Late-Stepbrother — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.72K

Unrealized P&L

-$103

Hit rate

84.9%

Resolved

201

Trades

2,166

lifetime

Volume

$2.22M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.03K

Open exposure

$2.30K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-03 22:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

65% 73% +$25,254

Crypto

21% 67% -$13,485

Politics

14% 75% -$9,793

Tech

0% 83% +$12

Sports

0% 50% -$266

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-1,000	-$1,017	98¢	$-975	+$42	07-08 02:54
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	-1,000	-$930	97¢	$-971	-$41	07-08 02:51
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-3,000	-$255	12¢	$-358	-$103	09-03 22:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	575	$696.6K	354,106	364,105	-9,998	Yes	+$11,788	01-27 13:30
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	1	$162.3K	0	162,813	-162,813	No	-$488	01-01 16:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	15	$125.9K	108,650	41,352	+67,298	Yes	+$1,267	07-21 21:12
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	48	$96.1K	51,064	51,064	+0	open	—	09-03 22:44
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	44	$69.6K	52,493	30,208	+22,285	Yes	+$3,428	03-13 17:59
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$60.5K	61,410	1,000	+60,410	Yes	+$69	02-02 16:07
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	55	$53.4K	27,358	27,500	-142	No	+$116	01-28 20:37
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	117	$50.6K	25,479	25,479	+0	No	+$204	01-23 13:27
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$47.4K	47,545	0	+47,545	No	+$115	04-29 21:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$30.7K	28,626	2,535	+26,091	Yes	+$374	04-08 13:05
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	14	$27.6K	13,934	14,860	-926	No	+$87	02-02 14:40
will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	38	$25.9K	13,526	13,526	+0	No	+$1,136	02-27 18:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	3	$25.6K	26,500	0	+26,500	Yes	+$939	06-12 16:21
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	1	$24.8K	25,040	0	+25,040	Argentina	+$250	07-07 18:01
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	10	$24.3K	12,275	12,275	+0	Yes	+$218	01-23 03:07
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 team to advance	1	$23.9K	25,000	0	+25,000	Spain	+$1,062	07-02 19:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	3	$23.8K	23,847	0	+23,847	No	+$85	06-25 14:48
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	1	$22.9K	23,098	0	+23,098	No	+$224	04-02 14:44
trump out as president by march 31	3	$22.7K	22,874	0	+22,874	No	+$168	03-18 21:27
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	6	$22.5K	11,500	11,500	+0	No	+$128	01-16 23:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	30	$22.0K	14,362	14,362	+0	No	-$849	07-14 12:30
will ethereum dip to 2400 in january 2026 453	9	$20.7K	17,198	17,198	+0	Yes	-$9,742	01-31 17:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$20.6K	20,698	0	+20,698	Yes	+$134	04-08 00:59
will bitcoin dip to 65k in january 2026	14	$19.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$30	01-25 09:41
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	19	$19.4K	9,860	9,860	+0	No	+$66	07-08 02:54
will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	45	$18.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$1,090	02-27 19:13
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$18.5K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	-$100	07-01 14:38
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	11	$16.2K	16,655	0	+16,655	Yes	+$500	07-07 01:54
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	3	$14.5K	14,802	0	+14,802	No	+$313	02-28 04:57
will ethereum reach 4200 in january 2026	17	$14.1K	6,773	7,500	-727	No	+$86	01-25 06:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-03 22:46:52	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,000	14¢	$141	0xe2811d…
09-03 22:46:42	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	3,000	8¢	$255	0x1aa86f…
09-03 22:46:28	Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	95¢	$285	0x286afe…
09-03 22:46:16	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	69¢	$345	0xabccc4…
09-03 22:46:07	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	500	90¢	$448	0x21f2c4…
09-03 22:45:54	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	678	96¢	$652	0x8952f5…
09-03 22:45:36	GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	SELL	927	93¢	$862	0xb3433d…
09-03 22:45:16	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	91¢	$1,365	0x93bb2b…
09-03 22:44:40	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,982	89¢	$2,642	0xdc0a31…
09-03 22:44:12	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	4,597	95¢	$4,374	0xcdac1d…
09-03 22:43:48	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	762	95¢	$727	0x8b9908…
09-03 22:43:18	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	15,320	96¢	$14,630	0x3100f9…
09-03 22:43:10	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	3,173	96¢	$3,033	0x1a0aed…
09-03 22:42:49	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	6,245	96¢	$5,976	0x60f98b…
09-03 22:42:28	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,344	76¢	$1,024	0x94a9be…
08-28 23:47:27	GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	927	92¢	$852	0x1246d8…
08-28 04:55:57	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	2,096	95¢	$2,000	0x400984…
08-28 04:53:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	459	57¢	$262	0xe1ec28…
08-06 19:49:42	will iran target a arab country on august 6 2026 20260801004719123	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0xed0a73…
08-06 13:09:23	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	45¢	$180	0x6832a7…
08-06 13:09:23	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	220	45¢	$99	0x418501…
08-06 13:09:23	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	45¢	$180	0x185c98…
08-06 13:09:02	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	45¢	$180	0xb95ccd…
08-06 13:03:48	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	45¢	$112	0x92e111…
08-06 13:03:36	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	45¢	$112	0x5f0fe3…
08-06 13:03:24	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	45¢	$112	0x2374c5…
08-06 13:03:12	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	45¢	$112	0x5d2858…
08-06 12:59:06	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	95¢	$2,844	0x11e456…
08-06 12:58:53	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	420	45¢	$189	0x1dffad…
08-06 12:58:42	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	282	56¢	$158	0x69bdd8…
08-06 12:45:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x4023d9…
08-06 12:29:57	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x32e449…
08-06 12:12:44	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x1ffdac…
08-06 12:10:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xa9e626…
08-06 11:58:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$2	0x498b58…
08-06 11:58:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	63¢	$12	0x623419…
08-06 11:58:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x522906…
08-06 11:58:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0xbcb970…
08-06 11:58:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x3d7d97…
08-06 11:58:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x4a9837…
08-06 11:58:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x0e51d1…
08-06 09:02:47	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	63¢	$11	0xe774ad…
08-06 08:47:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x03c583…
08-06 08:41:50	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x81fbe5…
08-06 07:47:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x23999d…
08-06 07:44:32	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	63¢	$7	0xa2fc4d…
08-06 07:42:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	63¢	$12	0x5b084f…
08-06 06:51:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x78f32b…
08-06 06:12:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	63¢	$40	0xd3e8b1…
08-06 05:53:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x0ffc37…
08-06 05:13:05	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0x9ff230…
08-06 04:41:51	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0x55d84a…
08-06 04:38:51	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x4e604f…
08-06 04:15:32	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x33cb58…
08-06 03:50:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xb07ac8…
08-06 03:46:56	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x7dc6ae…
08-06 03:27:57	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0xc92496…
08-06 03:12:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x42c3ff…
08-06 03:08:56	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0x6e58aa…
08-06 03:07:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xa5fecd…
08-06 02:54:59	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0xd5f42d…
08-06 02:53:35	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x3b60b0…
08-06 02:51:29	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xf9ca7f…
08-06 02:25:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xd9b48a…
08-06 01:59:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,246	63¢	$785	0x7ce40c…
08-06 00:52:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	676	63¢	$426	0x5d2f59…
08-06 00:48:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x8b2f6b…
08-06 00:21:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0xa27e4b…
08-06 00:00:50	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	343	63¢	$216	0x074bdd…
08-04 14:05:30	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,099	52¢	$572	0xff004a…
08-04 13:52:06	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	495	52¢	$258	0x0d1cda…
08-04 13:47:48	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	52¢	$260	0x149ccd…
08-03 22:38:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	970	100¢	$967	0xf562a5…
08-01 21:59:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	960	77¢	$739	0x603ddb…
08-01 21:58:35	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0xccd2ad…
08-01 21:57:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xff0c95…
08-01 20:53:35	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	24,192	94¢	$22,861	0x8394cf…
08-01 12:45:27	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x0eb9dc…
08-01 09:36:47	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$9	0xa0b487…
08-01 03:10:39	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc3206f…
08-01 02:40:00	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	659	94¢	$623	0x6b8f09…
08-01 01:42:27	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x018118…
08-01 01:35:06	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xb0a15b…
07-31 18:55:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	66¢	$1,980	0x406761…
07-31 18:29:45	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0xbec2d3…
07-31 15:58:30	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4d2be9…
07-31 13:59:38	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xea508a…
07-31 13:59:38	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x70e10f…
07-31 12:37:44	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	208	52¢	$108	0x46126b…
07-31 11:04:39	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x544727…
07-31 09:27:30	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x71083d…
07-31 09:19:41	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xbe79e9…
07-31 09:14:20	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xaedbdd…
07-31 08:23:47	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x394271…
07-31 07:16:54	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xb8f3a9…
07-31 06:58:09	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4b08f1…
07-31 06:55:02	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xfbde4b…
07-31 06:54:56	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb24343…
07-31 06:49:15	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6e7d54…
07-31 06:35:59	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xcf02dc…