Failing-Wedding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.1%

Resolved

Trades

7,520

lifetime

Volume

$38.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 07-28 01:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

60% 50% +$0

Other

38% 25% +$0

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 430 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	184	$2.1K	2,120	1,452	+668	open	—	07-07 01:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	278	$1.6K	3,077	2,171	+906	open	—	06-17 23:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	287	$1.3K	3,119	3,176	-57	open	—	06-01 03:50
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	79	$1.1K	517	663	-146	open	—	07-11 00:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	177	$991	1,526	1,508	+18	open	—	06-30 11:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	108	$939	495	631	-137	open	—	07-28 01:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	98	$909	482	438	+44	open	—	06-27 15:42
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	142	$856	1,488	1,478	+10	open	—	07-11 00:23
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	43	$845	464	414	+50	open	—	06-30 20:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	154	$802	630	651	-21	open	—	07-11 00:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	45	$523	347	215	+133	open	—	06-19 20:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	59	$486	534	304	+230	open	—	06-17 23:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	52	$471	294	205	+89	open	—	06-02 15:10
Trump out as President by June 30?	19	$457	262	199	+63	open	—	06-29 07:53
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	26	$436	217	263	-46	open	—	07-11 00:19
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	54	$392	197	218	-22	open	—	07-11 00:20
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	207	$383	1,851	1,744	+107	open	—	06-30 07:03
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	29	$365	252	281	-29	open	—	07-11 00:19
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	31	$333	243	153	+89	open	—	06-17 23:45
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	29	$328	231	231	-0	open	—	07-11 00:25
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	41	$327	193	164	+29	open	—	07-01 10:09
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	20	$317	183	138	+45	open	—	06-26 18:21
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	127	$305	361	361	+0	open	—	06-08 14:11
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	28	$304	231	79	+152	open	—	05-30 06:07
Iran Nuke before 2027?	35	$289	147	160	-13	open	—	07-11 00:20
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	16	$282	147	136	+11	open	—	06-30 05:14
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	38	$281	158	158	+0	open	—	07-11 00:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	91	$272	705	707	-1	open	—	06-21 12:25
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	45	$268	269	187	+82	open	—	06-19 20:56
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	16	$267	136	136	+0	open	—	07-11 00:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-28 01:24:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x33585b…
07-27 19:54:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x68b440…
07-27 19:19:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0xebd504…
07-27 19:19:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xe26c05…
07-27 18:19:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc2741c…
07-27 18:05:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xfa813e…
07-27 16:49:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xe1d84c…
07-27 16:34:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x989e3d…
07-20 16:22:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xd1fc7c…
07-20 16:20:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x8c8c4b…
07-20 15:29:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xe9c32c…
07-20 15:16:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xf51776…
07-20 08:13:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xbd549a…
07-20 01:32:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x469f83…
07-20 00:59:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xbcfcd9…
07-20 00:14:40	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xd3f928…
07-19 18:54:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x2a41aa…
07-19 04:06:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x699e94…
07-19 02:29:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xa57dc0…
07-19 02:25:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x96e8e8…
07-17 04:33:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x3e82a0…
07-17 02:38:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xdd596c…
07-16 23:56:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x9b9066…
07-16 23:42:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xf53f40…
07-16 22:16:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xa86017…
07-16 22:10:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x58ade7…
07-16 22:00:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x02774a…
07-16 21:40:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xf1aba7…
07-16 21:16:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xcf42f6…
07-16 17:06:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x2c1609…
07-16 09:23:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x080ca0…
07-16 08:53:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x35b8c2…
07-16 04:19:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x85b912…
07-16 02:25:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xfcbb3b…
07-16 02:09:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x4fe775…
07-16 01:18:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xa8b529…
07-16 01:14:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x3a5d32…
07-14 12:35:32	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x5879cf…
07-11 16:07:25	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x923667…
07-11 15:45:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x6ab547…
07-11 13:17:43	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x7c7304…
07-11 11:13:28	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x57d261…
07-11 05:44:26	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0x34ee3d…
07-11 00:26:47	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6367ab…
07-11 00:26:05	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x06ab4e…
07-11 00:26:01	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	54¢	$4	0x2fb3ee…
07-11 00:25:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	6	76¢	$4	0xd22f3c…
07-11 00:25:44	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x6e57bd…
07-11 00:25:41	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xdcd174…
07-11 00:25:38	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xadb411…
07-11 00:25:35	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x1eea1c…
07-11 00:25:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x8c1ae2…
07-11 00:25:31	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x896e19…
07-11 00:25:26	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x314ce0…
07-11 00:25:16	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0xe39c41…
07-11 00:25:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x9f0a93…
07-11 00:25:07	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x2a90e2…
07-11 00:25:05	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	6	89¢	$6	0xac51b0…
07-11 00:25:01	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa81c26…
07-11 00:24:58	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6988ed…
07-11 00:24:52	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xe3dd56…
07-11 00:24:41	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0x2b7629…
07-11 00:24:38	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xc82f94…
07-11 00:24:34	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x47c557…
07-11 00:24:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0x7bbb91…
07-11 00:24:26	jd vance out as vp by december 31	No	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0xd3ee84…
07-11 00:24:26	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7c8093…
07-11 00:24:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	11	62¢	$7	0x53786f…
07-11 00:24:19	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xfd4ad9…
07-11 00:24:14	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	9	82¢	$7	0x54dff1…
07-11 00:24:10	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0xbc1fdd…
07-11 00:24:08	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$7	0x34b0b1…
07-11 00:24:05	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x8bfc66…
07-11 00:23:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x03024c…
07-11 00:23:50	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	14	62¢	$9	0x57a5c8…
07-11 00:23:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	11	77¢	$9	0x11b0de…
07-11 00:23:46	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0xa0eec7…
07-11 00:23:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	14	67¢	$9	0xa4c35a…
07-11 00:23:22	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x5ed01c…
07-11 00:23:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	11	86¢	$10	0x82cf6f…
07-11 00:23:11	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x095dda…
07-11 00:23:08	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x6271df…
07-11 00:23:02	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xaed20c…
07-11 00:22:59	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x21182d…
07-11 00:22:53	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	89¢	$11	0xd59380…
07-11 00:22:47	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0xb41872…
07-11 00:22:46	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x32fdbd…
07-11 00:22:43	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0xb1a91f…
07-11 00:22:40	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0xf10189…
07-11 00:22:35	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	78¢	$12	0xc58774…
07-11 00:22:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	16	76¢	$12	0x29d37d…
07-11 00:22:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x073ce2…
07-11 00:22:16	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xf28885…
07-11 00:22:04	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	21	62¢	$13	0x165370…
07-11 00:21:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	91¢	$16	0x898233…
07-11 00:21:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	21	77¢	$16	0xf7b8da…
07-11 00:21:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	86¢	$18	0x1bfddf…
07-11 00:21:43	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xba7694…
07-11 00:21:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0xfce0c9…
07-11 00:21:25	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x5ae57e…