65 52¢ $69 +$4 06-22 02:44
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -649 $-61 11¢ $-68 $-7 06-29 12:47
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes +467 $54 13¢ $63 +$9 06-27 20:18
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +186 $56 26¢ $48 $-8 06-28 00:40
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes +719 $52 $46 $-6 06-29 12:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +7,662 $585 $42 $-543 06-28 02:12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +302 $47 14¢ $41 $-6 06-26 09:56
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +251 $59 16¢ $39 $-20 06-30 04:48
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No +78 $29 48¢ $38 +$9 06-27 19:35
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -125 $-38 29¢ $-35 +$2 06-28 19:19
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +350 $32 10¢ $33 +$1 06-27 19:22
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +256 $40 12¢ $32 $-8 06-23 17:05
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes -67 $-30 48¢ $-32 $-2 06-29 23:41
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +66 $29 48¢ $32 +$3 06-29 23:51
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes +1,360 $44 $31 $-13 06-28 02:19