Secondary-Procedure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

53.9%

Resolved

Trades

3,415

lifetime

Volume

$28.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$75

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 06-18 16:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

86% 33% +$2

Other

13% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+195	$55	26¢	$50	$-5	05-28 15:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+26	$11	66¢	$17	+$6	05-29 14:47
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	+26	$14	30¢	$8	$-6	05-29 14:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	213	$2.8K	1,854	1,854	+0	open	—	03-26 23:47
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	136	$2.0K	1,489	1,382	+107	open	—	02-27 17:04
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	302	$1.6K	1,644	1,560	+84	open	—	02-28 01:57
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	122	$1.5K	1,216	1,170	+46	open	—	04-30 06:01
will uk strike iran by march 31	73	$1.3K	758	758	+0	open	—	03-24 03:58
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	109	$1.2K	1,283	1,320	-37	open	—	04-11 12:24
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	103	$1.2K	1,184	1,223	-39	open	—	04-11 12:24
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	184	$1.2K	1,355	1,271	+84	open	—	02-28 01:57
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	100	$1.1K	890	576	+314	open	—	02-27 15:43
will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	103	$1.0K	872	821	+51	open	—	03-30 14:34
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?	137	$859	962	902	+59	open	—	02-28 01:57
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	276	$837	2,498	2,496	+2	open	—	03-26 23:47
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	122	$826	1,213	1,163	+50	open	—	04-30 06:01
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	55	$810	587	587	+0	open	—	04-12 19:25
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	102	$792	812	753	+59	open	—	02-28 01:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	41	$744	464	504	-40	open	—	04-20 12:57
iran strike on israel by february 28	132	$668	1,426	1,319	+107	open	—	02-27 17:04
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	97	$602	824	774	+50	open	—	03-30 14:34
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	74	$588	450	568	-118	open	—	02-28 01:04
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?	99	$440	517	629	-112	open	—	02-28 01:04
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	52	$322	539	539	+0	open	—	04-12 19:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	70	$311	501	501	+0	Yes	$-1	04-26 07:23
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	21	$297	160	160	+0	Yes	+$7	05-06 09:31
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	14	$283	167	167	+0	open	—	03-24 01:36
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	43	$265	243	243	+0	open	—	02-27 16:22
iran strike on us military by february 28	94	$232	838	525	+313	open	—	02-27 15:43
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	40	$230	483	430	+53	open	—	04-12 19:26
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	26	$214	135	126	+9	open	—	05-23 22:34
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	5	$208	76	235	-159	open	—	05-29 14:57
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	24	$206	160	119	+41	open	—	03-30 15:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 16:01:10	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	SELL	31	20¢	$6	0x19f0cb…
06-07 20:07:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	192	3¢	$7	0x4e621b…
06-06 09:37:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	51	65¢	$33	0xed44bb…
06-05 19:16:10	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	458	1¢	$5	0xa679e7…
06-05 19:11:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	192	3¢	$5	0x615292…
06-05 19:09:31	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xff9d43…
06-05 19:03:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xfe28fe…
05-29 14:57:58	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	31	83¢	$26	0xd600f4…
05-29 14:57:57	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xb30c18…
05-29 14:47:55	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	51¢	$23	0x707d51…
05-29 14:47:51	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xf85c17…
05-29 14:47:46	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	61	47¢	$29	0x77988c…
05-29 14:47:46	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x4dbb9b…
05-29 14:47:35	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	52¢	$17	0xe981e2…
05-29 14:47:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	32	47¢	$15	0xdb32db…
05-29 08:54:33	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0x768331…
05-29 08:54:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x1d9eb4…
05-29 05:18:57	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	17¢	$8	0x9cefee…
05-29 05:18:57	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	45	82¢	$37	0x8e09f6…
05-29 05:18:45	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	32	76¢	$24	0xd79378…
05-29 05:18:36	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	23¢	$9	0xda14b4…
05-29 05:18:36	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0xc2e3d3…
05-29 03:47:26	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x8c665f…
05-29 03:47:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x8b2192…
05-29 03:43:07	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	52¢	$17	0xe64aba…
05-29 03:43:05	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	32	46¢	$15	0xa638a6…
05-29 03:42:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	68¢	$14	0xc554f4…
05-29 03:42:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	69¢	$13	0xe8105e…
05-29 02:53:41	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xdef397…
05-29 02:53:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x505c4f…
05-29 02:53:32	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	17¢	$2	0xd0f5bf…
05-29 02:53:32	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0xb6ee4a…
05-28 23:58:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0x2d267f…
05-28 23:58:30	Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xc8dcb6…
05-28 23:58:30	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x5c6de3…
05-28 23:33:37	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x5954fa…
05-28 23:33:37	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x589049…
05-28 23:33:23	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	16¢	$2	0xbd10c8…
05-28 23:33:23	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x249408…
05-28 20:12:29	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	52¢	$32	0xa1ccda…
05-28 20:12:28	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	61	46¢	$28	0xcd7989…
05-28 20:12:24	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x490b5f…
05-28 20:12:14	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0xb55dd6…
05-28 20:12:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0xa645eb…
05-28 15:03:53	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0xee1723…
05-28 15:03:21	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	85	28¢	$24	0x2b6e7e…
05-28 15:03:16	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0xa96067…
05-28 15:03:16	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0x7994a3…
05-28 15:03:14	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xba44db…
05-28 15:03:12	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0xa9d654…
05-28 15:03:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x8c0ae6…
05-28 15:03:09	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	91	12¢	$11	0x76de47…
05-28 15:03:07	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	58	11¢	$6	0x4f59b0…
05-28 15:03:05	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	53	13¢	$7	0xd7a0f2…
05-28 15:02:58	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0xdbef17…
05-28 15:02:58	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	210	83¢	$174	0x901cfd…
05-27 22:33:17	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xb7fe30…
05-27 22:32:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x8d7b44…
05-27 22:00:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x109c57…
05-27 22:00:15	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xe8aa02…
05-27 22:00:15	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x51bb8a…
05-27 22:00:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x9ba085…
05-27 22:00:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	68¢	$8	0xd3d1ce…
05-27 21:29:35	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xdfcc1e…
05-27 21:29:06	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x62e130…
05-27 21:29:04	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xf7b1b0…
05-27 21:28:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x7f2364…
05-27 21:02:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x706579…
05-27 21:02:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x25646f…
05-27 21:02:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	73¢	$33	0x5d9bf9…
05-23 22:34:19	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x6c0ec3…
05-23 22:34:17	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x5e204a…
05-23 18:59:22	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0x82fa7e…
05-23 18:59:22	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x30076c…
05-21 12:16:15	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0x6492ec…
05-21 12:16:15	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0x0c96ce…
05-21 12:16:11	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xd5ca71…
05-21 12:16:11	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x9e7083…
05-21 12:16:06	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0xd50158…
05-21 12:16:06	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0xbc22b7…
05-20 22:37:50	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x727619…
05-20 22:37:50	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	19¢	$3	0x0725ef…
05-20 20:33:01	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xb02ca8…
05-20 20:33:01	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x74c93a…
05-20 18:24:19	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xeb5a48…
05-20 18:24:19	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0xb0a5ec…
05-20 15:30:22	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xceeb81…
05-20 15:30:20	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x9f12b9…
05-20 11:50:02	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x1e7e39…
05-20 11:49:59	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xf90fa9…
05-20 11:49:57	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0xdba116…
05-20 10:23:05	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0xb60c62…
05-20 10:23:05	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	No	SELL	9	87¢	$8	0x086592…
05-20 10:22:30	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	SELL	32	12¢	$4	0xfe38bc…
05-20 10:22:30	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	No	SELL	32	88¢	$28	0x52ab5e…
05-20 10:22:25	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0xe681f0…
05-20 10:22:25	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x8f50ea…
05-20 10:18:04	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x61754b…
05-20 10:18:04	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x5066f2…
05-20 10:13:09	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xe2b215…