Realized P&L
+$297
Unrealized P&L
+$1.42K
Hit rate
47.3%
Resolved
20
Trades
411,485
lifetime
Volume
$1.42M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$3.87K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-03 12:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
57% 83% +$768
Other
32% 40% $-3
Sports
7% 0% $-519
Tech
2%
Crypto
1% 100% +$52
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 4773 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +779 $319 99¢ $768 +$450 06-27 09:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +888 $291 80¢ $706 +$415 06-20 03:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +959 $100 44¢ $427 +$327 07-01 19:50
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +469 $225 81¢ $380 +$156 06-26 01:19
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +533 $239 34¢ $179 $-60 07-01 20:20
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +293 $109 60¢ $175 +$65 06-24 10:07
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes +146 $27 88¢ $129 +$102 06-10 15:34
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +148 $66 66¢ $99 +$32 06-20 22:49
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +166 $71 58¢ $97 +$26 06-15 21:53
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes +909 $91 $85 $-6 07-02 04:51
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +133 $65 60¢ $80 +$15 06-22 02:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +302 $47 26¢ $77 +$30 06-26 09:56
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -638 $-58 11¢ $-72 $-15 07-02 11:01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +715 $91 $61 $-31 07-01 12:23
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes +896 $63 $50 $-13 07-01 09:06
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes +467 $54 10¢ $48 $-5 06-27 20:18
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No +87 $34 50¢ $43 +$10 07-01 10:37
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +333 $72 12¢ $42 $-30 07-02 13:33
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes +814 $58 $41 $-17 07-01 07:31
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -71 $-33 52¢ $-38 $-5 07-01 07:28
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +153 $47 22¢ $33 $-14 07-02 17:49
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +256 $40 12¢ $32 $-8 06-23 17:05
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +66 $29 48¢ $32 +$3 06-29 23:51
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes -73 $-32 40¢ $-29 +$3 07-03 00:33
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -62 $-5 43¢ $-27 $-22 06-30 16:29
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +44 $20 57¢ $25 +$5 06-10 18:13
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No -50 $-22 50¢ $-25 $-3 06-15 08:18
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -54 $-26 46¢ $-25 +$1 06-18 07:48
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes +537 $20 $23 +$4 07-01 07:11
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +140 $21 16¢ $23 +$3 07-02 00:05