Realized P&L
+$703
Unrealized P&L
+$2.03K
Hit rate
96.7%
Resolved
8
Trades
5,325
lifetime
Volume
$1.36M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$255
Open exposure
$71.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 13:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
56%
75%
+$434
Politics
43%
100%
+$268
Crypto
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk
• peak 394 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | +8,439 | $7,920 | 96¢ | $8.1K | +$139 | 07-04 13:05 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -7,229 | $-7,374 | 96¢ | $-6904 | +$470 | 07-09 08:36 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,500 | $4,700 | 92¢ | $5.0K | +$332 | 07-01 09:49 | |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | No | +5,255 | $4,346 | 92¢ | $4.9K | +$515 | 07-05 14:32 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | +4,595 | $4,099 | 92¢ | $4.2K | +$151 | 07-17 01:19 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +4,500 | $4,090 | 92¢ | $4.2K | +$72 | 07-02 02:09 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | -4,182 | $-3,967 | 94¢ | $-3952 | +$15 | 07-20 13:28 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +4,206 | $3,547 | 90¢ | $3.8K | +$217 | 06-21 06:33 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | +3,726 | $3,429 | 97¢ | $3.6K | +$184 | 07-14 09:18 | |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | -3,777 | $-3,009 | 84¢ | $-3154 | $-144 | 07-02 07:24 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | No | -2,798 | $-2,683 | 98¢ | $-2753 | $-70 | 07-18 18:23 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? | No | +2,631 | $2,466 | 94¢ | $2.5K | +$20 | 07-10 19:30 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | -2,492 | $-2,342 | 96¢ | $-2387 | $-45 | 06-05 05:48 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | -2,315 | $-2,189 | 96¢ | $-2215 | $-26 | 06-09 07:02 | |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? | No | +2,044 | $1,749 | 88¢ | $1.8K | +$60 | 07-04 08:04 | |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | No | +1,788 | $1,698 | 97¢ | $1.7K | +$36 | 07-02 02:17 | |
| Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? | No | +1,435 | $1,352 | 97¢ | $1.4K | +$43 | 07-01 16:50 | |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? | No | +1,369 | $1,212 | 96¢ | $1.3K | +$96 | 06-21 13:40 | |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? | No | +1,193 | $1,060 | 96¢ | $1.1K | +$83 | 07-03 07:36 | |
| Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? | No | +1,123 | $930 | 96¢ | $1.1K | +$153 | 07-18 10:01 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | -746 | $-717 | 96¢ | $-719 | $-2 | 07-01 16:31 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | -682 | $-906 | 99¢ | $-673 | +$233 | 06-23 10:40 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? | No | -617 | $-599 | 97¢ | $-598 | +$1 | 07-03 09:45 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +1,016 | $677 | 56¢ | $574 | $-103 | 07-08 16:26 | |
| Obama arrested before 2027? | No | +500 | $455 | 97¢ | $487 | +$32 | 06-12 05:17 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +646 | $981 | 74¢ | $474 | $-506 | 07-19 20:17 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | +567 | $651 | 78¢ | $439 | $-212 | 07-17 20:49 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | -2,971 | $-658 | 12¢ | $-371 | +$286 | 06-26 03:25 | |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | No | +326 | $302 | 94¢ | $307 | +$5 | 07-09 08:38 | |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | +300 | $273 | 90¢ | $272 | $-2 | 07-12 14:59 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fact check maduro capture staged | 185 | $180.4K | 96,279 | 88,557 | +7,722 | open | — | 03-30 04:55 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 141 | $84.5K | 52,236 | 33,492 | +18,745 | open | — | 02-22 17:12 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 27 | $74.2K | 50,864 | 23,656 | +27,208 | open | — | 01-31 05:15 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 123 | $65.4K | 27,947 | 39,679 | -11,731 | open | — | 03-21 23:12 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | 221 | $63.4K | 40,472 | 25,106 | +15,366 | open | — | 05-14 03:02 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659 | 214 | $62.5K | 31,416 | 33,229 | -1,813 | open | — | 04-07 23:01 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 720 | $50.9K | 23,145 | 30,383 | -7,238 | open | — | 07-09 08:36 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 66 | $34.5K | 21,825 | 20,825 | +1,000 | open | — | 04-07 22:13 |
| will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255 | 41 | $29.3K | 18,078 | 11,716 | +6,363 | open | — | 03-24 18:11 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 99 | $28.9K | 16,362 | 14,089 | +2,273 | Yes | +$417 | 04-26 01:46 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 15 | $25.5K | 12,860 | 12,860 | +0 | open | — | 05-12 20:37 |
| bill clinton in jail by december 31 | 840 | $24.2K | 13,330 | 10,973 | +2,358 | open | — | 01-31 12:37 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 40 | $23.6K | 20,567 | 4,000 | +16,567 | open | — | 03-01 16:42 |
| will germany strike iran by march 31 | 55 | $23.5K | 15,653 | 8,121 | +7,532 | open | — | 03-28 14:58 |
| odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794 | 73 | $23.3K | 12,436 | 12,080 | +357 | open | — | 03-25 15:52 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 43 | $22.3K | 16,680 | 17,855 | -1,174 | open | — | 04-07 22:54 |
| odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 30 by march 31 645 | 76 | $20.7K | 12,900 | 9,355 | +3,546 | open | — | 03-25 15:53 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 32 | $19.7K | 8,493 | 11,493 | -3,000 | open | — | 03-25 23:41 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 6 | $15.8K | 8,000 | 8,000 | +0 | open | — | 04-04 04:12 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | 160 | $15.4K | 11,163 | 4,365 | +6,798 | open | — | 06-24 20:32 |
| us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31 | 32 | $14.9K | 11,962 | 3,285 | +8,677 | open | — | 01-26 02:15 |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | 53 | $14.4K | 6,287 | 8,300 | -2,013 | No | +$108 | 05-12 14:47 |
| will bitcoin dip to 40k in february 2026 785 212 222 | 13 | $13.9K | 7,725 | 7,725 | -0 | open | — | 02-06 01:09 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | 3 | $12.0K | 7,000 | 5,682 | +1,318 | open | — | 06-23 10:40 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st | 2 | $11.6K | 11,664 | 0 | +11,664 | open | — | 04-01 04:49 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 40 | $11.6K | 6,755 | 5,013 | +1,742 | No | +$42 | 04-27 01:45 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | 32 | $11.5K | 8,581 | 3,633 | +4,948 | open | — | 07-14 09:18 |
| nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026 | 32 | $11.0K | 10,407 | 746 | +9,662 | open | — | 01-28 15:23 |
| jd vance out as vp by december 31 | 9 | $10.9K | 6,000 | 6,000 | +0 | open | — | 06-24 20:41 |
| nicolas sarkozy in jail by march 31 | 51 | $10.9K | 9,576 | 1,489 | +8,087 | open | — | 03-31 18:18 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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