Realized P&L
+$703
Unrealized P&L
+$1.26K
Hit rate
96.7%
Resolved
8
Trades
4,528
lifetime
Volume
$1.26M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$279
Open exposure
$81.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 23:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
58%
75%
+$434
Politics
41%
100%
+$268
Crypto
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk
• peak 135 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +14,877 | $13,887 | 94¢ | $14.0K | +$149 | 06-26 05:06 | |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | +8,305 | $7,794 | 94¢ | $7.8K | +$54 | 06-29 20:32 | |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | +6,798 | $6,662 | 100¢ | $6.8K | +$129 | 06-24 20:32 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +4,206 | $3,547 | 88¢ | $3.7K | +$175 | 06-21 06:33 | |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | No | +3,991 | $3,459 | 86¢ | $3.4K | $-27 | 06-30 12:51 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | No | -3,274 | $-3,263 | 100¢ | $-3270 | $-8 | 06-21 13:48 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,500 | $2,980 | 86¢ | $3.0K | +$47 | 06-30 07:27 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | +2,836 | $2,801 | 100¢ | $2.8K | +$29 | 06-26 09:51 | |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | -3,484 | $-2,772 | 80¢ | $-2804 | $-33 | 06-30 23:10 | |
| US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | No | -2,463 | $-2,433 | 100¢ | $-2461 | $-27 | 06-03 03:01 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | -2,492 | $-2,342 | 96¢ | $-2399 | $-57 | 06-05 05:48 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,535 | $-2,386 | 94¢ | $-2383 | +$3 | 06-27 16:03 | |
| Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? | No | +2,301 | $2,245 | 100¢ | $2.3K | +$54 | 06-05 16:15 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +2,500 | $2,250 | 90¢ | $2.3K | +$12 | 06-26 20:47 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | -2,315 | $-2,189 | 96¢ | $-2212 | $-23 | 06-09 07:02 | |
| Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | -2,212 | $-2,189 | 100¢ | $-2209 | $-20 | 06-22 12:06 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,358 | $2,079 | 92¢ | $2.2K | +$78 | 06-08 20:16 | |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? | No | -2,113 | $-2,102 | 100¢ | $-2111 | $-8 | 06-05 11:02 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +2,467 | $2,066 | 86¢ | $2.1K | +$44 | 06-21 13:48 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | No | -1,477 | $-1,407 | 96¢ | $-1413 | $-6 | 06-12 22:54 | |
| Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | No | +1,291 | $1,255 | 100¢ | $1.3K | +$35 | 06-24 17:23 | |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? | No | +1,369 | $1,212 | 92¢ | $1.3K | +$41 | 06-21 13:40 | |
| Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? | No | +1,182 | $997 | 90¢ | $1.1K | +$72 | 06-24 13:15 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +1,071 | $894 | 99¢ | $1.1K | +$170 | 06-29 08:17 | |
| Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027? | No | +993 | $906 | 97¢ | $967 | +$61 | 06-25 08:15 | |
| Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? | No | +966 | $850 | 94¢ | $904 | +$53 | 06-15 19:37 | |
| Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? | No | +822 | $772 | 94¢ | $777 | +$5 | 06-13 08:26 | |
| Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | +756 | $748 | 100¢ | $754 | +$6 | 06-09 23:46 | |
| Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | +755 | $735 | 99¢ | $750 | +$15 | 06-10 16:15 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | -682 | $-906 | 98¢ | $-667 | +$239 | 06-23 10:40 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fact check maduro capture staged | 185 | $180.4K | 96,279 | 88,557 | +7,722 | open | — | 03-30 04:55 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 141 | $84.5K | 52,236 | 33,492 | +18,745 | open | — | 02-22 17:12 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 27 | $74.2K | 50,864 | 23,656 | +27,208 | open | — | 01-31 05:15 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 123 | $65.4K | 27,947 | 39,679 | -11,731 | open | — | 03-21 23:12 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | 221 | $63.4K | 40,472 | 25,106 | +15,366 | open | — | 05-14 03:02 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659 | 214 | $62.5K | 31,416 | 33,229 | -1,813 | open | — | 04-07 23:01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 66 | $34.5K | 21,825 | 20,825 | +1,000 | open | — | 04-07 22:13 |
| will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255 | 41 | $29.3K | 18,078 | 11,716 | +6,363 | open | — | 03-24 18:11 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 99 | $28.9K | 16,362 | 14,089 | +2,273 | Yes | +$417 | 04-26 01:46 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 15 | $25.5K | 12,860 | 12,860 | +0 | open | — | 05-12 20:37 |
| bill clinton in jail by december 31 | 840 | $24.2K | 13,330 | 10,973 | +2,358 | open | — | 01-31 12:37 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 40 | $23.6K | 20,567 | 4,000 | +16,567 | open | — | 03-01 16:42 |
| will germany strike iran by march 31 | 55 | $23.5K | 15,653 | 8,121 | +7,532 | open | — | 03-28 14:58 |
| odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794 | 73 | $23.3K | 12,436 | 12,080 | +357 | open | — | 03-25 15:52 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 43 | $22.3K | 16,680 | 17,855 | -1,174 | open | — | 04-07 22:54 |
| odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 30 by march 31 645 | 76 | $20.7K | 12,900 | 9,355 | +3,546 | open | — | 03-25 15:53 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 32 | $19.7K | 8,493 | 11,493 | -3,000 | open | — | 03-25 23:41 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 6 | $15.8K | 8,000 | 8,000 | +0 | open | — | 04-04 04:12 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | 160 | $15.4K | 11,163 | 4,365 | +6,798 | open | — | 06-24 20:32 |
| us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31 | 32 | $14.9K | 11,962 | 3,285 | +8,677 | open | — | 01-26 02:15 |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | 53 | $14.4K | 6,287 | 8,300 | -2,013 | No | +$108 | 05-12 14:47 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 164 | $13.9K | 14,882 | 0 | +14,882 | open | — | 06-26 05:06 |
| will bitcoin dip to 40k in february 2026 785 212 222 | 13 | $13.9K | 7,725 | 7,725 | -0 | open | — | 02-06 01:09 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | 3 | $12.0K | 7,000 | 5,682 | +1,318 | open | — | 06-23 10:40 |
| trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st | 2 | $11.6K | 11,664 | 0 | +11,664 | open | — | 04-01 04:49 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 40 | $11.6K | 6,755 | 5,013 | +1,742 | No | +$42 | 04-27 01:45 |
| nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026 | 32 | $11.0K | 10,407 | 746 | +9,662 | open | — | 01-28 15:23 |
| jd vance out as vp by december 31 | 9 | $10.9K | 6,000 | 6,000 | +0 | open | — | 06-24 20:41 |
| nicolas sarkozy in jail by march 31 | 51 | $10.9K | 9,576 | 1,489 | +8,087 | open | — | 03-31 18:18 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | 40 | $10.9K | 8,945 | 2,629 | +6,315 | open | — | 05-29 19:34 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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