Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$12,312
$764 in 24h
Trades
1,888
Unique wallets
241
Liquidity
$3,629
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-31 04:16
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-5.6¢
(top1%: 2% YES on $582
vs crowd: 7% YES on $5.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 22 | $110 | $1.5K | $1.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 25 | $55 | $780 | $725 |
| 🐟 Fish | 44 | $43 | $1.8K | $1.8K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 150 | $203 | $1.2K | $954 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $9 | $573 | $564 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 11 | $70 | $114 | $44 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $25 | $471 | $446 |
| Median | 94 | $3 | $1.8K | $1.8K |
| Below median | 40 | $39 | $696 | $658 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $9 | $41 | $32 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 12 | $62 | $140 | $78 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $0 | $6 | $6 |
| unranked | 64 | $194 | $1.4K | $1.2K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xd6a9…78eb | Yes | +286 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-20 16:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x5787…5a48 | Yes | +283 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-29 20:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x61a6…de5f | Yes | +249 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 07-25 08:14 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk 0x9507…7b04 | No | +248 | $229 | $229 | 1 | 06-13 00:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +219 | $204 | $204 | 9 | 07-27 22:38 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | No | +217 | $189 | $405 | 37 | 06-01 23:37 |
| Circular-Wifi 0x3314…a8c7 | No | +211 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 07-29 11:33 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | +161 | $144 | $909 | 80 | 07-29 20:44 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +150 | $13 | $44 | 38 | 07-02 04:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | No | +101 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 07-02 14:36 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +94 | $7 | $7 | 10 | 06-22 02:39 |
| Feline-Resemblance 0xd6a8…58fd | Yes | +94 | $10 | $22 | 20 | 06-26 15:23 |
| Burly-Chronometer 0x0524…1479 | No | +90 | $84 | $84 | 1 | 07-11 06:44 |
| Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | +85 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-27 22:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +67 | $6 | $82 | 71 | 07-29 20:44 |
| Delayed-Appetiser 0x270a…7b78 | Yes | +57 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-12 17:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xc348…2cee | No | +56 | $54 | $54 | 2 | 07-27 15:40 |
| Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | +52 | $0 | $170 | 321 | 07-31 04:15 |
| Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | +52 | $45 | $462 | 20 | 07-30 17:57 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +51 | $3 | $3 | 5 | 07-14 05:25 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 07-22 09:35 |
| Weepy-Curtain 0xe6f3…2568 | No | +43 | $41 | $41 | 2 | 07-26 13:15 |
| Plush-Loft 0xa284…fbba | No | +41 | $36 | $114 | 2 | 07-23 15:16 |
| Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | +33 | $0 | $7 | 3 | 07-27 22:35 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +33 | $-1 | $42 | 34 | 07-31 04:16 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +28 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-30 13:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xc897…0bdf | No | +28 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 07-30 13:03 |
| Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | +24 | $2 | $6 | 11 | 06-20 13:08 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 05-28 00:59 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +18 | $12 | $340 | 26 | 07-31 04:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bad…09df | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-13 16:32 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-31 04:15 |
| Nifty-Receptor 0x0800…ceb0 | No | +13 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 07-06 21:19 |
| Lean-Excess 0x6f95…6ebe | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-29 03:05 |
| Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | +11 | $4 | $30 | 29 | 06-24 13:49 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-14 05:59 |
| Ecstatic-Lyrics 0xda4c…609a | No | +11 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-29 01:05 |
| Cuddly-Lymphocyte 0x0aa0…9502 | No | +11 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-29 02:39 |
| Courteous-Dwell 0xe068…c5ea | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 05-28 06:16 |
| Light-Gallery 0x47d4…071e | No | +10 | $8 | $24 | 5 | 05-29 06:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +8 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-09 06:02 |
| Prime-Browsing 0x7d33…c15f | No | +8 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 07-16 07:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 3 | 06-12 22:54 |
| Educated-Unemployment 0x78b1…cf6a | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-28 10:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x024e…8fa1 | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-06 05:11 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-26 03:30 |
| Unwilling-Reindeer 0xd8dc…1e1a | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-29 05:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x4d66…54c3 | No | +5 | $5 | $124 | 25 | 06-26 19:04 |
| Cruel-Provider 0xea7c…41f6 | No | +5 | $5 | $25 | 5 | 05-29 03:46 |
| Aware-Carbohydrate 0x5f95…46c4 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-08 08:52 |
| Courteous-Dwell 0xe068…c5ea | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 16:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xbd1c…dcda | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-31 04:16 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +4 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-11 09:09 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 04:16:53 | (anonymous) 0xbd1c…dcda | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xcb01d3… |
| 07-31 04:16:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 15 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcb01d3… |
| 07-31 04:16:53 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcb01d3… |
| 07-31 04:15:27 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x611507… |
| 07-31 04:15:27 | (anonymous) 0xcc0e…0834 | Yes | SELL | 80 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x611507… |
| 07-31 04:15:27 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x611507… |
| 07-31 04:15:27 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x611507… |
| 07-31 04:15:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 94¢ | $28 | 0x611507… |
| 07-30 17:57:14 | Mundane-Score 0x278b…43bf | No | SELL | 44 | 93¢ | $41 | 0xc23219… |
| 07-30 17:57:14 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xc23219… |
| 07-30 17:57:14 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 3 | 93¢ | $3 | 0xc23219… |
| 07-30 17:57:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0xc23219… |
| 07-30 13:03:20 | (anonymous) 0xc897…0bdf | No | BUY | 28 | 95¢ | $26 | 0x50f54e… |
| 07-30 13:03:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x50f54e… |
| 07-30 06:14:41 | (anonymous) 0x5304…fe94 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x23b440… |
| 07-30 06:14:41 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x23b440… |
| 07-29 20:44:15 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 32 | 93¢ | $30 | 0xda13de… |
| 07-29 20:44:15 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 60 | 93¢ | $56 | 0xda13de… |
| 07-29 20:44:15 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 36 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xda13de… |
| 07-29 20:44:15 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xda13de… |
| 07-29 20:44:15 | (anonymous) 0x5787…5a48 | Yes | BUY | 283 | 7¢ | $20 | 0xda13de… |
| 07-29 11:33:41 | Circular-Wifi 0x3314…a8c7 | No | BUY | 211 | 95¢ | $200 | 0x3e2740… |
| 07-29 11:33:41 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $47 | 0x3e2740… |
| 07-29 11:33:41 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 94¢ | $29 | 0x3e2740… |
| 07-29 11:33:41 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | SELL | 119 | 95¢ | $113 | 0x3e2740… |
| 07-29 11:33:41 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3e2740… |
| 07-28 10:05:05 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xabbf28… |
| 07-28 10:05:05 | (anonymous) 0x0089…c13b | Yes | SELL | 15 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xabbf28… |
| 07-27 22:38:18 | Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | BUY | 85 | 7¢ | $6 | 0xd60116… |
| 07-27 22:38:18 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 52 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xd60116… |
| 07-27 22:38:18 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 33 | 93¢ | $30 | 0xd60116… |
| 07-27 22:35:46 | (anonymous) 0xd199…3355 | Yes | SELL | 246 | 6¢ | $15 | 0x462ed2… |
| 07-27 22:35:46 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x462ed2… |
| 07-27 22:35:46 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | BUY | 61 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x462ed2… |
| 07-27 22:35:46 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x462ed2… |
| 07-27 22:35:46 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 88 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x462ed2… |
| 07-27 19:01:57 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0x85f815… |
| 07-27 19:01:57 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0x85f815… |
| 07-27 19:00:45 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 34 | 93¢ | $32 | 0x99f308… |
| 07-27 19:00:45 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 16 | 93¢ | $15 | 0x99f308… |
| 07-27 19:00:45 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0x99f308… |
| 07-27 19:00:36 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0xa07134… |
| 07-27 19:00:36 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 33 | 93¢ | $31 | 0xa07134… |
| 07-27 19:00:36 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 17 | 93¢ | $16 | 0xa07134… |
| 07-27 19:00:27 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 32 | 93¢ | $30 | 0x062b53… |
| 07-27 19:00:27 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x062b53… |
| 07-27 19:00:27 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 50 | 93¢ | $47 | 0x062b53… |
| 07-27 19:00:27 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 50 | 93¢ | $47 | 0x062b53… |
| 07-27 19:00:27 | (anonymous) 0xd199…3355 | Yes | BUY | 246 | 7¢ | $17 | 0x062b53… |
| 07-27 19:00:27 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | BUY | 50 | 93¢ | $47 | 0x062b53… |
| 07-27 19:00:27 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 35 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x062b53… |
| 07-27 17:29:19 | (anonymous) 0x7e62…6cf7 | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xfa1161… |
| 07-27 17:29:19 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xfa1161… |
| 07-27 15:40:33 | (anonymous) 0xc348…2cee | No | BUY | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x9f5301… |
| 07-27 15:40:33 | (anonymous) 0xc348…2cee | No | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x1ad136… |
| 07-27 15:40:33 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x1ad136… |
| 07-27 15:40:33 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x9f5301… |
| 07-27 05:17:12 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $19 | 0xe68b46… |
| 07-27 05:17:12 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | SELL | 21 | 94¢ | $19 | 0xe68b46… |
| 07-26 19:02:33 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x0575de… |
| 07-26 19:02:33 | (anonymous) 0xc754…bb99 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x0575de… |
| 07-26 14:08:43 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | SELL | 75 | 94¢ | $71 | 0x978274… |
| 07-26 14:08:43 | (anonymous) 0xa8d0…908b | Yes | SELL | 75 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x978274… |
| 07-26 13:30:09 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 31 | 93¢ | $29 | 0x8d99e2… |
| 07-26 13:30:09 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 31 | 93¢ | $29 | 0x8d99e2… |
| 07-26 13:20:21 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 31 | 93¢ | $29 | 0xfb955a… |
| 07-26 13:20:21 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xfb955a… |
| 07-26 13:20:21 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 37 | 93¢ | $35 | 0xfb955a… |
| 07-26 13:15:06 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | SELL | 37 | 94¢ | $35 | 0x713c0d… |
| 07-26 13:15:06 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 37 | 94¢ | $35 | 0x713c0d… |
| 07-26 13:15:01 | Weepy-Curtain 0xe6f3…2568 | No | BUY | 38 | 94¢ | $36 | 0x516b23… |
| 07-26 13:15:01 | (anonymous) 0xa8d0…908b | Yes | BUY | 75 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x516b23… |
| 07-26 13:15:01 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | BUY | 37 | 94¢ | $35 | 0x516b23… |
| 07-26 12:03:33 | Weepy-Curtain 0xe6f3…2568 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x238ea7… |
| 07-26 12:03:33 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x238ea7… |
| 07-26 12:03:24 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x13fdeb… |
| 07-26 12:03:24 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x13fdeb… |
| 07-26 04:49:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x851537… |
| 07-26 04:49:04 | (anonymous) 0x5e09…9946 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x851537… |
| 07-26 04:49:04 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x851537… |
| 07-26 03:30:43 | (anonymous) 0x1c44…0855 | No | SELL | 13 | 93¢ | $12 | 0xaef0e8… |
| 07-26 03:30:43 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xaef0e8… |
| 07-26 03:30:43 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xaef0e8… |
| 07-26 03:30:43 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0xaef0e8… |
| 07-25 19:28:16 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x672062… |
| 07-25 19:28:16 | (anonymous) 0x9d86…53e7 | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x672062… |
| 07-25 10:14:16 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0x731367… |
| 07-25 10:14:16 | (anonymous) 0x5531…8e33 | No | SELL | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0x731367… |
| 07-25 08:20:27 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | No | SELL | 38 | 93¢ | $35 | 0x3d1e7c… |
| 07-25 08:20:27 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 38 | 93¢ | $35 | 0x3d1e7c… |
| 07-25 08:20:21 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xb27737… |
| 07-25 08:20:21 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 45 | 93¢ | $42 | 0xb27737… |
| 07-25 08:20:21 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0xb27737… |
| 07-25 08:20:09 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0xa09a3a… |
| 07-25 08:20:09 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0xa09a3a… |
| 07-25 08:17:34 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 45 | 93¢ | $42 | 0xd3238f… |
| 07-25 08:17:34 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xd3238f… |
| 07-25 08:17:34 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0xd3238f… |
| 07-25 08:15:06 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 19 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xfd20d9… |
| 07-25 08:15:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 94¢ | $28 | 0xfd20d9… |