Realized P&L
+$1.09K
Unrealized P&L
+$51
Hit rate
88.9%
Resolved
2,070
Trades
7,621
lifetime
Volume
$110.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$6.53K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-06
last 10-27 06:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 120 days
Categories
Crypto
36% 30% +$148
Other
31% 88% -$9
Politics
14% 94% -$242
Sports
14% 62% +$1,157
Tech
6% 100% +$31
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +430 $406 94¢ $404 -$2 10-25 22:01
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +355 $303 92¢ $325 +$22 09-15 21:54
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +326 $316 97¢ $316 $0 10-16 21:24
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No +325 $291 92¢ $297 +$6 09-16 12:00
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +308 $286 96¢ $294 +$8 10-10 03:05
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +294 $283 97¢ $285 +$2 10-20 05:53
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +287 $278 98¢ $281 +$4 09-30 02:37
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes +294 $281 96¢ $281 +$0 10-14 12:32
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No +289 $274 96¢ $278 +$4 10-05 17:40
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +283 $274 96¢ $272 -$1 10-09 08:26
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +267 $252 96¢ $257 +$5 10-20 12:58
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +352 $327 72¢ $255 -$72 09-19 00:43
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No +262 $240 97¢ $255 +$14 10-05 18:03
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? No +257 $245 96¢ $247 +$1 10-23 08:02
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No +230 $227 100¢ $229 +$2 10-25 21:30
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +242 $216 92¢ $224 +$7 07-10 03:35
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes +230 $218 96¢ $220 +$2 10-25 01:29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +218 $205 94¢ $204 -$1 10-26 17:13
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +211 $201 97¢ $203 +$3 10-17 16:30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +188 $186 96¢ $181 -$5 09-20 04:43
will anthropics valuation hit low 700b by december 31 928 No +172 $163 96¢ $166 +$2 07-08 19:19
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No +170 $160 96¢ $163 +$3 09-05 03:54
Trump out as President before 2027? No +168 $154 96¢ $161 +$7 10-25 12:58
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +129 $121 97¢ $125 +$4 07-09 12:52
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +126 $121 98¢ $124 +$2 10-25 18:24
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +123 $122 100¢ $123 +$0 10-19 19:33
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No +108 $81 94¢ $101 +$20 08-12 17:37
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +95 $85 97¢ $93 +$8 10-27 06:17
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +90 $87 97¢ $87 $0 10-26 17:37
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No +84 $78 98¢ $82 +$4 10-13 18:17