Fickle-Halt-Window — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$447

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.9%

Resolved

Trades

82,162

lifetime

Volume

$883.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 08-05 07:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

69% 78% +$438

Other

18% 100% +$9

Tech

13% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 8015 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	2,453	$37.8K	29,427	25,168	+4,259	open	—	07-09 15:06
iran closes its airspace by july 31	828	$32.5K	25,892	13,620	+12,273	open	—	06-07 23:11
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4,000	$28.5K	25,803	26,795	-992	open	—	06-09 00:55
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2,969	$24.5K	22,881	17,150	+5,730	open	—	06-08 23:58
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1,759	$24.1K	24,251	24,241	+10	open	—	07-12 16:50
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3,249	$24.0K	16,375	16,644	-270	open	—	06-01 02:54
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3,858	$17.8K	28,150	20,662	+7,488	open	—	06-08 19:59
iran closes its airspace by july 15	649	$17.5K	13,147	9,362	+3,785	open	—	06-07 22:50
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	603	$17.4K	9,827	9,544	+283	open	—	07-14 18:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,118	$16.2K	10,821	10,835	-14	open	—	05-31 11:30
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	899	$15.7K	13,958	14,215	-257	open	—	08-01 01:56
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662 752 464 953	1,067	$15.4K	9,551	6,472	+3,079	open	—	07-01 21:24
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1,288	$13.5K	10,663	11,340	-677	open	—	05-31 15:59
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1,150	$12.8K	14,025	13,432	+593	open	—	08-05 06:13
will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	881	$12.3K	9,575	6,552	+3,023	open	—	06-12 10:54
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	623	$11.6K	7,847	9,365	-1,518	open	—	06-12 11:33
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	111	$11.1K	5,601	5,752	-151	open	—	07-01 02:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	935	$10.5K	8,584	8,842	-258	open	—	06-12 12:18
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	819	$10.5K	10,407	10,636	-230	open	—	06-29 20:32
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	481	$9.9K	5,477	5,435	+43	open	—	05-31 20:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1,175	$9.8K	6,939	6,902	+37	open	—	05-26 14:46
israel closes its airspace by july 24	300	$9.5K	6,046	5,733	+313	open	—	07-24 16:32
israel closes its airspace by august 15	858	$9.3K	11,536	10,469	+1,067	open	—	08-05 07:01
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	299	$9.2K	5,446	5,402	+44	open	—	07-15 16:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	387	$8.7K	5,954	9,028	-3,074	open	—	06-12 12:18
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	347	$8.6K	5,225	4,829	+396	open	—	07-01 20:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	424	$8.2K	4,302	4,326	-24	open	—	05-22 20:50
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	1,268	$8.1K	14,733	12,558	+2,174	open	—	07-13 11:36
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	797	$8.0K	5,200	4,101	+1,099	open	—	05-31 12:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	672	$8.0K	8,457	8,311	+146	open	—	07-23 22:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 07:30:45	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	25	37¢	$9	0x59ca94…
08-05 07:30:45	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x24c4df…
08-05 07:23:50	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	7	83¢	$5	0x422874…
08-05 07:18:42	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x1b3933…
08-05 07:18:41	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	22	35¢	$8	0xd1737b…
08-05 07:18:32	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xf29097…
08-05 07:01:12	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0xf212da…
08-05 07:01:11	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x46824d…
08-05 06:53:17	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xcfcc0e…
08-05 06:52:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	36	83¢	$30	0x19e351…
08-05 06:13:38	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	92	91¢	$84	0x10069b…
08-05 06:01:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	43	71¢	$31	0x4c1f67…
08-05 05:57:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xbdd459…
08-05 05:48:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	42	4¢	$2	0x891aae…
08-05 05:45:53	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0xbaf8a7…
08-05 05:34:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	48	66¢	$31	0x163299…
08-05 05:09:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	17	69¢	$11	0x2297b9…
08-05 05:05:24	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	10	83¢	$9	0x9a726f…
08-05 05:05:17	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0x4073c2…
08-05 05:00:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	67	4¢	$3	0x2fbf31…
08-05 04:19:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	81	4¢	$3	0x547ceb…
08-05 04:14:45	Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xad6f89…
08-05 04:08:59	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7c08b9…
08-05 03:34:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	27	68¢	$18	0x0442f4…
08-05 03:34:30	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0xbab0a5…
08-05 03:29:05	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x91829f…
08-05 03:22:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xd0f3c1…
08-05 03:16:29	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x228e8b…
08-05 03:16:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0x50e3dd…
08-05 03:15:21	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	SELL	16	86¢	$14	0x8c6696…
08-05 03:13:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0xcdcd86…
08-05 03:08:39	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x240b6f…
08-05 03:08:35	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	124	88¢	$109	0x29f92b…
08-05 03:03:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	18	70¢	$13	0xf878a6…
08-05 03:02:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	7	65¢	$4	0xf93cb6…
08-05 02:46:24	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x5dcc0a…
08-05 02:45:59	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0xa2d829…
08-05 02:43:33	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0xbfdd04…
08-05 02:43:29	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0x252198…
08-05 02:39:39	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xd64b91…
08-05 02:29:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	34	64¢	$22	0x61d4f3…
08-05 02:25:39	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x410058…
08-05 02:25:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	22	83¢	$19	0x781e75…
08-05 02:24:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x249daa…
08-05 02:18:18	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	54	90¢	$48	0x2f9880…
08-05 02:15:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0xd431b9…
08-05 02:13:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	14	70¢	$9	0x006fce…
08-05 02:11:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	5	67¢	$4	0x0421be…
08-05 02:10:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0xdf0cdc…
08-05 02:06:27	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	28	12¢	$3	0x6bd1dc…
08-05 02:05:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x5faeb4…
08-05 02:02:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0x8b5f93…
08-05 02:02:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x48282a…
08-05 02:02:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xbe86d3…
08-05 02:01:44	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	14	88¢	$12	0x515711…
08-05 02:00:03	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x9b5780…
08-05 01:54:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	29	45¢	$13	0xcd32a7…
08-05 01:53:45	Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x9b7a3c…
08-05 01:49:15	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x5f9563…
08-05 01:35:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	48	46¢	$22	0xc201ef…
08-05 01:35:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	37	46¢	$17	0x5bc601…
08-05 01:35:33	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2aff88…
08-05 01:35:29	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0x20c600…
08-05 01:32:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	55	72¢	$40	0xd12282…
08-05 01:21:27	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0xb7103d…
08-05 01:13:39	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	27	88¢	$24	0x74f897…
08-05 00:58:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	16	72¢	$11	0x22178e…
08-05 00:12:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	24	70¢	$17	0x58184a…
08-04 23:36:38	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x9ef28d…
08-04 23:24:08	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x879b32…
08-04 23:22:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	60	71¢	$43	0xe0eaae…
08-04 23:05:17	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0xba7ca8…
08-04 22:57:24	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0xc084ec…
08-04 22:47:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	11	70¢	$7	0x3299ca…
08-04 22:44:54	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	9	83¢	$8	0x97e6dc…
08-04 22:39:38	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0xb8bf40…
08-04 22:28:50	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0xbe8365…
08-04 22:27:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0x603fa7…
08-04 22:23:50	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0xfd8826…
08-04 22:21:00	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	56¢	$3	0xa37044…
08-04 22:17:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x8a84f9…
08-04 22:17:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0xaade1f…
08-04 22:16:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	SELL	21	71¢	$15	0xec6d51…
08-04 22:16:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x7b88b5…
08-04 22:06:33	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xa97ea1…
08-04 22:05:42	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x5b558e…
08-04 21:59:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xcdddbd…
08-04 21:52:48	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x12fd51…
08-04 21:48:56	Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x974fbe…
08-04 21:46:45	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0xc73829…
08-04 21:46:44	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xff9b8c…
08-04 21:44:18	Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	7¢	$4	0x3ac4d7…
08-04 21:43:17	Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0x55d643…
08-04 21:25:02	next token sale on coinbase by october 31 2026	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x624f57…
08-04 21:18:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	54	3¢	$2	0x280eea…
08-04 21:18:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	54	3¢	$2	0xd0e4af…
08-04 21:17:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	78	3¢	$2	0x7d26f0…
08-04 21:12:33	Will Tempo launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0x71d024…
08-04 21:08:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0xc3ebd8…
08-04 21:08:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x028f90…