Realized P&L
+$104.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$6.38K
Hit rate
93.0%
Resolved
3,494
Trades
33,875
lifetime
Volume
$52.6M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.55K
Open exposure
$143.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 08-13 06:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 221 days
Categories
Politics
49%
82%
+$28,927
Other
44%
94%
+$49,677
Crypto
5%
95%
+$10,530
Tech
1%
93%
+$2,252
Sports
1%
97%
+$11,677
Pop-Culture
0%
95%
+$1,603
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
5 active days in 12wk
• peak 8 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +39,581 | $37,202 | 98¢ | $38.6K | +$1,390 | 06-13 12:03 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +14,984 | $13,568 | 96¢ | $14.3K | +$757 | 06-17 06:09 | |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | +12,276 | $11,675 | 99¢ | $12.1K | +$429 | 06-15 22:45 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,000 | $8,750 | 98¢ | $9.8K | +$1,055 | 06-26 15:18 | |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | +9,377 | $8,294 | 97¢ | $9.1K | +$839 | 06-14 10:01 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +9,201 | $7,781 | 94¢ | $8.7K | +$914 | 06-18 08:15 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | +8,629 | $8,196 | 99¢ | $8.5K | +$342 | 06-16 02:32 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | -10,000 | -$6,600 | 78¢ | $-7750 | -$1,150 | 07-27 11:51 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +8,965 | $7,931 | 82¢ | $7.4K | -$534 | 06-15 16:15 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | +5,905 | $5,014 | 96¢ | $5.7K | +$664 | 06-02 22:33 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +3,211 | $1,929 | 98¢ | $3.2K | +$1,232 | 06-02 16:19 | |
| Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | No | +2,854 | $2,793 | 91¢ | $2.6K | -$204 | 06-19 21:33 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | No | +2,000 | $1,830 | 98¢ | $2.0K | +$133 | 06-15 00:02 | |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | +1,900 | $1,668 | 97¢ | $1.8K | +$171 | 06-14 07:50 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | -1,515 | -$1,420 | 98¢ | $-1482 | -$62 | 06-02 23:55 | |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,523 | $1,371 | 97¢ | $1.5K | +$108 | 06-09 09:16 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | +1,080 | $929 | 97¢ | $1.0K | +$120 | 05-07 00:58 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | +1,000 | $930 | 98¢ | $982 | +$52 | 05-29 22:39 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -1,000 | -$820 | 96¢ | $-962 | -$142 | 05-08 15:40 | |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? | No | +900 | $785 | 97¢ | $875 | +$90 | 06-14 14:14 | |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | +800 | $710 | 97¢ | $778 | +$68 | 05-17 11:01 | |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | No | +752 | $715 | 96¢ | $724 | +$10 | 06-11 16:00 | |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | +744 | $642 | 97¢ | $722 | +$80 | 06-11 19:40 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | -600 | -$524 | 96¢ | $-577 | -$53 | 07-20 16:51 | |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | No | +567 | $525 | 98¢ | $557 | +$33 | 06-01 03:20 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | +439 | $413 | 98¢ | $429 | +$16 | 06-15 06:22 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | -400 | -$366 | 95¢ | $-382 | -$16 | 07-20 16:46 | |
| Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | +403 | $337 | 90¢ | $363 | +$26 | 06-24 10:41 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | -386 | -$336 | 91¢ | $-351 | -$15 | 07-20 16:51 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | +300 | $264 | 96¢ | $289 | +$25 | 06-01 19:13 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 498 | $1.64M | 900,508 | 749,225 | +151,283 | Yes | +$1,111 | 02-03 16:07 |
| will iran strike israel on march 10 | 368 | $1.50M | 793,524 | 715,452 | +78,072 | Yes | +$1,759 | 03-18 00:39 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 121 | $1.49M | 1,213,991 | 281,739 | +932,252 | Yes | +$1,730 | 03-13 01:44 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 116 | $1.34M | 1,244,040 | 100,800 | +1,143,240 | No | +$4,203 | 06-03 22:55 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 35 | $1.24M | 1,226,541 | 15,000 | +1,211,541 | Yes | +$2,628 | 04-10 12:26 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 12 | $1.22M | 1,227,858 | 190 | +1,227,668 | Yes | +$2,869 | 04-07 11:20 |
| will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165 | 221 | $1.16M | 1,165,645 | 7,678 | +1,157,967 | No | -$648 | 04-06 02:29 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 12 | $933.2K | 451,214 | 483,944 | -32,730 | No | +$2 | 01-03 11:01 |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | 151 | $815.6K | 798,374 | 22,530 | +775,845 | No | +$749 | 05-13 14:16 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | 117 | $732.8K | 733,597 | 0 | +733,597 | Yes | +$839 | 04-15 01:23 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 70 | $634.6K | 668,656 | 7,439 | +661,217 | No | +$1,751 | 01-04 00:47 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 7 | $619.4K | 620,020 | 0 | +620,020 | Yes | +$620 | 05-09 12:34 |
| us x iran meeting by february 6 2026 | 116 | $598.7K | 353,908 | 245,554 | +108,354 | Yes | +$243 | 02-09 14:02 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482 | 10 | $591.0K | 587,345 | 4,296 | +583,049 | No | +$588 | 06-15 11:22 |
| will melania say career during ai talk on friday | 109 | $552.3K | 513,470 | 40,000 | +473,470 | No | +$1,072 | 01-20 23:55 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 323 | $520.2K | 507,255 | 14,200 | +493,055 | No | +$739 | 04-05 03:39 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 20 | $506.4K | 277,694 | 230,110 | +47,584 | Yes | +$703 | 04-24 23:12 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 153 | $506.2K | 508,379 | 0 | +508,379 | Yes | +$2,148 | 03-02 15:13 |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | 70 | $500.5K | 502,035 | 0 | +502,035 | Yes | +$1,505 | 05-03 23:09 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 238 | $487.6K | 491,771 | 0 | +491,771 | Yes | +$4,185 | 02-03 04:17 |
| will trump say waste this week march 1 | 100 | $484.3K | 424,151 | 61,355 | +362,796 | Yes | +$1,023 | 03-05 14:21 |
| will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day | 482 | $446.7K | 416,222 | 33,715 | +382,507 | Yes | +$0 | 02-15 00:20 |
| will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921 | 74 | $436.0K | 436,624 | 0 | +436,624 | Yes | +$653 | 03-24 05:42 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13 | 138 | $430.3K | 368,330 | 123,939 | +244,392 | No | +$798 | 06-18 04:04 |
| will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964 | 117 | $405.9K | 406,000 | 1,827 | +404,172 | No | -$59 | 03-29 13:21 |
| will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6 | 58 | $403.1K | 403,732 | 0 | +403,732 | Yes | +$587 | 02-09 15:51 |
| will iran strike israel on march 6 | 112 | $402.3K | 343,377 | 61,002 | +282,375 | No | +$1,790 | 03-11 10:42 |
| will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000 | 67 | $379.6K | 191,884 | 191,884 | +0 | No | +$53 | 06-19 14:31 |
| will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054 | 105 | $374.8K | 375,980 | 2,247 | +373,732 | Yes | +$370 | 06-20 20:18 |
| will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15 | 80 | $351.5K | 352,310 | 0 | +352,310 | No | +$856 | 03-20 00:12 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||