Keen-Spectacles — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$588

Unrealized P&L

-$44

Hit rate

5.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$26

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 07-11 21:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Politics

77% 17% +$1,025

Other

23% 0% -$432

Tech

0% 0% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-11).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes		+299	$50	6¢	$18	-$32	06-17 06:54
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+286	$20	3¢	$8	-$12	06-02 16:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$300	102,500	0	+102,500	Yes	-$300	06-17 06:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	6	$210	18,976	0	+18,976	Yes	-$210	05-31 08:57
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	6	$130	10,335	0	+10,335	No	-$130	06-17 20:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$110	55,000	0	+55,000	Yes	-$110	06-17 07:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	1	$100	100,000	0	+100,000	Yes	-$100	06-17 06:53
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	3	$100	100,000	0	+100,000	Yes	-$100	06-20 17:09
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	1	$100	541	0	+541	No	-$100	07-11 21:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$90	12,500	10,000	+2,500	Yes	-$10	04-07 20:22
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	1	$50	500	0	+500	No	-$50	03-02 14:51
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	1	$50	2,159	0	+2,159	No	-$50	06-02 16:15
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	1	$50	299	0	+299	open	—	06-17 06:54
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	1	$50	346	0	+346	No	-$50	06-02 16:11
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	1	$50	294	0	+294	Yes	-$50	06-15 05:55
will iran strike iraq in march	1	$50	829	0	+829	Yes	-$50	03-03 17:26
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	5	$47	500	370	+130	No	-$15	03-03 08:42
will iran strike uae in march	4	$47	4,271	4,188	+83	Yes	-$5	03-05 19:12
will iran strike israel on march 3	2	$41	58	58	+0	Yes	+$1	03-03 20:03
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	5	$30	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$30	03-01 20:23
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	1	$25	424	0	+424	Yes	-$25	04-14 11:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	1	$25	128	0	+128	No	+$103	04-14 11:01
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$25	767	0	+767	No	-$25	03-15 18:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$20	1,818	0	+1,818	Yes	-$20	03-05 17:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$20	4,762	0	+4,762	Yes	-$20	04-26 08:27
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$20	2,857	0	+2,857	No	-$20	03-05 17:31
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	286	0	+286	open	—	06-02 16:04
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	1	$20	937	0	+937	No	+$917	05-25 08:52
will wti crude oil settle at 100110 on april 8	2	$17	3,496	0	+3,496	No	-$17	04-08 19:19
will iran strike a gulf state on march 3	2	$16	1,170	1,170	+0	Yes	-$4	03-03 18:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$15	2,667	0	+2,667	Yes	-$15	04-08 17:23
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$10	3,333	0	+3,333	No	-$10	03-06 06:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 21:54:58	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	541	18¢	$100	0xb6737a…
06-20 17:09:20	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x57c9f3…
06-19 14:22:08	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	40,000	0¢	$40	0x0abde9…
06-19 08:48:02	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0x6cea0f…
06-17 20:06:52	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,333	1¢	$20	0xc9ddee…
06-17 07:04:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0x2e59be…
06-17 06:59:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0xe87126…
06-17 06:55:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0xc66702…
06-17 06:55:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	30,000	0¢	$60	0x721bf9…
06-17 06:54:29	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	299	17¢	$50	0xe6e59d…
06-17 06:53:11	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	100,000	0¢	$100	0xbe7cac…
06-15 05:56:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,500	8¢	$200	0x3540d2…
06-15 05:55:37	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0xaf5e27…
06-02 16:15:18	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,159	2¢	$50	0x8d8783…
06-02 16:11:17	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	346	14¢	$50	0x093767…
06-02 16:04:17	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xfe17eb…
05-31 08:57:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xe0f17f…
05-30 14:27:45	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,186	1¢	$20	0x9a3c15…
05-29 22:50:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xd952e0…
05-28 12:00:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0xa0c23b…
05-26 20:06:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,176	2¢	$20	0x0d00ce…
05-26 15:05:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	800	2¢	$20	0xad4c92…
05-26 09:46:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,000	2¢	$50	0x5b88d6…
05-26 08:48:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,500	4¢	$100	0x9514fc…
05-26 08:46:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,333	2¢	$20	0x21300c…
05-25 08:52:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	1,139	1¢	$10	0x3f8506…
05-25 08:52:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	BUY	937	2¢	$20	0x882776…
05-24 20:45:06	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,210	2¢	$20	0xbd4365…
04-30 17:31:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0xbaad69…
04-29 18:21:20	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,818	2¢	$40	0xc2d18e…
04-26 08:27:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0xe99879…
04-22 09:26:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,429	1¢	$10	0x15553f…
04-21 14:08:50	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x4b0a22…
04-14 11:01:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	128	20¢	$25	0xd536ea…
04-14 11:01:27	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	No	BUY	424	6¢	$25	0x34220e…
04-08 19:19:19	will wti crude oil settle at 100110 on april 8	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0xa4397c…
04-08 17:33:17	will wti crude oil settle at 100110 on april 8	Yes	BUY	163	4¢	$7	0x0a2d58…
04-08 17:23:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0xa469e6…
04-08 15:51:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x735090…
04-07 20:22:07	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	10,000	0¢	$40	0x12a5ad…
04-07 14:39:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	12,500	0¢	$50	0xea3e13…
03-15 18:57:13	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	667	3¢	$20	0x8e30b6…
03-06 16:22:37	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	101	5¢	$5	0x370c5e…
03-06 06:06:15	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0xeb5c58…
03-05 19:12:05	will iran strike uae in march	No	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x6256cf…
03-05 19:11:37	will iran strike uae in march	No	SELL	3,438	0¢	$16	0x68c9e2…
03-05 18:58:07	will iran strike uae in march	No	SELL	750	1¢	$5	0xf63b3d…
03-05 17:31:03	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,857	1¢	$20	0x4cd7d1…
03-05 17:30:21	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,818	1¢	$20	0x36a49d…
03-04 11:39:39	will iran strike uae in march	No	BUY	4,188	1¢	$25	0xf7b2ca…
03-03 20:03:45	will iran strike israel on march 3	No	SELL	58	36¢	$21	0x829f40…
03-03 19:53:33	will iran strike israel on march 3	No	BUY	58	35¢	$20	0xed0aee…
03-03 19:21:51	will iran strike qatar in march	No	BUY	237	2¢	$5	0xb12d65…
03-03 18:22:31	will iran strike a gulf state on march 3	No	SELL	1,170	0¢	$6	0xc6efa5…
03-03 18:14:05	will iran strike a gulf state on march 3	No	BUY	1,170	1¢	$10	0x6aefca…
03-03 17:38:19	will iran strike kuwait in march	No	BUY	601	2¢	$10	0x611764…
03-03 17:36:21	will iran strike bahrain in march	No	BUY	479	1¢	$5	0xc2446e…
03-03 17:26:11	will iran strike iraq in march	No	BUY	829	6¢	$50	0x864f85…
03-03 13:47:39	spx opens up or down on march 3 2026	Up	BUY	1,739	1¢	$10	0x69bdb7…
03-03 08:42:09	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	370	4¢	$16	0x0131a2…
03-02 14:51:21	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xd5a8f0…
03-02 08:41:55	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	176	6¢	$11	0x744895…
03-02 08:38:11	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	59	6¢	$4	0x8f313e…
03-02 08:38:05	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xcfbd9e…
03-02 08:36:59	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	235	6¢	$15	0xac52bd…
03-01 20:23:13	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	785	2¢	$12	0xd56023…
03-01 20:10:21	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	83	2¢	$1	0x5a1875…
03-01 20:00:33	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x186a91…
03-01 19:57:49	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0xc604ab…
03-01 19:56:57	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	626	2¢	$9	0x8d9e6a…