Realized P&L
+$210
Unrealized P&L
+$188
Hit rate
68.7%
Resolved
53
Trades
182,005
lifetime
Volume
$317.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$736
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 06:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 23 days
Categories
Other
46% 40% +$267
Politics
29% 43% $-90
Crypto
12% 50% $-4
Sports
11% 57% +$37
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 5517 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +620 $63 12¢ $72 +$9 06-09 11:05
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,100 $55 $72 +$16 06-09 20:50
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes -508 $-66 12¢ $-61 +$5 06-07 17:56
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,026 $-77 $-56 +$20 06-06 16:01
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes +4,253 $-46 $49 +$95 06-10 07:20
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Yes +2,100 $21 $33 +$12 06-08 13:32
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes -835 $-49 $-30 +$20 06-02 09:34
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? No +2,100 $9 $28 +$20 06-09 12:48
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? No +1,500 $26 $28 +$2 06-09 22:59
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Yes +6,100 $30 $24 $-6 06-06 08:57
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +554 $29 $24 $-4 06-08 10:50
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Yes -110 $-32 21¢ $-23 +$9 06-06 15:06
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Yes +310 $24 $22 $-3 06-09 12:39
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +3,189 $19 $21 +$2 06-10 07:20
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Yes +2,100 $23 $20 $-3 06-03 09:43
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,100 $23 $18 $-5 05-31 00:29
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Yes +177 $13 10¢ $17 +$3 06-10 04:44
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes +151 $26 10¢ $15 $-11 05-28 23:32
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No +510 $21 $15 $-6 06-08 10:20
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,547 $4 $14 +$10 06-05 20:33
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes +152 $10 $13 +$3 06-09 14:46
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? No +5,100 $14 $13 $-1 06-10 00:10
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes +510 $23 $12 $-10 05-30 23:27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes -1,100 $-33 $-10 +$23 05-28 03:41
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes +550 $14 $10 $-5 06-04 13:48
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Yes +1,485 $22 $9 $-13 05-31 06:59
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes -1,100 $-18 $-8 +$9 05-31 18:36
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Yes +1,151 $6 $7 +$1 06-01 19:51
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes +714 $9 $7 $-2 05-28 14:17
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes -55 $-4 11¢ $-6 $-2 06-05 21:11