Realized P&L
+$3.37K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.27K
Hit rate
99.8%
Resolved
53
Trades
28,846
lifetime
Volume
$50.4M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.75K
Open exposure
$501.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
50%
92%
+$785
Other
43%
91%
+$2,743
Crypto
5%
94%
$-168
Tech
1%
—
—
Sports
1%
100%
+$8
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk
• peak 1568 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | +65,611 | $65,328 | 100¢ | $65.5K | +$217 | 06-17 05:00 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +56,376 | $55,916 | 100¢ | $56.3K | +$404 | 06-15 12:18 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | No | +51,694 | $51,333 | 100¢ | $51.6K | +$309 | 06-17 06:31 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +43,099 | $42,258 | 100¢ | $43.0K | +$776 | 06-20 17:43 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +37,727 | $35,470 | 94¢ | $35.5K | +$51 | 06-13 12:03 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | -26,755 | $-25,257 | 96¢ | $-25658 | $-401 | 06-02 16:19 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | No | +19,721 | $19,603 | 100¢ | $19.7K | +$99 | 06-22 07:29 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | -22,799 | $-19,379 | 86¢ | $-19607 | $-228 | 06-18 08:15 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | No | +15,000 | $14,925 | 100¢ | $15.0K | +$60 | 06-18 15:14 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | No | +14,999 | $14,870 | 100¢ | $15.0K | +$114 | 06-12 15:16 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | +13,466 | $13,266 | 100¢ | $13.4K | +$179 | 06-11 12:07 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +13,328 | $12,033 | 94¢ | $12.5K | +$489 | 06-17 06:09 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? | No | +12,441 | $12,376 | 100¢ | $12.4K | +$52 | 06-17 06:26 | |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | +10,651 | $10,139 | 97¢ | $10.3K | +$166 | 06-15 22:45 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,000 | $8,750 | 86¢ | $8.6K | $-200 | 06-26 15:18 | |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | +8,370 | $8,373 | 100¢ | $8.4K | $-16 | 06-27 07:33 | |
| Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026? | No | +8,289 | $8,274 | 100¢ | $8.3K | +$7 | 06-25 11:28 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? | No | +8,000 | $7,974 | 100¢ | $8.0K | +$18 | 06-26 06:31 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +8,745 | $7,737 | 86¢ | $7.6K | $-173 | 06-15 16:15 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? | No | +7,000 | $6,946 | 100¢ | $7.0K | +$47 | 06-12 15:16 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | +7,000 | $6,940 | 100¢ | $7.0K | +$53 | 06-10 12:34 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? | No | +6,998 | $6,940 | 100¢ | $7.0K | +$51 | 06-16 23:31 | |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Yes | -14,042 | $-6,951 | 50¢ | $-6958 | $-7 | 06-18 13:29 | |
| Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? | No | +6,315 | $6,209 | 100¢ | $6.3K | +$93 | 06-14 12:27 | |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | No | +5,793 | $5,779 | 100¢ | $5.8K | +$9 | 06-25 11:51 | |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | +5,320 | $5,287 | 100¢ | $5.3K | +$28 | 06-27 04:26 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | +5,000 | $4,990 | 100¢ | $5.0K | +$5 | 06-28 12:32 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? | No | +5,000 | $4,965 | 100¢ | $5.0K | +$30 | 06-12 18:45 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | No | +5,000 | $4,955 | 100¢ | $5.0K | +$35 | 06-11 20:00 | |
| Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | No | +4,655 | $4,646 | 100¢ | $4.7K | +$5 | 05-30 03:17 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 498 | $1.64M | 900,508 | 749,225 | +151,283 | open | — | 02-03 16:07 |
| will iran strike israel on march 10 | 368 | $1.50M | 793,524 | 715,452 | +78,072 | open | — | 03-18 00:39 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 121 | $1.49M | 1,213,991 | 281,739 | +932,252 | open | — | 03-13 01:44 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 112 | $1.28M | 1,185,911 | 100,800 | +1,085,111 | open | — | 06-03 22:55 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 35 | $1.24M | 1,226,541 | 15,000 | +1,211,541 | open | — | 04-10 12:26 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 12 | $1.22M | 1,227,858 | 190 | +1,227,668 | open | — | 04-07 11:20 |
| will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165 | 221 | $1.16M | 1,165,645 | 7,678 | +1,157,967 | open | — | 04-06 02:29 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 12 | $933.2K | 451,214 | 483,944 | -32,730 | open | — | 01-03 11:01 |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | 151 | $815.6K | 798,374 | 22,530 | +775,845 | open | — | 05-13 14:16 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | 117 | $732.8K | 733,597 | 0 | +733,597 | open | — | 04-15 01:23 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 70 | $634.6K | 668,656 | 7,439 | +661,217 | open | — | 01-04 00:47 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 7 | $619.4K | 620,020 | 0 | +620,020 | Yes | +$620 | 05-09 12:34 |
| us x iran meeting by february 6 2026 | 116 | $598.7K | 353,908 | 245,554 | +108,354 | open | — | 02-09 14:02 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482 | 5 | $568.7K | 565,000 | 4,296 | +560,704 | open | — | 06-15 11:22 |
| will melania say career during ai talk on friday | 109 | $552.3K | 513,470 | 40,000 | +473,470 | open | — | 01-20 23:55 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 323 | $520.2K | 507,255 | 14,200 | +493,055 | open | — | 04-05 03:39 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 20 | $506.4K | 277,694 | 230,110 | +47,584 | open | — | 04-24 23:12 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 153 | $506.2K | 508,379 | 0 | +508,379 | open | — | 03-02 15:13 |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | 70 | $500.5K | 502,035 | 0 | +502,035 | Yes | +$1,505 | 05-03 23:09 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 238 | $487.6K | 491,771 | 0 | +491,771 | open | — | 02-03 04:17 |
| will trump say waste this week march 1 | 100 | $484.3K | 424,151 | 61,355 | +362,796 | open | — | 03-05 14:21 |
| will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day | 482 | $446.7K | 416,222 | 33,715 | +382,507 | open | — | 02-15 00:20 |
| will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921 | 74 | $436.0K | 436,624 | 0 | +436,624 | open | — | 03-24 05:42 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13 | 135 | $427.8K | 366,472 | 121,939 | +244,533 | open | — | 06-18 03:40 |
| will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964 | 117 | $405.9K | 406,000 | 1,827 | +404,172 | open | — | 03-29 13:21 |
| will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6 | 58 | $403.1K | 403,732 | 0 | +403,732 | open | — | 02-09 15:51 |
| will iran strike israel on march 6 | 112 | $402.3K | 343,377 | 61,002 | +282,375 | open | — | 03-11 10:42 |
| will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000 | 67 | $379.6K | 191,884 | 191,884 | +0 | open | — | 06-19 14:31 |
| will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054 | 105 | $374.8K | 375,980 | 2,247 | +373,732 | open | — | 06-20 20:18 |
| will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15 | 80 | $351.5K | 352,310 | 0 | +352,310 | open | — | 03-20 00:12 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||