Big Polymarket bets that looked unusual before the outcome was known: brand-new wallets, long odds, large stakes. Rebuilt every hour.
Unusual is not proof of inside information — most of these bets lose.
A wallet on its first day bet $40,636 on YES at 9¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?A wallet on its first day bet $37,789 on YES at 4¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?A wallet on its first day bet $26,596 on YES at 11¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?A wallet on its first day bet $17,928 on YES at 13¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?A wallet 7 days old at the time bet $16,800 on NO at 14¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?A wallet on its first day bet $11,188 on YES at 5¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Bets of $2,000 or more at 35¢ or less on markets that have not resolved yet; up to 40 of the highest-scoring are listed. “Pays if right” is what the bet returns if its side wins.
Markets that resolved this week where at least one unusual bet won. They are here because they won: most unusual bets lose (see Does this score work?).
Line = price of the winning side. Dots = unusual bets (red very unusual, amber unusual, grey notable). Dashed orange = the moment the price jumped (news).
Line = price of the winning side. Dots = unusual bets (red very unusual, amber unusual, grey notable). Dashed orange = the moment the price jumped (news).
Open markets where wallets less than a week old spent the most, ranked by what they put on long odds.
New wallets that look alike in one market: created within days of each other and bought the same side, or bought in the same minute. We cannot see who funds them, so this is a pattern, not proof they belong to one person.
7 new wallets created between Oct 19 and Oct 21 all bought YES at 28–32¢ — $89,624 together. The market is still open.
6 new wallets created between Oct 12 and Oct 14 all bought NO at 30–31¢ — $54,627 together. 5 of them made their first bet in the same minute. The market is still open.
3 new wallets created between Oct 10 and Oct 11 all bought YES at 28–31¢ — $33,620 together. The market is still open.
Checked on 1/16 of markets (condition id starting 0x0), YES/NO only, resolved on-chain since 2026-02-01. Each bet is scored at the moment it first reached $2,000 bought at an average of 35¢ or less, using only what was known then; 5- and 15-minute up/down markets are left out. “Price said” is the average price paid, which is the chance the market gave. Return is profit over stake. The last three columns count each market outcome once. Rows with fewer than 50 bets are dimmed and do not set the bar scale. Recomputed daily; this one Oct 26 14:58 UTC.
Levels: Notable 3–6, Unusual 7–9, Very unusual 10+. Wallets first seen before February 2026 get no age points (our trade history starts in January 2026). How often a wallet’s earlier bets won, and whether it sold early, are shown as reasons but not scored. Known 2026 cases are kept as tests: the Maduro and Iran-strike wallets score 10–13.
A Polymarket position that looked unusual before the outcome was known: a wallet a few days old staking thousands on one market, an outcome bought at long odds for a few cents, a large share of a market's buying, or an entry hours before the result. The page is rebuilt every hour from Polymarket trades and on-chain resolutions.
It flags positioning that looked unusual before an outcome was known: the patterns people point to when they suspect insider trading, such as a wallet a few days old staking thousands on one longshot. It cannot see who is behind a wallet or what they knew, so a flag is a reason to look, not evidence of insider trading.
Points for a young wallet, few markets traded, a longshot entry price, a large stake or share of the market's buying, a geopolitical market and, once the market resolves, a late entry or a very high return; wallets active in more than 100 markets lose points. A score of 3 to 6 is shown as Notable, 7 to 9 as Unusual and 10 or more as Very unusual.
Not necessarily. The page's score check, recomputed daily on markets that have resolved, compares how often unusual bets won with how often their entry prices said they would. A score describes how a bet was placed, not whether it will win, and most unusual bets lose.
A score marks positioning that was unusual before an outcome was known. It does not say that anyone had non-public information, and most high scores are lucky or skilled bets.