Failing-Wedding 0xb8a47d…cea13b
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← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$0
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
92.1%
Resolved
6
Trades
2,712
lifetime
Volume
$10.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$407
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-09
last 06-09 18:24
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
65% 50% +$0
Other
34% 25% +$0
Tech
2% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
32 active days in 12wk • peak 232 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -113 $-105 93¢ $-105 +$1 06-07 01:33
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -29 $-28 98¢ $-28 $-0 06-09 18:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No -26 $-26 99¢ $-26 +$0 06-09 21:17
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -26 $-24 95¢ $-25 $-0 06-08 18:12
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -28 $-24 86¢ $-24 +$0 06-07 05:42
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +22 $16 72¢ $15 $-0 06-02 13:43
Trump out as President by June 30? No -14 $-13 99¢ $-13 $-0 06-07 03:46
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -14 $-11 88¢ $-12 $-1 06-08 23:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +13 $13 90¢ $12 $-1 06-08 10:34
Netanyahu out by June 30? No +12 $12 98¢ $12 +$0 06-06 23:01
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No +11 $7 100¢ $11 +$4 06-05 01:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No +10 $10 97¢ $10 +$0 06-04 20:30
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 06-08 20:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +52 $17 20¢ $10 $-7 06-09 09:12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 05-28 01:07
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No +8 $8 99¢ $8 +$0 06-07 18:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $7 68¢ $7 $-0 06-09 00:14
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +8 $6 82¢ $6 +$0 06-02 09:36
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No -6 $-6 98¢ $-6 $-0 06-08 20:33
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No -7 $-6 86¢ $-6 +$0 06-07 01:56
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No -6 $-5 96¢ $-6 $-0 06-08 10:41
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +6 $5 95¢ $6 +$0 06-04 12:50
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +6 $5 94¢ $6 +$0 06-05 07:25
Epstein client list released by June 30? No -6 $-5 98¢ $-5 $-0 06-03 00:19
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes +5 $3 100¢ $5 +$2 06-04 20:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No +8 $7 63¢ $5 $-2 06-04 22:44
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -5 $-5 91¢ $-5 +$0 06-02 02:38
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -5 $-5 94¢ $-5 +$0 06-06 18:44
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +6 $4 72¢ $4 +$0 06-02 10:45
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes -7 $-4 57¢ $-4 $-0 06-01 20:01