Tough-Conscience — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$30.7K

Hit rate

39.0%

Resolved

Trades

25,192

lifetime

Volume

$3.61M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$143

Open exposure

$19.2K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-26 18:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Politics

66% 54% -$11,779

Other

34% 60% +$1,297

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+9,711	$7,563	88¢	$8.6K	+$1,032	09-22 17:58
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	+21,510	$4,678	26¢	$5.6K	+$915	10-26 19:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+43,711	$37,204	12¢	$5.0K	-$32,177	10-25 15:24
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	No	+1	-$25	97¢	$1	+$26	10-13 02:54
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	+1	$449	3¢	$0	-$449	10-13 21:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3,219	$820.3K	732,502	656,352	+76,149	Yes	-$16	06-17 02:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3,962	$815.7K	1,540,959	1,487,537	+53,422	open	—	10-25 15:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1,062	$169.0K	247,691	252,278	-4,587	Yes	-$7,989	06-17 18:34
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	583	$164.8K	150,903	142,803	+8,099	No	+$806	03-31 03:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1,022	$148.3K	224,379	162,459	+61,920	No	-$3,758	01-18 05:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	867	$124.1K	216,434	163,928	+52,506	No	+$2,840	05-28 06:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1,624	$118.7K	325,363	283,217	+42,145	No	+$1,825	03-31 03:20
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	616	$97.4K	57,623	60,154	-2,531	No	-$115	03-14 22:13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	690	$86.6K	69,171	69,992	-821	No	+$2,822	04-28 13:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	299	$70.1K	66,278	63,011	+3,268	No	+$1,212	06-26 13:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	313	$61.3K	92,554	97,078	-4,524	No	+$266	05-26 21:02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	592	$54.1K	83,743	64,270	+19,473	Yes	-$5,433	05-01 19:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	628	$51.0K	65,668	66,750	-1,082	Yes	-$422	06-15 06:06
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	592	$50.0K	66,852	41,715	+25,137	Yes	-$3,426	05-01 19:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	86	$48.8K	29,138	29,138	+0	No	+$234	08-16 22:30
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	246	$48.7K	34,853	32,853	+2,000	No	+$104	07-08 19:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	219	$47.7K	26,380	23,916	+2,464	No	+$70	07-31 03:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	134	$44.9K	25,380	20,861	+4,520	Yes	+$231	04-12 19:59
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	363	$44.6K	90,939	69,429	+21,510	open	—	10-26 19:13
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	273	$40.0K	38,416	20,900	+17,516	No	-$260	03-21 08:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	319	$38.9K	76,273	41,403	+34,870	No	+$18	05-28 01:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	153	$37.7K	26,680	23,221	+3,460	No	-$659	05-28 18:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	700	$34.1K	47,612	53,278	-5,666	No	-$959	04-28 13:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	144	$33.8K	38,566	39,593	-1,027	Yes	-$1,645	01-17 21:36
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	745	$30.7K	64,102	64,216	-114	Yes	+$2,867	06-07 19:40
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america in 2026	61	$27.4K	14,406	14,406	+0	Yes	+$50	08-29 19:01
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	355	$24.6K	32,799	37,401	-4,602	No	-$60	01-06 04:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	489	$23.9K	37,658	40,533	-2,875	Yes	-$3,093	04-07 19:48
odds of khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 over 30 on sunday	41	$22.7K	7,440	15,378	-7,937	No	-$2	01-11 18:21
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	760	$22.4K	54,975	52,345	+2,631	No	+$2,692	06-27 14:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:13:59	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xbd3f34…
10-26 19:12:56	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8,010	25¢	$2,002	0x459d1e…
10-26 19:12:47	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	581	24¢	$139	0x9df843…
10-26 18:31:18	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x94db3f…
10-26 17:33:03	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x651eb9…
10-26 17:32:53	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	280	23¢	$64	0x2a804c…
10-26 16:57:12	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x54bacb…
10-26 13:40:44	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	23¢	$115	0x8a07e2…
10-26 12:33:51	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	185	24¢	$44	0x59fb41…
10-26 12:16:29	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0xcc9540…
10-26 10:48:57	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	103	22¢	$23	0xa6b005…
10-26 10:29:44	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x6d5075…
10-26 10:19:45	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	391	22¢	$86	0xd0f1a7…
10-26 10:18:59	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x46acf6…
10-26 09:59:57	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xdd15a5…
10-26 09:54:54	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x78b23e…
10-26 09:52:33	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	819	22¢	$180	0x2dacfc…
10-26 09:02:03	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	787	30¢	$236	0x98c41c…
10-26 08:55:51	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	107	22¢	$24	0x113ea3…
10-26 06:46:41	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x6bd091…
10-26 06:14:00	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1,607	2¢	$24	0x826fff…
10-26 06:00:14	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x7bdb14…
10-26 05:49:44	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x29d227…
10-26 05:39:24	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xf55afa…
10-26 05:39:23	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x10bc23…
10-26 05:29:00	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x111579…
10-26 05:18:41	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0xddd64f…
10-26 05:17:00	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	95	2¢	$2	0x755b0f…
10-26 05:11:41	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xab2a37…
10-26 05:09:35	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,455	2¢	$26	0xe8ec81…
10-26 05:00:38	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	20¢	$60	0x968451…
10-26 04:58:15	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0xd6bb56…
10-26 04:53:42	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	26	2¢	$1	0xe9fbad…
10-26 04:48:06	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	492	2¢	$11	0x879386…
10-26 04:45:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2,000	2¢	$42	0xe2bce9…
10-26 04:41:17	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	590	2¢	$13	0xf9c49d…
10-26 04:34:00	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	21¢	$3	0xe8b6fc…
10-26 04:32:24	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	938	21¢	$197	0x442e98…
10-26 04:01:00	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	926	18¢	$167	0x8e3166…
10-26 03:59:53	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	56	18¢	$10	0x15194e…
10-26 03:13:47	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x86e0e8…
10-26 03:11:00	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	39	21¢	$8	0x6ed791…
10-26 03:08:51	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	213	20¢	$43	0xe2483b…
10-26 02:40:42	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0xe75fe9…
10-26 02:38:42	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	32¢	$25	0x525aea…
10-26 02:38:41	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	32¢	$22	0x6185e2…
10-26 02:37:54	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	31¢	$19	0xf5dea3…
10-26 02:37:41	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	689	32¢	$223	0x446c70…
10-26 02:36:24	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	528	18¢	$95	0x2d865f…
10-26 02:28:44	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x389c8a…
10-26 02:18:39	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	249	21¢	$52	0x8cef3c…
10-26 02:16:47	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xdb9f43…
10-26 02:15:29	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	33¢	$64	0x6e4801…
10-26 01:51:36	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	1,510	19¢	$287	0xa31212…
10-26 00:32:53	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x6cbaa0…
10-25 23:39:05	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0xb343db…
10-25 22:35:05	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	133	20¢	$27	0x88011d…
10-25 20:51:03	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	34¢	$27	0xef5d89…
10-25 20:48:36	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	34¢	$21	0x5d969b…
10-25 20:37:50	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	34¢	$81	0x45fc39…
10-25 20:26:59	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,121	34¢	$723	0x7f6c6e…
10-25 20:15:48	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xaaf72d…
10-25 20:10:11	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	36¢	$55	0x5224ad…
10-25 20:06:33	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x00093d…
10-25 19:58:30	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	256	34¢	$87	0x03d84f…
10-25 19:56:51	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,490	33¢	$822	0x17ae30…
10-25 19:53:21	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	21¢	$63	0x56daea…
10-25 19:35:39	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x82a4e4…
10-25 19:21:20	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x324940…
10-25 19:14:59	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x3659a5…
10-25 19:14:59	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x154451…
10-25 19:14:44	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x5bffea…
10-25 19:03:29	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	212	20¢	$42	0x77a7cd…
10-25 17:10:36	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x898dce…
10-25 16:36:18	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	32¢	$7	0xad5233…
10-25 15:26:14	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x005ca8…
10-25 15:24:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10,000	11¢	$1,100	0xb9daae…
10-25 15:23:30	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	129	20¢	$26	0x9cfb43…
10-25 14:55:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10,000	11¢	$1,100	0xf25158…
10-25 13:21:42	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	32¢	$25	0x61daf9…
10-25 12:46:54	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	122	20¢	$24	0x380c21…
10-25 12:45:56	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x3bcd98…
10-25 12:44:11	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	469	19¢	$89	0xcaaa12…
10-25 12:44:11	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	150	20¢	$30	0xb73121…
10-25 12:44:11	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	304	20¢	$61	0x2b6846…
10-25 12:41:02	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	20¢	$60	0xcc573d…
10-25 12:41:02	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x7aa112…
10-25 12:38:38	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	21¢	$5	0xd064cc…
10-25 12:37:51	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	75	21¢	$16	0x634d6e…
10-25 12:36:47	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	24¢	$24	0xf8491c…
10-25 12:36:39	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	490	23¢	$113	0x7ee20c…
10-25 12:36:18	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	915	21¢	$193	0x8df520…
10-25 12:33:26	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	423	19¢	$80	0xe174a6…
10-25 12:02:33	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x496eeb…
10-25 11:37:21	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x8e75a4…
10-25 11:26:11	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x48ecc1…
10-25 09:40:51	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xc2e5d2…
10-25 09:39:32	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	151	19¢	$29	0xd154eb…
10-25 09:39:32	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	178	19¢	$34	0x5f7dc5…
10-25 09:33:51	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x71e627…