Murky-Pipeline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

71.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$149

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$46

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 08-25 10:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

70% 70% +$2

Tech

27% 60% -$8

Sports

2% 0% -$2

Politics

1% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+42	$40	98¢	$41	+$1	07-18 11:05
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		-7	-$4	64¢	$-5	-$1	07-18 11:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$40	42	0	+42	open	—	07-18 11:05
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	06-30 14:55
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	2	$13	12	12	+0	Yes	-$9	07-28 13:27
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	+$1	05-31 13:21
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	03-25 23:43
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	04-29 11:35
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-29 11:38
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$4	4	0	+4	Yes	+$0	04-29 11:33
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	1	$4	0	7	-7	open	—	07-18 11:02
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	02-23 11:10
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	1	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	-$3	03-25 23:44
nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	1	$3	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	02-23 11:09
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	02-23 11:11
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	05-31 13:24
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire	1	$2	4	0	+4	Northamptonshire	+$2	05-31 13:21
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$2	6	0	+6	No	-$2	01-11 06:00
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	+$3	06-30 14:55
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	06-30 14:56
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	1	$2	3	0	+3	England	-$2	07-18 11:05
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	08-25 10:26
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	07-18 11:03
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	07-18 11:03
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	08-25 10:25
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?	1	$2	5	0	+5	No	-$2	07-18 11:04
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 26?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	08-25 10:26
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 26?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	08-25 10:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	01-11 05:59
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	01-11 05:59
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	1	$1	4	0	+4	No	-$1	04-29 11:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-25 10:26:40	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x597067…
08-25 10:26:15	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x1d9de8…
08-25 10:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0aa467…
08-25 10:25:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xeea9f0…
07-28 13:27:53	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0xa97ee8…
07-18 11:05:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x848430…
07-18 11:05:00	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xf5d697…
07-18 11:04:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xa71c39…
07-18 11:03:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x1e99c5…
07-18 11:03:24	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xb7b316…
07-18 11:02:45	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	52¢	$4	0x3a72ce…
06-30 14:56:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xee7a73…
06-30 14:55:55	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb62724…
06-30 14:55:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x26d874…
06-30 14:55:04	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x0b6c0d…
05-31 13:24:37	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x6ad6ce…
05-31 13:23:08	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xd1ea31…
05-31 13:21:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xec5cae…
05-31 13:21:07	T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire	Northamptonshire	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0xd355d8…
04-29 11:38:20	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x746545…
04-29 11:37:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x9550f4…
04-29 11:36:44	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf851f8…
04-29 11:35:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x5bc463…
04-29 11:33:42	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x597772…
03-25 23:44:33	Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xa6896d…
03-25 23:43:05	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xad2812…
02-23 11:11:16	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$2	0xea37bd…
02-23 11:10:44	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x3deae6…
02-23 11:09:54	nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x759c56…
01-11 06:00:18	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x84e868…
01-11 05:59:38	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xdd39bc…
01-11 05:59:22	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x4714a6…