Classic-Parallelogram — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.96K

Unrealized P&L

-$311

Hit rate

74.6%

Resolved

1,119

Trades

8,057

lifetime

Volume

$289.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$2.81K

30 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-28 16:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 138 days

Categories

Politics

66% 51% -$6,207

Other

32% 51% -$832

Sports

2% 48% +$165

Tech

0% 80% -$123

Crypto

0% 100% +$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+270	$265	98¢	$264	-$1	10-27 15:09
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+500	$208	39¢	$194	-$14	07-01 12:27
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+198	$160	96¢	$190	+$30	09-13 15:15
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	+200	$158	94¢	$189	+$31	06-25 01:46
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	-510	-$124	36¢	$-181	-$57	06-15 17:35
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+200	$130	90¢	$181	+$51	07-06 10:51
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+206	$173	88¢	$180	+$7	10-27 15:06
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	+200	$11	88¢	$176	+$165	08-12 19:26
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+300	$282	56¢	$169	-$113	05-28 06:36
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Yes	+200	$126	70¢	$141	+$15	08-06 18:18
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+132	$128	97¢	$128	+$0	10-27 16:03
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	+120	$103	96¢	$115	+$12	05-09 19:14
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+100	$96	99¢	$99	+$3	10-27 14:51
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	+100	$83	98¢	$98	+$15	09-30 00:23
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+500	$114	17¢	$87	-$28	07-01 12:27
russia coup attempt in 2026	No	+89	$77	97¢	$86	+$9	07-02 12:07
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+80	$64	92¢	$74	+$10	05-11 14:32
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+200	$125	26¢	$51	-$74	10-27 15:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+300	$216	13¢	$38	-$178	06-18 16:21
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+100	$25	37¢	$37	+$12	09-25 17:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	+280	$90	12¢	$35	-$55	06-22 11:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+280	$208	12¢	$32	-$176	06-10 22:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$65	16¢	$23	-$42	06-26 04:17
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	+100	$17	20¢	$19	+$2	07-11 19:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-130	-$75	6¢	$-7	+$68	06-23 00:04
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	Yes	+100	$1	4¢	$4	+$2	07-27 00:05
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	+100	$11	3¢	$3	-$8	07-10 02:16
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Yes	+100	$1	2¢	$2	+$2	07-31 12:30
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	+50	$3	2¢	$1	-$2	10-26 02:09
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+100	$0	1¢	$1	+$0	07-04 10:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	88	$15.9K	11,537	12,427	-890	No	+$333	04-25 08:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	14	$4.0K	3,900	4,200	-300	No	-$2	04-22 15:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	25	$3.8K	1,720	2,189	-469	No	+$6	04-24 17:40
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	13	$3.2K	3,000	1,700	+1,300	Yes	-$182	05-01 21:16
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	6	$3.1K	1,594	1,594	+0	No	+$72	04-21 19:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$2.7K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$73	04-22 14:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	5	$2.5K	1,200	1,390	-190	No	+$27	04-23 20:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	10	$2.5K	1,842	1,000	+841	No	+$37	04-30 11:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	20	$2.4K	1,500	1,436	+64	No	-$259	04-14 15:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	16	$2.4K	1,200	1,290	-90	No	+$105	04-23 20:58
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	33	$2.3K	1,769	1,288	+481	No	-$125	04-25 10:20
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	23	$2.1K	1,461	700	+761	No	+$62	06-30 22:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	18	$2.0K	2,620	1,600	+1,020	Yes	-$958	05-08 11:40
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	15	$2.0K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$22	07-07 16:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$88	05-07 07:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	17	$1.9K	999	1,034	-35	No	+$3	04-07 22:14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$110	04-26 13:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	22	$1.9K	909	1,000	-91	No	+$51	05-26 13:51
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	38	$1.8K	1,506	1,664	-158	No	-$44	04-21 21:25
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	69	$1.8K	1,593	2,195	-601	No	-$972	05-26 07:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	7	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$2	04-07 21:47
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	12	$1.7K	1,000	800	+200	No	+$73	05-30 21:04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	12	$1.7K	800	1,000	-200	No	+$83	04-22 09:24
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	13	$1.7K	1,800	0	+1,800	Yes	+$138	05-01 21:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$1.5K	900	1,210	-310	No	+$660	06-27 16:43
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	13	$1.5K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$103	04-19 19:54
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	8	$1.5K	800	790	+10	No	+$14	04-24 16:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	-$1,459	04-07 17:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	10	$1.4K	950	960	-10	No	-$142	05-07 16:18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	8	$1.4K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$236	04-20 23:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:30:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0xc41613…
10-28 12:47:47	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.14% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x93af58…
10-28 12:47:35	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% in October?	No	BUY	129	99¢	$128	0x7e92d3…
10-28 12:46:47	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5ec674…
10-28 12:46:40	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd48e11…
10-28 12:46:32	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.76% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x844f26…
10-28 12:46:19	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% in October?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xbf06df…
10-28 12:46:11	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.85% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x47dd3e…
10-28 12:46:07	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x892952…
10-28 12:46:01	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.95% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa53ce3…
10-28 12:45:13	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x06e05a…
10-28 12:44:49	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	No	BUY	241	99¢	$240	0x4d524c…
10-28 12:44:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2f05ee…
10-28 12:44:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x85a978…
10-28 12:27:22	Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	65¢	$39	0xec7d3f…
10-28 12:24:07	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	316	100¢	$316	0x992afb…
10-28 12:23:58	Will Shas win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x2ccc96…
10-28 12:23:47	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	405	100¢	$405	0x45d464…
10-28 12:22:49	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% in October?	No	BUY	132	97¢	$128	0xbac2fb…
10-28 12:21:23	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?	No	BUY	394	100¢	$393	0x0203d1…
10-28 12:19:52	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in October?	No	BUY	251	99¢	$250	0xce65c7…
10-28 12:19:34	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in October?	No	BUY	278	99¢	$276	0x55ec73…
10-28 12:19:13	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.17% in October?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xce1718…
10-28 12:14:16	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0xcfd12d…
10-28 11:57:10	Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	184	98¢	$181	0xd0fc44…
10-28 09:10:52	Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0xa27e38…
10-27 18:03:05	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	305	98¢	$297	0xc2e8f6…
10-27 18:03:05	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x50e19c…
10-27 17:40:32	Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	55	31¢	$17	0x785921…
10-27 17:40:32	Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x5c95a7…
10-27 17:23:59	Will Geoffrey Summers win the next Burnie mayoral election?	No	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0x7e0656…
10-27 17:18:48	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	72	96¢	$69	0x2f4b4c…
10-27 17:18:35	Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	127	98¢	$125	0x89bb77…
10-27 17:18:27	Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	235	98¢	$230	0x177ef8…
10-27 17:18:15	Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	78	98¢	$76	0x9ffbf4…
10-27 17:18:08	Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	216	98¢	$212	0x642c6f…
10-27 17:18:00	Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	158	98¢	$155	0x518efa…
10-27 16:11:18	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xdfa323…
10-27 16:11:02	Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x86937f…
10-27 16:10:48	Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xe5ecee…
10-27 16:03:39	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	132	97¢	$128	0x565f24…
10-27 15:58:05	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0xdf52fa…
10-27 15:43:15	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xf75477…
10-27 15:12:15	Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0xe54e40…
10-27 15:12:15	Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x6f05c3…
10-27 15:12:15	Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x07fcb5…
10-27 15:09:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$125	0x7fca51…
10-27 15:09:29	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	270	98¢	$265	0xa96bc0…
10-27 15:08:03	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xdd0348…
10-27 15:07:27	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x8d6803…
10-27 15:07:05	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	321	98¢	$316	0x9e9824…
10-27 15:06:54	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	166	98¢	$163	0x21892d…
10-27 15:06:38	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	206	84¢	$173	0xdd72f4…
10-27 14:56:54	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x8d7a95…
10-27 14:56:42	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xcba074…
10-27 14:56:30	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x1fb0c5…
10-27 14:56:14	Will Shas win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0x0678ad…
10-27 14:51:06	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xbb4c32…
10-27 14:45:32	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x079edb…
10-27 12:53:54	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x6236d1…
10-27 12:53:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x8521e9…
10-27 12:53:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in October?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x56d4f3…
10-27 02:59:26	Will Nasiphi Moya be the next mayor of Tshwane?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x4f3364…
10-26 19:50:54	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 105.00 in October?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x746716…
10-26 18:21:21	Will Dillon Roberts win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x3ee36c…
10-26 15:35:36	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 105.00 in October?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x98e28c…
10-26 15:13:51	msft close above 510 on october 27 2026	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xb38139…
10-26 12:41:57	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x604886…
10-26 12:40:05	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% in October?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x00a890…
10-26 12:39:54	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?	No	BUY	65	95¢	$62	0xe629f5…
10-26 12:38:50	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?	No	BUY	723	98¢	$710	0xb06f7c…
10-26 12:38:18	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.14% in October?	No	BUY	232	99¢	$229	0x7f64fb…
10-26 12:37:51	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in October?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0xafc9e7…
10-26 12:37:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?	No	BUY	107	98¢	$105	0xac2644…
10-26 12:30:27	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x435dbf…
10-26 11:27:02	Will SDP BiH win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x3047b6…
10-26 10:34:21	Will SDP BiH win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x5f4703…
10-26 09:44:44	Will SDP BiH win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x4a1caf…
10-26 09:38:42	Will HDZ BiH win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x672e52…
10-26 09:34:17	Will SDP BiH win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf35651…
10-26 09:34:17	Will SDP BiH win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xe00d2b…
10-26 09:34:17	Will NiP win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0x34691c…
10-26 09:34:17	Will SDS win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0x27d7a3…
10-26 02:09:33	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x6d1bde…
10-25 21:46:26	Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	180	0¢	$1	0x21487e…
10-25 21:42:32	Will Dillon Roberts win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x26fd21…
10-25 20:52:57	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x89bfd3…
10-25 20:39:09	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xecc501…
10-25 20:33:20	Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa61af9…
10-25 20:20:02	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x15106d…
10-25 19:36:44	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x4e89e0…
10-25 19:18:03	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xf569a7…
10-25 19:18:03	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0x98f510…
10-25 19:18:02	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xe035ba…
10-25 19:18:02	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x38030b…
10-25 19:18:02	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	27	1¢	$0	0x1604bc…
10-25 16:17:36	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xb79492…
10-25 12:18:03	Will Nasiphi Moya be the next mayor of Tshwane?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xb2cbba…
10-25 09:20:29	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x560170…
10-25 05:09:24	Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane?	No	BUY	34	43¢	$15	0x5d767b…