Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,504,746
$98,639 in 24h
Trades
33,101
Unique wallets
6,059
Liquidity
$69,629
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-06-30
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-21 04:30
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.2¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $137.9K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $1.34M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 78 | $1.1K | $491.6K | $490.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 103 | $3.4K | $284.8K | $281.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 1,295 | $2.5K | $175.8K | $173.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4,583 | $4.4K | $374.1K | $369.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 10 | $840 | $137.1K | $136.2K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 52 | $3.2K | $143.7K | $140.5K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 54 | $70 | $63.5K | $63.4K |
| Median | 620 | $326 | $59.7K | $59.4K |
| Below median | 382 | $192 | $59.2K | $59.0K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 35 | $233 | $9.8K | $9.5K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 24 | $79 | $6.0K | $5.9K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 15 | $94 | $30.5K | $30.4K |
| unranked | 4,867 | $6.3K | $816.9K | $810.6K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +91,248 | $450 | $454 | 185 | 06-15 14:40 |
| Flashy-Label 0xed10…d2e5 | No | +85,975 | $84,780 | $84,780 | 61 | 06-18 15:00 |
| Thin-Corporatism 0xa4f1…2417 | Yes | +77,342 | $1,175 | $1,175 | 30 | 06-05 19:13 |
| Ultimate-Execution 0x16e2…5f01 | Yes | +70,975 | $476 | $476 | 5 | 06-16 15:29 |
| Whirlwind-Mob 0xa8b2…9a39 | No | +70,816 | $70,276 | $70,276 | 235 | 06-14 04:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf51…e63c | Yes | +65,038 | $1,339 | $1,339 | 3 | 06-07 01:36 |
| Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | +62,303 | $61,866 | $61,866 | 217 | 06-21 04:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xef72…906b | Yes | +42,897 | $210 | $210 | 107 | 06-15 14:41 |
| Conventional-Sesame 0x184e…cf96 | No | +33,255 | $32,843 | $32,843 | 4 | 06-06 21:34 |
| Blind-Rite 0x88ed…6cfb | No | +25,262 | $25,136 | $25,136 | 92 | 06-15 14:42 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +20,000 | $19,821 | $26,025 | 11 | 06-18 17:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc26…e765 | Yes | +18,966 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 06-10 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb4e…e956 | Yes | +18,393 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-07 12:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x6666…db92 | No | +17,746 | $17,588 | $17,588 | 60 | 06-09 06:54 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +14,455 | $14,152 | $25,889 | 103 | 06-07 01:36 |
| Helpless-Vanity-Batting 0xefd9…14d6 | Yes | +14,181 | $100 | $100 | 2 | 06-08 22:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x108f…7937 | Yes | +11,295 | $81 | $81 | 19 | 06-10 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x493a…ffd3 | Yes | +10,596 | $53 | $53 | 2 | 06-16 21:12 |
| Unsteady-Porter 0x6aad…9cb9 | Yes | +10,000 | $80 | $80 | 1 | 06-07 22:26 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +10,000 | $9,900 | $19,820 | 47 | 06-01 02:59 |
| Wavy-Bog 0x96a7…9e8d | Yes | +9,000 | $112 | $228 | 58 | 06-16 06:13 |
| Rude-Professional 0xdf5f…a1e3 | No | +8,754 | $8,715 | $17,296 | 14 | 06-18 23:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x2fd9…1c31 | Yes | +8,461 | $9 | $433 | 268 | 06-17 00:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | +7,904 | $7,280 | $138,897 | 291 | 06-21 04:30 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +6,344 | $-102 | $5,832 | 1,020 | 06-16 15:29 |
| Beneficial-Welcome 0x7144…6624 | Yes | +6,253 | $8 | $207 | 142 | 06-17 20:06 |
| Vital-Browser 0xe749…f771 | No | +5,979 | $5,913 | $5,913 | 1 | 06-05 22:38 |
| Keen-Spectacles 0x9fb7…cf03 | Yes | +5,519 | $40 | $40 | 2 | 06-17 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xcb1b…69f2 | No | +5,418 | $5,358 | $5,358 | 1 | 06-07 05:05 |
| Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | +5,317 | $5,204 | $39,090 | 159 | 06-20 13:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc00…0be0 | No | +5,075 | $5,044 | $5,044 | 1 | 06-16 21:12 |
| Spanish-Priority 0x4004…c40b | No | +5,000 | $4,940 | $4,940 | 1 | 06-05 16:43 |
| Both-Correspondence 0x6ae1…1e7e | No | +4,926 | $4,896 | $4,896 | 1 | 06-13 05:49 |
| Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae | Yes | +3,067 | $39 | $358 | 190 | 06-14 04:34 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +3,062 | $29 | $119 | 70 | 06-06 23:09 |
| Insignificant-Dollop 0x7fd0…19f2 | No | +2,800 | $2,783 | $2,783 | 2 | 06-18 11:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x831f…827f | Yes | +2,743 | $27 | $27 | 21 | 05-29 03:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x076b…dbfa | No | +2,700 | $2,673 | $2,673 | 1 | 06-05 23:39 |
| Determined-Emanate 0xa53e…93e6 | Yes | +2,283 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 06-06 12:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa2a…e051 | Yes | +2,266 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-06 18:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ee7…ce15 | No | +2,222 | $2,206 | $2,206 | 3 | 06-16 15:47 |
| Cloudy-Winter 0x5ea0…791a | No | +2,031 | $2,015 | $2,015 | 3 | 05-31 21:40 |
| Roasted-Freon 0xab27…ab66 | No | +2,008 | $2,001 | $4,389 | 4 | 06-19 14:47 |
| Striped-Harbor 0x7a06…9b0d | Yes | +1,912 | $39 | $39 | 10 | 06-06 22:50 |
| Grown-Cclamp 0x256c…693b | No | +1,903 | $1,886 | $1,886 | 1 | 06-06 04:15 |
| Rundown-Sociology 0x0e55…044e | No | +1,759 | $1,743 | $1,743 | 2 | 05-30 07:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b10…87c8 | Yes | +1,652 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-01 17:51 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +1,582 | $13 | $25 | 4 | 06-07 04:41 |
| Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | +1,570 | $1,555 | $2,200 | 37 | 06-16 15:25 |
| Questionable-Bafflement 0x55b7…3775 | No | +1,550 | $1,544 | $1,544 | 2 | 06-18 15:18 |
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +1,375 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 06-07 18:34 |
| Double-Rutabaga 0xea96…2fb8 | No | +1,353 | $1,330 | $1,938 | 2 | 06-05 17:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1a0…2746 | Yes | +1,329 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-09 05:31 |
| Growling-Doorway 0x7daf…3b90 | Yes | +1,268 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-06 21:26 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 04:30:25 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x3ceb36… |
| 06-21 04:30:25 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x3ceb36… |
| 06-21 04:27:52 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xa3e278… |
| 06-21 04:27:52 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xa3e278… |
| 06-21 04:26:19 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xe9eaf4… |
| 06-21 04:26:19 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xe9eaf4… |
| 06-21 04:25:35 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xef186a… |
| 06-21 04:25:35 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xef186a… |
| 06-21 04:22:58 | (anonymous) 0x72e0…0b96 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x3c1c1c… |
| 06-21 04:22:58 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x3c1c1c… |
| 06-21 04:03:38 | (anonymous) 0x7940…b26f | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xd1bda0… |
| 06-21 04:03:38 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xd1bda0… |
| 06-21 03:55:38 | (anonymous) 0xe95d…8a7f | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x1e1cfa… |
| 06-21 03:55:38 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x1e1cfa… |
| 06-21 03:48:46 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x38391f… |
| 06-21 03:48:46 | (anonymous) 0x0cd4…35ca | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x38391f… |
| 06-21 03:48:07 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xd72589… |
| 06-21 03:48:07 | (anonymous) 0xe95d…8a7f | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xd72589… |
| 06-21 03:48:05 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x393055… |
| 06-21 03:48:05 | (anonymous) 0x7940…b26f | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x393055… |
| 06-21 03:04:19 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x787d71… |
| 06-21 03:04:19 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x787d71… |
| 06-21 03:03:37 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xaf6c00… |
| 06-21 03:03:37 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xaf6c00… |
| 06-21 03:02:14 | (anonymous) 0x38ab…ab66 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x4a43ed… |
| 06-21 03:02:14 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x4a43ed… |
| 06-21 02:58:40 | Fitting-Grit 0xc080…3f16 | No | BUY | 1,004 | 100¢ | $1,000 | 0x47591d… |
| 06-21 02:58:40 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 1,004 | 100¢ | $1,000 | 0x47591d… |
| 06-21 02:28:31 | Pitiful-Spectrograph 0x1360…53b2 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x50a185… |
| 06-21 02:28:31 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x50a185… |
| 06-21 02:27:40 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x8103eb… |
| 06-21 02:27:40 | Alive-Marxism 0x57a0…f963 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x8103eb… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | Favorable-Researcher 0xf11a…54a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x54ca02… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x83ce72… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | Enlightened-Toreador 0x9f6d…5111 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x98534b… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | Good-Natured-Masonry 0x6ea5…52f7 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x83ce72… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xfaf82a… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x98534b… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x2ca864… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x54ca02… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | Zesty-Lab 0x6325…4203 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xfaf82a… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x227735… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | Early-Treatment 0x74c0…3427 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x2ca864… |
| 06-21 02:27:38 | Pitiful-Spectrograph 0x1360…53b2 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x227735… |
| 06-21 02:23:17 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 114 | 100¢ | $114 | 0xee1c4a… |
| 06-21 02:23:17 | Necessary-Exclamation 0x63ab…77a1 | No | BUY | 114 | 100¢ | $114 | 0xee1c4a… |
| 06-21 02:18:11 | Cautious-Thread 0x1f3c…8079 | No | BUY | 67 | 100¢ | $67 | 0x94dce0… |
| 06-21 02:18:11 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 67 | 100¢ | $67 | 0x94dce0… |
| 06-21 02:17:58 | (anonymous) 0x6a07…2952 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x30d835… |
| 06-21 02:17:58 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x30d835… |
| 06-21 02:10:37 | (anonymous) 0xb844…e8d5 | No | BUY | 107 | 100¢ | $107 | 0x242f69… |
| 06-21 02:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 107 | 100¢ | $107 | 0x242f69… |
| 06-21 01:47:58 | Big-Hearted-Steeple 0xb25c…6e58 | No | BUY | 147 | 100¢ | $146 | 0x50d156… |
| 06-21 01:47:58 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 147 | 100¢ | $146 | 0x50d156… |
| 06-21 01:38:37 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 52 | 100¢ | $52 | 0x6c8f24… |
| 06-21 01:38:37 | Buzzing-Playwright 0x8a2f…2d66 | No | BUY | 52 | 100¢ | $52 | 0x6c8f24… |
| 06-21 01:37:11 | (anonymous) 0x01d2…c603 | No | SELL | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x92370f… |
| 06-21 01:37:11 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x92370f… |
| 06-21 01:36:40 | (anonymous) 0x01d2…c603 | No | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x53009e… |
| 06-21 01:36:40 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x53009e… |
| 06-21 01:21:40 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x93cde2… |
| 06-21 01:21:40 | (anonymous) 0x72f2…9e0d | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x93cde2… |
| 06-21 01:13:29 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0xc4a4cf… |
| 06-21 01:13:29 | (anonymous) 0xcc79…7bc1 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0xc4a4cf… |
| 06-21 01:02:35 | (anonymous) 0x72f2…9e0d | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0xcc9e21… |
| 06-21 01:02:35 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0xcc9e21… |
| 06-21 01:01:07 | (anonymous) 0xcc79…7bc1 | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x10b4cd… |
| 06-21 01:01:07 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x10b4cd… |
| 06-21 00:46:31 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 826 | 100¢ | $823 | 0x51734c… |
| 06-21 00:46:31 | Embarrassed-Candy 0x167f…43c6 | No | BUY | 826 | 100¢ | $823 | 0x51734c… |
| 06-21 00:41:43 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0xbfcd86… |
| 06-21 00:41:43 | (anonymous) 0x0883…b197 | No | SELL | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0xbfcd86… |
| 06-21 00:34:43 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 335 | 100¢ | $334 | 0xedbd01… |
| 06-21 00:34:43 | (anonymous) 0x1fa0…0465 | No | BUY | 335 | 100¢ | $334 | 0xedbd01… |
| 06-21 00:22:22 | (anonymous) 0x227b…76f9 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xd0487d… |
| 06-21 00:22:22 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0xd0487d… |
| 06-21 00:16:46 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x028556… |
| 06-21 00:16:46 | (anonymous) 0x0883…b197 | No | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x028556… |
| 06-21 00:16:44 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x33a705… |
| 06-21 00:16:44 | Knobby-Pinstripe 0x7f20…10b3 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x33a705… |
| 06-21 00:05:55 | Motherly-Bandanna 0x0738…6dc2 | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x7b28cd… |
| 06-21 00:05:55 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x7b28cd… |
| 06-21 00:05:40 | Scary-Appetite 0xe390…06fb | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xaeb7be… |
| 06-21 00:05:40 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xaeb7be… |
| 06-21 00:00:22 | Jumpy-Odometer 0x281e…cc28 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x7249d9… |
| 06-21 00:00:22 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x7249d9… |
| 06-20 23:58:55 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x948b78… |
| 06-20 23:58:55 | Amused-Greatgrandfather 0xb5a8…545d | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x948b78… |
| 06-20 23:51:52 | (anonymous) 0x3fc1…9b85 | No | SELL | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x8edf04… |
| 06-20 23:51:52 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x8edf04… |
| 06-20 23:50:14 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 1,060 | 100¢ | $1,056 | 0xa44179… |
| 06-20 23:50:14 | Harmless-Chub 0x107b…481f | No | BUY | 1,060 | 100¢ | $1,056 | 0xa44179… |
| 06-20 23:48:59 | Majestic-Brewer 0x7a66…3011 | No | BUY | 738 | 100¢ | $735 | 0x5d72b5… |
| 06-20 23:48:59 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 738 | 100¢ | $735 | 0x5d72b5… |
| 06-20 23:47:17 | Paltry-Summit 0x3a1f…db6d | No | BUY | 894 | 100¢ | $890 | 0x4ab8e9… |
| 06-20 23:47:17 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 894 | 100¢ | $890 | 0x4ab8e9… |
| 06-20 23:45:32 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x9ee1b7… |
| 06-20 23:45:32 | Questionable-Output 0xbb21…e772 | No | SELL | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x9ee1b7… |
| 06-20 23:32:34 | (anonymous) 0x97c6…6587 | No | SELL | 0 | 99¢ | $0 | 0xef9620… |
| 06-20 23:32:34 | Rowdy-Nobody 0x6328…36a4 | No | BUY | 0 | 99¢ | $0 | 0xef9620… |