Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,533,027
$98,639 in 24h
Trades
33,335
Unique wallets
6,094
Liquidity
$69,629
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-06-30
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-21 11:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.2¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $137.9K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $1.35M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 78 | $1.1K | $493.1K | $492.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 103 | $3.4K | $284.8K | $281.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 1,300 | $2.5K | $187.8K | $185.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4,613 | $4.4K | $375.0K | $370.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 10 | $840 | $137.1K | $136.2K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 48 | $3.2K | $143.2K | $140.0K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 42 | $67 | $60.8K | $60.8K |
| Median | 635 | $328 | $63.0K | $62.7K |
| Below median | 384 | $145 | $59.1K | $58.9K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 38 | $266 | $10.0K | $9.7K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 28 | $96 | $6.3K | $6.2K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 14 | $94 | $30.2K | $30.1K |
| unranked | 4,895 | $6.3K | $831.1K | $824.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +91,248 | $450 | $454 | 185 | 06-15 14:40 |
| Flashy-Label 0xed10…d2e5 | No | +85,975 | $84,780 | $84,780 | 61 | 06-18 15:00 |
| Thin-Corporatism 0xa4f1…2417 | Yes | +77,342 | $1,175 | $1,175 | 30 | 06-05 19:13 |
| Ultimate-Execution 0x16e2…5f01 | Yes | +70,975 | $476 | $476 | 5 | 06-16 15:29 |
| Whirlwind-Mob 0xa8b2…9a39 | No | +70,816 | $70,276 | $70,276 | 235 | 06-14 04:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf51…e63c | Yes | +65,038 | $1,339 | $1,339 | 3 | 06-07 01:36 |
| Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | +63,876 | $63,430 | $63,430 | 241 | 06-21 11:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xef72…906b | Yes | +42,897 | $210 | $210 | 107 | 06-15 14:41 |
| Conventional-Sesame 0x184e…cf96 | No | +33,255 | $32,843 | $32,843 | 4 | 06-06 21:34 |
| Blind-Rite 0x88ed…6cfb | No | +25,262 | $25,136 | $25,136 | 92 | 06-15 14:42 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +20,000 | $19,821 | $26,025 | 11 | 06-18 17:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc26…e765 | Yes | +18,966 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 06-10 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb4e…e956 | Yes | +18,393 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-07 12:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x6666…db92 | No | +17,746 | $17,588 | $17,588 | 60 | 06-09 06:54 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +14,455 | $14,152 | $25,889 | 103 | 06-07 01:36 |
| Helpless-Vanity-Batting 0xefd9…14d6 | Yes | +14,181 | $100 | $100 | 2 | 06-08 22:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x108f…7937 | Yes | +11,295 | $81 | $81 | 19 | 06-10 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x112e…a3f6 | No | +10,799 | $10,756 | $10,756 | 2 | 06-21 09:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x493a…ffd3 | Yes | +10,596 | $53 | $53 | 2 | 06-16 21:12 |
| Unsteady-Porter 0x6aad…9cb9 | Yes | +10,000 | $80 | $80 | 1 | 06-07 22:26 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +10,000 | $9,900 | $19,820 | 47 | 06-01 02:59 |
| Wavy-Bog 0x96a7…9e8d | Yes | +9,000 | $112 | $228 | 58 | 06-16 06:13 |
| Rude-Professional 0xdf5f…a1e3 | No | +8,754 | $8,715 | $17,296 | 14 | 06-18 23:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x2fd9…1c31 | Yes | +8,461 | $9 | $433 | 268 | 06-17 00:59 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +6,344 | $-102 | $5,832 | 1,020 | 06-16 15:29 |
| Beneficial-Welcome 0x7144…6624 | Yes | +6,253 | $8 | $207 | 142 | 06-17 20:06 |
| Vital-Browser 0xe749…f771 | No | +5,979 | $5,913 | $5,913 | 1 | 06-05 22:38 |
| Keen-Spectacles 0x9fb7…cf03 | Yes | +5,519 | $40 | $40 | 2 | 06-17 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xcb1b…69f2 | No | +5,418 | $5,358 | $5,358 | 1 | 06-07 05:05 |
| Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | +5,317 | $5,204 | $39,090 | 159 | 06-20 13:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc00…0be0 | No | +5,075 | $5,044 | $5,044 | 1 | 06-16 21:12 |
| Spanish-Priority 0x4004…c40b | No | +5,000 | $4,940 | $4,940 | 1 | 06-05 16:43 |
| Both-Correspondence 0x6ae1…1e7e | No | +4,926 | $4,896 | $4,896 | 1 | 06-13 05:49 |
| Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae | Yes | +3,067 | $39 | $358 | 190 | 06-14 04:34 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +3,062 | $29 | $119 | 70 | 06-06 23:09 |
| Insignificant-Dollop 0x7fd0…19f2 | No | +2,800 | $2,783 | $2,783 | 2 | 06-18 11:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x831f…827f | Yes | +2,743 | $27 | $27 | 21 | 05-29 03:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x076b…dbfa | No | +2,700 | $2,673 | $2,673 | 1 | 06-05 23:39 |
| Determined-Emanate 0xa53e…93e6 | Yes | +2,283 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 06-06 12:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa2a…e051 | Yes | +2,266 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-06 18:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ee7…ce15 | No | +2,222 | $2,206 | $2,206 | 3 | 06-16 15:47 |
| Cloudy-Winter 0x5ea0…791a | No | +2,031 | $2,015 | $2,015 | 3 | 05-31 21:40 |
| Roasted-Freon 0xab27…ab66 | No | +2,008 | $2,001 | $4,389 | 4 | 06-19 14:47 |
| Striped-Harbor 0x7a06…9b0d | Yes | +1,912 | $39 | $39 | 10 | 06-06 22:50 |
| Grown-Cclamp 0x256c…693b | No | +1,903 | $1,886 | $1,886 | 1 | 06-06 04:15 |
| Rundown-Sociology 0x0e55…044e | No | +1,759 | $1,743 | $1,743 | 2 | 05-30 07:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b10…87c8 | Yes | +1,652 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-01 17:51 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +1,582 | $13 | $25 | 4 | 06-07 04:41 |
| Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | +1,570 | $1,555 | $2,200 | 37 | 06-16 15:25 |
| Questionable-Bafflement 0x55b7…3775 | No | +1,550 | $1,544 | $1,544 | 2 | 06-18 15:18 |
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +1,375 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 06-07 18:34 |
| Double-Rutabaga 0xea96…2fb8 | No | +1,353 | $1,330 | $1,938 | 2 | 06-05 17:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1a0…2746 | Yes | +1,329 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-09 05:31 |
| Growling-Doorway 0x7daf…3b90 | Yes | +1,268 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-06 21:26 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 11:21:28 | (anonymous) 0x1e63…7267 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xbc10eb… |
| 06-21 11:21:28 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xbc10eb… |
| 06-21 11:16:37 | (anonymous) 0xb330…01e8 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x0fe7f9… |
| 06-21 11:16:37 | Simplistic-Fratricide 0xe970…1429 | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x0fe7f9… |
| 06-21 10:58:43 | (anonymous) 0xb330…01e8 | No | SELL | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x5d89db… |
| 06-21 10:58:43 | Upset-Aggradation 0x5d66…42b5 | No | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x5d89db… |
| 06-21 10:53:14 | (anonymous) 0xb330…01e8 | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x74ce9d… |
| 06-21 10:53:14 | Upset-Aggradation 0x5d66…42b5 | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x74ce9d… |
| 06-21 10:49:53 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1,085 | 100¢ | $1,080 | 0x14ff22… |
| 06-21 10:49:53 | (anonymous) 0x7449…c05e | No | SELL | 1,085 | 100¢ | $1,080 | 0x14ff22… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x035d…d381 | No | SELL | 43 | 100¢ | $43 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x0a16…b323 | No | SELL | 43 | 100¢ | $43 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x1e6c…76fb | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x3a89…50e3 | No | SELL | 35 | 100¢ | $35 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xd5a6…88f4 | No | SELL | 38 | 100¢ | $38 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xe129…ca03 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xdd1b…435f | No | SELL | 44 | 100¢ | $44 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xe157…1624 | No | SELL | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xc51b…7c30 | No | SELL | 44 | 100¢ | $44 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x7449…c05e | No | BUY | 1,085 | 100¢ | $1,081 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xfd95…0251 | No | SELL | 36 | 100¢ | $36 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x06e7…8535 | No | SELL | 42 | 100¢ | $42 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x7cf6…1ba8 | No | SELL | 42 | 100¢ | $42 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xb7b6…04e1 | No | SELL | 35 | 100¢ | $35 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xd30f…6a4b | No | SELL | 43 | 100¢ | $43 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x3f93…6394 | No | SELL | 43 | 100¢ | $43 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xe81a…a540 | No | SELL | 33 | 100¢ | $33 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x1454…b858 | No | SELL | 44 | 100¢ | $44 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xb330…01e8 | No | SELL | 448 | 100¢ | $446 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xb7ac…f13a | No | SELL | 55 | 100¢ | $55 | 0xaf7a07… |
| 06-21 10:49:13 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x39f31d… |
| 06-21 10:49:13 | (anonymous) 0x6a07…2952 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x39f31d… |
| 06-21 10:47:08 | (anonymous) 0x3358…6951 | No | BUY | 50 | 100¢ | $50 | 0x5d8d1b… |
| 06-21 10:47:08 | (anonymous) 0xe129…ca03 | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $44 | 0x5d8d1b… |
| 06-21 10:47:08 | (anonymous) 0xe48d…841b | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x5d8d1b… |
| 06-21 10:43:56 | (anonymous) 0xe48d…841b | No | SELL | 27 | 100¢ | $26 | 0xa57c70… |
| 06-21 10:43:56 | (anonymous) 0xe157…1624 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0xa57c70… |
| 06-21 10:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x1946…8bde | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0xa57c70… |
| 06-21 10:41:32 | (anonymous) 0x2df6…6b16 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x2c1731… |
| 06-21 10:41:32 | (anonymous) 0x88e0…abe6 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x2c1731… |
| 06-21 10:41:32 | (anonymous) 0xe157…1624 | No | SELL | 18 | 100¢ | $18 | 0x2c1731… |
| 06-21 10:11:37 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x4daac3… |
| 06-21 10:11:37 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x4daac3… |
| 06-21 10:00:52 | Mountainous-Proposal 0xd69e…9ebb | No | BUY | 25 | 100¢ | $25 | 0x08c236… |
| 06-21 10:00:52 | (anonymous) 0x88e0…abe6 | No | SELL | 25 | 100¢ | $25 | 0x08c236… |
| 06-21 09:58:16 | (anonymous) 0xe5ee…6557 | No | SELL | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0xf7a400… |
| 06-21 09:58:16 | (anonymous) 0x178c…36eb | No | BUY | 28 | 100¢ | $28 | 0xf7a400… |
| 06-21 09:58:16 | (anonymous) 0x88e0…abe6 | No | SELL | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0xf7a400… |
| 06-21 09:56:41 | (anonymous) 0x71cb…0b36 | No | BUY | 36 | 100¢ | $36 | 0x9dc2dd… |
| 06-21 09:56:41 | (anonymous) 0x20ed…12f4 | No | SELL | 18 | 100¢ | $18 | 0x9dc2dd… |
| 06-21 09:56:41 | (anonymous) 0xe5ee…6557 | No | SELL | 18 | 100¢ | $18 | 0x9dc2dd… |
| 06-21 09:54:35 | (anonymous) 0xb8cd…0f1e | No | SELL | 14 | 100¢ | $14 | 0x11f82b… |
| 06-21 09:54:35 | (anonymous) 0x20ed…12f4 | No | SELL | 16 | 100¢ | $16 | 0x11f82b… |
| 06-21 09:54:35 | (anonymous) 0xf822…49a7 | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0x11f82b… |
| 06-21 09:22:32 | (anonymous) 0x5bcf…06e0 | No | SELL | 27 | 100¢ | $27 | 0x86cfce… |
| 06-21 09:22:32 | (anonymous) 0xa4a0…bbfa | No | SELL | 35 | 100¢ | $35 | 0x86cfce… |
| 06-21 09:22:32 | Sweltering-Remark 0x1eef…31fe | No | BUY | 135 | 100¢ | $134 | 0x86cfce… |
| 06-21 09:22:32 | (anonymous) 0xb8cd…0f1e | No | SELL | 32 | 100¢ | $32 | 0x86cfce… |
| 06-21 09:22:32 | (anonymous) 0x1fd9…f443 | No | SELL | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x86cfce… |
| 06-21 09:19:37 | (anonymous) 0xfbe9…393f | No | BUY | 78 | 100¢ | $78 | 0x5a2df7… |
| 06-21 09:19:37 | (anonymous) 0x5bcf…06e0 | No | SELL | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0x5a2df7… |
| 06-21 09:19:37 | (anonymous) 0x3c44…b40e | No | SELL | 23 | 100¢ | $23 | 0x5a2df7… |
| 06-21 09:19:37 | (anonymous) 0x53df…94ae | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0x5a2df7… |
| 06-21 09:15:16 | (anonymous) 0x4f37…302f | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0xceb169… |
| 06-21 09:15:16 | (anonymous) 0xd92f…af4b | No | BUY | 62 | 100¢ | $62 | 0xceb169… |
| 06-21 09:15:16 | (anonymous) 0x3c44…b40e | No | SELL | 17 | 100¢ | $17 | 0xceb169… |
| 06-21 09:13:25 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xc121b3… |
| 06-21 09:13:25 | (anonymous) 0x9a8b…e0da | No | SELL | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xc121b3… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x20b6…4ac4 | No | SELL | 44 | 100¢ | $44 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x8596…2587 | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x0d80…11de | No | SELL | 37 | 100¢ | $37 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xca1d…e34f | No | SELL | 44 | 100¢ | $44 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…53dd | No | SELL | 48 | 100¢ | $48 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xcf94…060f | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x2935…6230 | No | SELL | 46 | 100¢ | $46 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x0ea6…8adc | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x60a8…f114 | No | SELL | 38 | 100¢ | $38 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xb820…fb6c | No | SELL | 33 | 100¢ | $33 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xb8f4…76ed | No | SELL | 42 | 100¢ | $42 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xfca1…c48b | No | SELL | 46 | 100¢ | $46 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x0b7c…d1a2 | No | SELL | 35 | 100¢ | $35 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xa125…75a2 | No | SELL | 47 | 100¢ | $47 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | General-Composer 0xe55f…11a4 | No | SELL | 42 | 100¢ | $42 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x8894…d12e | No | SELL | 38 | 100¢ | $38 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x86b1…cc22 | No | SELL | 46 | 100¢ | $46 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x4ef8…c262 | No | SELL | 36 | 100¢ | $36 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x458c…ba04 | No | SELL | 39 | 100¢ | $39 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x6f2c…e130 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xb768…9c82 | No | SELL | 36 | 100¢ | $36 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xa6c3…0b26 | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x112e…a3f6 | No | BUY | 1,467 | 100¢ | $1,461 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x0837…9178 | No | SELL | 42 | 100¢ | $42 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xb559…54fa | No | SELL | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xea84…3a54 | No | SELL | 36 | 100¢ | $36 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0xc2b2…6fe1 | No | SELL | 47 | 100¢ | $47 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x7133…3ee4 | No | SELL | 42 | 100¢ | $42 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x1e6c…76fb | No | SELL | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x6db2…7802 | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0xef14db… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | Austere-Truth 0xf983…651c | No | SELL | 24 | 100¢ | $24 | 0x4a4d1f… |
| 06-21 09:04:02 | (anonymous) 0x1437…e4dc | No | SELL | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0x4a4d1f… |