Tough-Conscience — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

—

Unrealized P&L

-$30.9K

Hit rate

—

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

184

25,488 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$21.2K

$3.65M lifetime

Avg / trade

$143

Open exposure

$15.3K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-30 11:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Politics

66% 54% -$11,779

Other

34% 60% +$1,297

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+9,711	$7,563	88¢	$8.6K	+$1,032	09-22 17:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+42,211	$37,100	12¢	$4.9K	-$32,246	10-30 12:19
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	+1,086	$792	72¢	$787	-$5	10-28 09:36
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	+2,237	-$139	20¢	$458	+$597	10-30 12:13
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	+405	$318	80¢	$322	+$4	10-30 11:43
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+1,086	$206	28¢	$299	+$93	10-29 21:15
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	No	+1	-$25	99¢	$1	+$26	10-13 02:54
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	+1	$449	1¢	$0	-$449	10-13 21:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4,004	$822.2K	1,568,957	1,517,035	+51,922	open	—	10-30 12:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3,219	$820.3K	732,502	656,352	+76,149	Yes	-$16	06-17 02:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1,062	$169.0K	247,691	252,278	-4,587	Yes	-$7,989	06-17 18:34
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	583	$164.8K	150,903	142,803	+8,099	No	+$806	03-31 03:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1,022	$148.3K	224,379	162,459	+61,920	No	-$3,758	01-18 05:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	867	$124.1K	216,434	163,928	+52,506	No	+$2,840	05-28 06:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1,624	$118.7K	325,363	283,217	+42,145	No	+$1,825	03-31 03:20
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	616	$97.4K	57,623	60,154	-2,531	No	-$115	03-14 22:13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	690	$86.6K	69,171	69,992	-821	No	+$2,822	04-28 13:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	299	$70.1K	66,278	63,011	+3,268	No	+$1,212	06-26 13:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	313	$61.3K	92,554	97,078	-4,524	No	+$266	05-26 21:02
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	426	$58.2K	108,911	106,270	+2,642	open	—	10-30 12:13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	592	$54.1K	83,743	64,270	+19,473	Yes	-$5,433	05-01 19:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	628	$51.0K	65,668	66,750	-1,082	Yes	-$422	06-15 06:06
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	592	$50.0K	66,852	41,715	+25,137	Yes	-$3,426	05-01 19:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	86	$48.8K	29,138	29,138	+0	No	+$234	08-16 22:30
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	246	$48.7K	34,853	32,853	+2,000	No	+$104	07-08 19:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	219	$47.7K	26,380	23,916	+2,464	No	+$70	07-31 03:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	134	$44.9K	25,380	20,861	+4,520	Yes	+$231	04-12 19:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	273	$40.0K	38,416	20,900	+17,516	No	-$260	03-21 08:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	319	$38.9K	76,273	41,403	+34,870	No	+$18	05-28 01:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	153	$37.7K	26,680	23,221	+3,460	No	-$659	05-28 18:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	700	$34.1K	47,612	53,278	-5,666	No	-$959	04-28 13:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	144	$33.8K	38,566	39,593	-1,027	Yes	-$1,645	01-17 21:36
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	745	$30.7K	64,102	64,216	-114	Yes	+$2,867	06-07 19:40
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america in 2026	61	$27.4K	14,406	14,406	+0	Yes	+$50	08-29 19:01
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	355	$24.6K	32,799	37,401	-4,602	No	-$60	01-06 04:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	489	$23.9K	37,658	40,533	-2,875	Yes	-$3,093	04-07 19:48
odds of khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 over 30 on sunday	41	$22.7K	7,440	15,378	-7,937	No	-$2	01-11 18:21
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	760	$22.4K	54,975	52,345	+2,631	No	+$2,692	06-27 14:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:19:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xcee984…
10-30 12:13:52	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x0a30b7…
10-30 12:12:00	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	130	21¢	$27	0x481721…
10-30 11:43:18	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	BUY	383	78¢	$299	0x7034eb…
10-30 11:42:51	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,316	21¢	$486	0x460ebc…
10-30 11:39:54	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	SELL	178	80¢	$142	0xd8f4b1…
10-30 11:22:28	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0xaa21cf…
10-30 11:22:28	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x6c27e4…
10-30 11:05:18	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,805	22¢	$845	0x33b3bc…
10-30 10:24:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	118	11¢	$13	0xbf002b…
10-30 09:55:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	110	11¢	$12	0x693866…
10-30 09:41:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x5eae8e…
10-30 09:37:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,310	11¢	$144	0x3c19a5…
10-30 09:22:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0xf29825…
10-30 09:22:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	11¢	$110	0xc5a3a2…
10-30 09:22:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	11¢	$110	0x309236…
10-30 08:36:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x97088b…
10-30 04:22:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x4044d1…
10-30 04:17:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x3b9fd7…
10-30 04:07:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xedad1f…
10-30 03:59:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	10¢	$200	0xb48100…
10-30 03:58:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	290	10¢	$29	0xe878df…
10-30 02:09:22	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x52c860…
10-30 02:05:54	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	175	24¢	$42	0x8400cd…
10-30 02:02:54	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	59	25¢	$15	0xf7f0fb…
10-30 01:56:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	500	11¢	$55	0x03c0b7…
10-30 01:55:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	500	11¢	$55	0xb0f865…
10-30 01:55:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	500	11¢	$55	0x384b00…
10-30 01:54:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,002	11¢	$110	0x177dab…
10-30 01:53:12	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	2,315	16¢	$375	0xae951d…
10-30 01:42:22	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	1,206	18¢	$217	0xc3250e…
10-30 01:39:43	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	253	17¢	$43	0xbf9c11…
10-30 01:38:01	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	111	16¢	$18	0x1e67d5…
10-30 01:38:00	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	4,476	19¢	$841	0xd488d8…
10-30 01:37:45	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	245	21¢	$51	0x17bb14…
10-30 01:37:00	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	55	21¢	$12	0x1fdb74…
10-30 01:35:51	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	313	21¢	$66	0x825662…
10-30 01:34:58	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	458	21¢	$96	0x02cc1e…
10-30 01:32:51	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x0e0b69…
10-30 01:23:39	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	396	22¢	$87	0xbfb3fa…
10-30 01:20:16	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	295	21¢	$62	0x69de5c…
10-30 01:17:51	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xed64bc…
10-30 01:15:46	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x61ab48…
10-30 01:05:55	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	205	22¢	$45	0x6e9add…
10-30 00:54:09	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x444796…
10-30 00:49:18	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	410	24¢	$98	0x563f3e…
10-30 00:45:40	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x4ba6fe…
10-30 00:39:25	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	160	30¢	$48	0x48b32f…
10-30 00:37:33	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x15edce…
10-30 00:35:19	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x3c63b5…
10-30 00:35:15	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	31	31¢	$10	0xdb1523…
10-30 00:35:06	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	36	33¢	$12	0x896cd3…
10-30 00:35:06	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x63d152…
10-30 00:34:22	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	64	33¢	$21	0xa77c50…
10-30 00:34:01	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x0efed6…
10-30 00:33:22	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	35	37¢	$13	0x6aadd5…
10-30 00:33:22	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	65	37¢	$24	0x6a9456…
10-30 00:32:52	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	230	38¢	$87	0x601a38…
10-30 00:32:21	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x70ad2b…
10-30 00:26:36	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x363e18…
10-30 00:26:04	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	80	41¢	$33	0x76049d…
10-30 00:17:04	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0xe3d55d…
10-30 00:16:55	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x3a7cfd…
10-30 00:16:13	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	16	58¢	$9	0x3cf5c7…
10-30 00:16:13	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	38	58¢	$22	0x205dd4…
10-30 00:15:30	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0xca3a53…
10-30 00:15:19	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	96	49¢	$47	0x37df93…
10-30 00:14:42	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	46	48¢	$22	0xf54e40…
10-30 00:14:25	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x66d023…
10-30 00:14:24	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	400	48¢	$192	0xd68933…
10-30 00:13:37	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x3685cf…
10-30 00:11:40	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0xe4b92b…
10-29 23:57:01	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	261	27¢	$70	0xede326…
10-29 23:53:28	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	182	27¢	$49	0x160d7c…
10-29 23:52:49	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	582	27¢	$157	0xd197d1…
10-29 23:45:01	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	2,174	28¢	$599	0xdf9e96…
10-29 23:42:19	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	737	32¢	$236	0xf1aded…
10-29 23:37:37	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	411	33¢	$135	0x1c572d…
10-29 23:34:42	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	125	29¢	$36	0x8d083b…
10-29 23:34:18	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x6e8bcb…
10-29 23:32:49	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	372	28¢	$104	0x7017b7…
10-29 23:31:46	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	115	30¢	$34	0x4056f4…
10-29 23:25:07	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	457	29¢	$133	0xad4e8a…
10-29 22:59:19	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	1,549	53¢	$821	0x3aee7e…
10-29 22:58:04	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	217	62¢	$135	0x72458f…
10-29 22:57:39	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	78	63¢	$49	0x894be6…
10-29 22:57:36	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	222	63¢	$140	0x7a126a…
10-29 22:57:33	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	78	62¢	$48	0x7b10fe…
10-29 22:57:31	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	222	62¢	$138	0xfa318f…
10-29 22:57:24	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x252ecc…
10-29 22:55:24	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x76741b…
10-29 22:55:19	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0xec4035…
10-29 22:53:45	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0x4735aa…
10-29 22:53:09	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xb0adbd…
10-29 22:51:30	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0x927015…
10-29 22:51:25	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	26	50¢	$13	0x95db49…
10-29 22:51:18	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x66518b…
10-29 22:51:16	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xb7d851…
10-29 22:51:15	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xbdf50a…
10-29 22:51:12	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x185be0…