Realized P&L
+$703
Unrealized P&L
+$320
Hit rate
96.7%
Resolved
8
Trades
3,984
lifetime
Volume
$1.20M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$301
Open exposure
$59.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 23:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
58%
75%
+$434
Politics
41%
100%
+$268
Crypto
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk
• peak 231 trades/day
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fact check maduro capture staged | 185 | $180.4K | 96,279 | 88,557 | +7,722 | open | — | 03-30 04:55 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 141 | $84.5K | 52,236 | 33,492 | +18,745 | open | — | 02-22 17:12 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 27 | $74.2K | 50,864 | 23,656 | +27,208 | open | — | 01-31 05:15 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 123 | $65.4K | 27,947 | 39,679 | -11,731 | open | — | 03-21 23:12 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | 221 | $63.4K | 40,472 | 25,106 | +15,366 | open | — | 05-14 03:02 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659 | 214 | $62.5K | 31,416 | 33,229 | -1,813 | open | — | 04-07 23:01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 66 | $34.5K | 21,825 | 20,825 | +1,000 | open | — | 04-07 22:13 |
| will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255 | 41 | $29.3K | 18,078 | 11,716 | +6,363 | open | — | 03-24 18:11 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 99 | $28.9K | 16,362 | 14,089 | +2,273 | Yes | +$417 | 04-26 01:46 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 15 | $25.5K | 12,860 | 12,860 | +0 | open | — | 05-12 20:37 |
| bill clinton in jail by december 31 | 840 | $24.2K | 13,330 | 10,973 | +2,358 | open | — | 01-31 12:37 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 40 | $23.6K | 20,567 | 4,000 | +16,567 | open | — | 03-01 16:42 |
| will germany strike iran by march 31 | 55 | $23.5K | 15,653 | 8,121 | +7,532 | open | — | 03-28 14:58 |
| odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794 | 73 | $23.3K | 12,436 | 12,080 | +357 | open | — | 03-25 15:52 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 43 | $22.3K | 16,680 | 17,855 | -1,174 | open | — | 04-07 22:54 |
| odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 30 by march 31 645 | 76 | $20.7K | 12,900 | 9,355 | +3,546 | open | — | 03-25 15:53 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 32 | $19.7K | 8,493 | 11,493 | -3,000 | open | — | 03-25 23:41 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 6 | $15.8K | 8,000 | 8,000 | +0 | open | — | 04-04 04:12 |
| us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31 | 32 | $14.9K | 11,962 | 3,285 | +8,677 | open | — | 01-26 02:15 |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | 53 | $14.4K | 6,287 | 8,300 | -2,013 | No | +$108 | 05-12 14:47 |
| will bitcoin dip to 40k in february 2026 785 212 222 | 13 | $13.9K | 7,725 | 7,725 | -0 | open | — | 02-06 01:09 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 49 | $13.0K | 13,882 | 0 | +13,882 | open | — | 06-09 03:42 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st | 2 | $11.6K | 11,664 | 0 | +11,664 | open | — | 04-01 04:49 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 40 | $11.6K | 6,755 | 5,013 | +1,742 | No | +$42 | 04-27 01:45 |
| nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026 | 32 | $11.0K | 10,407 | 746 | +9,662 | open | — | 01-28 15:23 |
| nicolas sarkozy in jail by march 31 | 51 | $10.9K | 9,576 | 1,489 | +8,087 | open | — | 03-31 18:18 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | 40 | $10.9K | 8,945 | 2,629 | +6,315 | open | — | 05-29 19:34 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | 12 | $10.1K | 10,231 | 0 | +10,231 | open | — | 06-10 01:54 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? | 64 | $10.0K | 5,746 | 5,746 | +0 | open | — | 05-15 23:14 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677 | 49 | $10.0K | 6,075 | 6,075 | +0 | open | — | 04-07 22:34 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 97 | $744.0K | 12,556 | 06-10 04:02 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 97 | $145.3K | 1,142 | 06-09 15:05 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 88 | $9.96K | 2,299 | 06-09 15:52 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 86 | $16.4M | 23,971 | 06-10 01:15 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | 85 | $20.9K | 8,953 | 06-09 16:22 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | 83 | $19.3K | 9,139 | 06-09 21:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 80 | $6.17K | 4,699 | 06-04 13:33 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 73 | $266.9K | 20,030 | 06-01 01:54 |