Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,493,810
$98,639 in 24h
Trades
32,999
Unique wallets
6,036
Liquidity
$69,629
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-06-30
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-20 23:19
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.2¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $137.9K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $1.33M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 78 | $1.1K | $491.5K | $490.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 102 | $3.4K | $263.3K | $259.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 1,284 | $2.5K | $192.4K | $189.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4,571 | $4.4K | $373.6K | $369.2K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 10 | $840 | $137.1K | $136.2K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 49 | $3.2K | $143.2K | $140.0K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 47 | $70 | $62.0K | $61.9K |
| Median | 614 | $324 | $58.7K | $58.4K |
| Below median | 377 | $145 | $58.5K | $58.4K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 44 | $283 | $10.5K | $10.2K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 24 | $79 | $6.0K | $5.9K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 16 | $94 | $30.5K | $30.4K |
| unranked | 4,854 | $6.3K | $814.4K | $808.1K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +91,248 | $450 | $454 | 185 | 06-15 14:40 |
| Flashy-Label 0xed10…d2e5 | No | +85,975 | $84,780 | $84,780 | 61 | 06-18 15:00 |
| Thin-Corporatism 0xa4f1…2417 | Yes | +77,342 | $1,175 | $1,175 | 30 | 06-05 19:13 |
| Ultimate-Execution 0x16e2…5f01 | Yes | +70,975 | $476 | $476 | 5 | 06-16 15:29 |
| Whirlwind-Mob 0xa8b2…9a39 | No | +70,816 | $70,276 | $70,276 | 235 | 06-14 04:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf51…e63c | Yes | +65,038 | $1,339 | $1,339 | 3 | 06-07 01:36 |
| Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | +62,217 | $61,779 | $61,779 | 198 | 06-20 23:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xef72…906b | Yes | +42,897 | $210 | $210 | 107 | 06-15 14:41 |
| Conventional-Sesame 0x184e…cf96 | No | +33,255 | $32,843 | $32,843 | 4 | 06-06 21:34 |
| Blind-Rite 0x88ed…6cfb | No | +25,262 | $25,136 | $25,136 | 92 | 06-15 14:42 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +20,000 | $19,821 | $26,025 | 11 | 06-18 17:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc26…e765 | Yes | +18,966 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 06-10 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb4e…e956 | Yes | +18,393 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-07 12:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x6666…db92 | No | +17,746 | $17,588 | $17,588 | 60 | 06-09 06:54 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +14,455 | $14,152 | $25,889 | 103 | 06-07 01:36 |
| Helpless-Vanity-Batting 0xefd9…14d6 | Yes | +14,181 | $100 | $100 | 2 | 06-08 22:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | +13,307 | $12,662 | $133,516 | 259 | 06-20 23:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x108f…7937 | Yes | +11,295 | $81 | $81 | 19 | 06-10 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x493a…ffd3 | Yes | +10,596 | $53 | $53 | 2 | 06-16 21:12 |
| Unsteady-Porter 0x6aad…9cb9 | Yes | +10,000 | $80 | $80 | 1 | 06-07 22:26 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +10,000 | $9,900 | $19,820 | 47 | 06-01 02:59 |
| Wavy-Bog 0x96a7…9e8d | Yes | +9,000 | $112 | $228 | 58 | 06-16 06:13 |
| Rude-Professional 0xdf5f…a1e3 | No | +8,754 | $8,715 | $17,296 | 14 | 06-18 23:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x2fd9…1c31 | Yes | +8,461 | $9 | $433 | 268 | 06-17 00:59 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +6,344 | $-102 | $5,832 | 1,020 | 06-16 15:29 |
| Beneficial-Welcome 0x7144…6624 | Yes | +6,253 | $8 | $207 | 142 | 06-17 20:06 |
| Vital-Browser 0xe749…f771 | No | +5,979 | $5,913 | $5,913 | 1 | 06-05 22:38 |
| Keen-Spectacles 0x9fb7…cf03 | Yes | +5,519 | $40 | $40 | 2 | 06-17 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xcb1b…69f2 | No | +5,418 | $5,358 | $5,358 | 1 | 06-07 05:05 |
| Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | +5,317 | $5,204 | $39,090 | 159 | 06-20 13:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc00…0be0 | No | +5,075 | $5,044 | $5,044 | 1 | 06-16 21:12 |
| Spanish-Priority 0x4004…c40b | No | +5,000 | $4,940 | $4,940 | 1 | 06-05 16:43 |
| Both-Correspondence 0x6ae1…1e7e | No | +4,926 | $4,896 | $4,896 | 1 | 06-13 05:49 |
| Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae | Yes | +3,067 | $39 | $358 | 190 | 06-14 04:34 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +3,062 | $29 | $119 | 70 | 06-06 23:09 |
| Insignificant-Dollop 0x7fd0…19f2 | No | +2,800 | $2,783 | $2,783 | 2 | 06-18 11:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x831f…827f | Yes | +2,743 | $27 | $27 | 21 | 05-29 03:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x076b…dbfa | No | +2,700 | $2,673 | $2,673 | 1 | 06-05 23:39 |
| Determined-Emanate 0xa53e…93e6 | Yes | +2,283 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 06-06 12:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa2a…e051 | Yes | +2,266 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-06 18:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ee7…ce15 | No | +2,222 | $2,206 | $2,206 | 3 | 06-16 15:47 |
| Cloudy-Winter 0x5ea0…791a | No | +2,031 | $2,015 | $2,015 | 3 | 05-31 21:40 |
| Roasted-Freon 0xab27…ab66 | No | +2,008 | $2,001 | $4,389 | 4 | 06-19 14:47 |
| Striped-Harbor 0x7a06…9b0d | Yes | +1,912 | $39 | $39 | 10 | 06-06 22:50 |
| Grown-Cclamp 0x256c…693b | No | +1,903 | $1,886 | $1,886 | 1 | 06-06 04:15 |
| Rundown-Sociology 0x0e55…044e | No | +1,759 | $1,743 | $1,743 | 2 | 05-30 07:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b10…87c8 | Yes | +1,652 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-01 17:51 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +1,582 | $13 | $25 | 4 | 06-07 04:41 |
| Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | +1,570 | $1,555 | $2,200 | 37 | 06-16 15:25 |
| Questionable-Bafflement 0x55b7…3775 | No | +1,550 | $1,544 | $1,544 | 2 | 06-18 15:18 |
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +1,375 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 06-07 18:34 |
| Double-Rutabaga 0xea96…2fb8 | No | +1,353 | $1,330 | $1,938 | 2 | 06-05 17:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1a0…2746 | Yes | +1,329 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-09 05:31 |
| Growling-Doorway 0x7daf…3b90 | Yes | +1,268 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-06 21:26 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 23:19:44 | Waterlogged-Snob 0x471b…56d6 | No | BUY | 715 | 100¢ | $712 | 0x6022ae… |
| 06-20 23:19:44 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 715 | 100¢ | $712 | 0x6022ae… |
| 06-20 23:17:44 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 53 | 100¢ | $53 | 0x0d1915… |
| 06-20 23:17:44 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 53 | 100¢ | $53 | 0x0d1915… |
| 06-20 23:17:14 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 53 | 100¢ | $53 | 0x72540a… |
| 06-20 23:17:14 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | BUY | 53 | 100¢ | $53 | 0x72540a… |
| 06-20 23:09:44 | (anonymous) 0x47ff…0a70 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x4cf3e1… |
| 06-20 23:09:44 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x4cf3e1… |
| 06-20 23:02:05 | (anonymous) 0x9cd6…cc75 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x1ca64b… |
| 06-20 23:02:05 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x1ca64b… |
| 06-20 23:00:59 | (anonymous) 0x47ff…0a70 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xaa51f9… |
| 06-20 23:00:59 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xaa51f9… |
| 06-20 22:47:35 | Tragic-Assertion 0xf68c…2a9d | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x74eef5… |
| 06-20 22:47:35 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x74eef5… |
| 06-20 22:32:34 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0x74d8fa… |
| 06-20 22:32:34 | (anonymous) 0x9cd6…cc75 | No | BUY | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0x74d8fa… |
| 06-20 22:21:41 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x4fce9b… |
| 06-20 22:21:41 | (anonymous) 0xe17a…0a38 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x4fce9b… |
| 06-20 22:16:35 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x59475b… |
| 06-20 22:16:35 | Tragic-Assertion 0xf68c…2a9d | No | BUY | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x59475b… |
| 06-20 22:01:55 | (anonymous) 0xe17a…0a38 | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x503ad3… |
| 06-20 22:01:55 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x503ad3… |
| 06-20 21:41:14 | Lonely-Jury 0xde4d…6591 | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x6a6e48… |
| 06-20 21:41:14 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x6a6e48… |
| 06-20 21:15:26 | (anonymous) 0xe105…f239 | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xd48498… |
| 06-20 21:15:26 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xd48498… |
| 06-20 19:54:10 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x2755c8… |
| 06-20 19:54:10 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x2755c8… |
| 06-20 19:49:22 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x69ba46… |
| 06-20 19:49:22 | (anonymous) 0x6a07…2952 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x69ba46… |
| 06-20 19:48:20 | (anonymous) 0xf4c0…f9b2 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x49e014… |
| 06-20 19:48:20 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x49e014… |
| 06-20 19:47:11 | (anonymous) 0xf4c0…f9b2 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x774f31… |
| 06-20 19:47:11 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x774f31… |
| 06-20 19:42:47 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0xdfbea9… |
| 06-20 19:42:47 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0xdfbea9… |
| 06-20 19:42:05 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xa11afc… |
| 06-20 19:42:05 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xa11afc… |
| 06-20 19:40:25 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 220 | 100¢ | $219 | 0x8edb60… |
| 06-20 19:40:25 | (anonymous) 0x909a…93ea | No | SELL | 220 | 100¢ | $219 | 0x8edb60… |
| 06-20 19:14:55 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xaf876e… |
| 06-20 19:14:55 | (anonymous) 0xf4c0…f9b2 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xaf876e… |
| 06-20 18:53:13 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x2c356d… |
| 06-20 18:53:13 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x2c356d… |
| 06-20 18:37:35 | (anonymous) 0x4229…dbaf | No | SELL | 1,958 | 100¢ | $1,948 | 0xd9d049… |
| 06-20 18:37:35 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1,958 | 100¢ | $1,948 | 0xd9d049… |
| 06-20 18:30:49 | Slight-Guinea 0xd39c…8d35 | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x0ff200… |
| 06-20 18:30:49 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x0ff200… |
| 06-20 18:30:17 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0xf365f8… |
| 06-20 18:30:17 | Slight-Guinea 0xd39c…8d35 | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0xf365f8… |
| 06-20 18:22:53 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1,008 | 100¢ | $1,003 | 0x330678… |
| 06-20 18:22:53 | (anonymous) 0x4229…dbaf | No | SELL | 1,008 | 100¢ | $1,003 | 0x330678… |
| 06-20 18:19:34 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xf6e774… |
| 06-20 18:19:34 | (anonymous) 0x7449…c05e | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xf6e774… |
| 06-20 18:06:01 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x9f4cdf… |
| 06-20 18:06:01 | Damaged-Buyer 0xfb9c…383e | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x9f4cdf… |
| 06-20 18:05:59 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 4,188 | 100¢ | $4,167 | 0x167fd2… |
| 06-20 18:05:59 | Unwieldy-Stamp 0x506b…b0fe | No | SELL | 4,188 | 100¢ | $4,167 | 0x167fd2… |
| 06-20 17:54:08 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x10aacd… |
| 06-20 17:54:08 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x10aacd… |
| 06-20 17:54:04 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xb3d770… |
| 06-20 17:54:04 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xb3d770… |
| 06-20 17:46:43 | (anonymous) 0x4229…dbaf | No | SELL | 61 | 99¢ | $60 | 0x95234f… |
| 06-20 17:46:43 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 61 | 99¢ | $60 | 0x95234f… |
| 06-20 17:35:34 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x42efc6… |
| 06-20 17:35:34 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x42efc6… |
| 06-20 17:34:17 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x61f20f… |
| 06-20 17:34:17 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | SELL | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x61f20f… |
| 06-20 17:31:59 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 50 | 100¢ | $50 | 0x7027b8… |
| 06-20 17:31:59 | (anonymous) 0x4229…dbaf | No | SELL | 50 | 100¢ | $50 | 0x7027b8… |
| 06-20 17:08:49 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xcf81ab… |
| 06-20 17:08:49 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xcf81ab… |
| 06-20 17:04:32 | (anonymous) 0x97c6…6587 | No | SELL | 84 | 100¢ | $83 | 0x3a8816… |
| 06-20 17:04:32 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 84 | 100¢ | $83 | 0x3a8816… |
| 06-20 17:03:58 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 84 | 100¢ | $83 | 0x822a48… |
| 06-20 17:03:58 | (anonymous) 0x97c6…6587 | No | BUY | 84 | 100¢ | $83 | 0x822a48… |
| 06-20 16:59:23 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x385773… |
| 06-20 16:59:23 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x385773… |
| 06-20 16:48:32 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0xe70516… |
| 06-20 16:48:32 | Little-Zone 0xbab3…77ce | No | BUY | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0xe70516… |
| 06-20 16:39:46 | (anonymous) 0xbbbc…529c | No | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x1071a9… |
| 06-20 16:39:46 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x1071a9… |
| 06-20 16:14:13 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x2e85b7… |
| 06-20 16:14:13 | (anonymous) 0xa158…1c1b | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x2e85b7… |
| 06-20 15:59:49 | Overcooked-Surround 0x26fc…ef25 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x2b35c4… |
| 06-20 15:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x2b35c4… |
| 06-20 15:27:59 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0x4c73e1… |
| 06-20 15:27:59 | (anonymous) 0x1219…da88 | No | BUY | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0x4c73e1… |
| 06-20 15:23:50 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 99¢ | $0 | 0x6760bd… |
| 06-20 15:23:50 | (anonymous) 0x3317…76b4 | No | SELL | 0 | 99¢ | $0 | 0x6760bd… |
| 06-20 15:11:25 | Which-Web 0xf78f…73be | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xde3f6d… |
| 06-20 15:11:25 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xde3f6d… |
| 06-20 14:57:19 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x641595… |
| 06-20 14:57:19 | Private-Dispatch 0xc975…c8d7 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x641595… |
| 06-20 14:53:10 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 19 | 100¢ | $19 | 0x094e6c… |
| 06-20 14:53:10 | (anonymous) 0x05b4…e985 | No | BUY | 19 | 100¢ | $19 | 0x094e6c… |
| 06-20 14:51:47 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xa10768… |
| 06-20 14:51:47 | (anonymous) 0x05b4…e985 | No | SELL | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xa10768… |
| 06-20 14:49:22 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x6791a8… |
| 06-20 14:49:22 | Silky-Hatchet 0xb795…4e95 | No | SELL | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x6791a8… |