Forsaken-Outhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.23K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.5%

Resolved

Trades

13,750

lifetime

Volume

$10.0M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$729

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-08 14:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

59% 33% $-1,885

Other

35% 86% +$92

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$564

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 86 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	164	$737.9K	471,500	271,500	+200,000	open	—	04-08 21:09
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	356	$517.9K	452,087	83,650	+368,436	open	—	03-04 19:09
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	229	$459.1K	445,883	21,701	+424,182	open	—	04-09 09:46
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	34	$294.7K	256,393	40,000	+216,393	open	—	06-03 21:41
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	30	$280.0K	255,800	25,000	+230,800	open	—	01-03 22:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	219	$276.6K	137,500	142,500	-5,000	open	—	04-29 16:50
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	104	$253.2K	160,052	97,042	+63,010	open	—	02-01 06:13
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	49	$244.1K	210,000	35,000	+175,000	open	—	04-20 16:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	199	$205.0K	179,218	34,247	+144,970	open	—	03-03 19:39
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	358	$198.5K	191,278	30,877	+160,401	open	—	02-03 19:20
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	65	$188.6K	189,486	0	+189,486	open	—	03-04 01:02
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	51	$188.5K	185,505	6,005	+179,500	open	—	04-30 21:32
netanyahu out by march 31 854	167	$183.6K	124,374	67,361	+57,013	open	—	03-26 00:30
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	157	$181.5K	152,351	32,351	+120,000	open	—	03-12 01:28
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	28	$155.9K	131,454	25,463	+105,991	open	—	01-04 00:06
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	117	$148.1K	125,987	30,559	+95,428	open	—	04-22 18:35
will gta 6 cost 100	46	$139.7K	90,000	50,000	+40,000	open	—	02-28 23:40
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	12	$134.8K	70,000	65,000	+5,000	open	—	04-22 02:01
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	63	$128.9K	73,965	55,643	+18,322	open	—	04-06 21:02
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	15	$127.1K	82,271	45,000	+37,271	open	—	02-10 00:53
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	247	$110.7K	114,000	5,500	+108,500	open	—	03-31 00:30
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	142	$110.2K	80,554	33,244	+47,310	open	—	03-31 19:16
will iran strike israel on march 6	21	$106.7K	106,000	1,000	+105,000	open	—	03-11 10:34
Will Trump dance today?	10	$99.8K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	04-28 22:27
will trump say unbelievable or fantastic or incredible 10 times during panthers visit	18	$91.9K	92,056	0	+92,056	open	—	01-18 18:37
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	34	$89.7K	55,000	35,000	+20,000	open	—	04-30 06:36
us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	2	$84.9K	85,000	0	+85,000	open	—	07-01 05:33
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	43	$82.2K	72,677	10,000	+62,678	open	—	03-02 05:04
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	15	$79.8K	80,000	0	+80,000	Yes	+$235	05-03 19:03
Trump out as President by April 30?	81	$78.8K	40,000	40,000	+0	open	—	04-30 20:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 14:09:31	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	888	35¢	$311	0x2ebf63…
08-08 02:17:58	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x1f5994…
08-08 02:17:19	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	90	35¢	$31	0x9d0be5…
08-08 02:17:06	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x62e309…
08-08 01:09:28	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x13c414…
08-08 00:35:34	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0xda63f3…
08-07 20:17:06	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	269	52¢	$140	0xd9d76e…
08-07 19:12:48	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	62	52¢	$32	0xda2b5d…
08-07 19:05:45	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0xb7a378…
08-07 19:05:39	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0x791988…
08-07 19:05:00	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0x53a120…
08-07 18:00:04	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x45865c…
08-07 18:00:01	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x771012…
08-07 17:37:39	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x20b7c5…
08-06 20:55:38	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	Yes	BUY	41	29¢	$12	0xb1e430…
08-06 20:54:26	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	Yes	BUY	250	31¢	$76	0x685d08…
08-06 20:47:50	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	Yes	BUY	250	34¢	$85	0x092eeb…
08-04 21:58:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	904	85¢	$768	0xbbee7f…
08-03 19:46:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	152	97¢	$147	0x919d66…
08-03 19:45:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x9e34dd…
08-03 18:39:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$966	0x26f128…
08-03 17:10:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,000	38¢	$380	0xdb6b09…
08-02 18:17:21	H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$18	0xbef932…
08-02 13:37:39	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x1a5757…
08-02 13:37:35	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xfd41f4…
08-02 13:37:27	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xa007fa…
08-02 13:37:18	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xf6c7e2…
08-02 13:37:12	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0xf194fd…
08-02 13:37:08	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xe6c2f8…
08-02 04:25:50	H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xa01dd2…
07-31 19:57:47	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	500	59¢	$295	0x579479…
07-31 19:57:44	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	500	59¢	$295	0xc61073…
07-31 19:54:26	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	1,681	41¢	$689	0x6deb78…
07-31 19:54:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0x72cfe0…
07-31 19:50:50	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	1,000	36¢	$360	0x35eeb0…
07-31 19:46:47	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	1,000	43¢	$430	0x928396…
07-31 19:46:06	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	196	47¢	$92	0xc7c3d2…
07-31 19:38:23	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	334	87¢	$291	0x9ff8e7…
07-31 19:38:12	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x709864…
07-31 19:38:12	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x0f277e…
07-31 19:38:11	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	166	87¢	$144	0xc7a458…
07-31 19:32:05	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	4,532	99¢	$4,505	0x005290…
07-31 19:32:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x88cd1a…
07-31 19:32:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x676d6d…
07-31 19:32:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	246	99¢	$244	0x4b7634…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	12	99¢	$11	0xec2eb9…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc76909…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xc6b426…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	55	99¢	$55	0xba3a65…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0xb02558…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xaa9fbe…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x9cc1de…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x582324…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x359f5f…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x160c9c…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x1509a0…
07-31 19:32:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x11c6e0…
07-31 19:31:11	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	5,000	98¢	$4,925	0x2ca675…
07-31 18:21:47	H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	1,278	94¢	$1,201	0x673f2d…
07-31 03:34:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,000	71¢	$710	0x805cca…
07-30 21:24:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	795	77¢	$612	0x76049c…
07-30 21:24:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x0ee62e…
07-30 21:12:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x748c60…
07-30 21:00:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	11	77¢	$8	0x67fcb5…
07-30 00:25:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xa90f5d…
07-30 00:25:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x4c8741…
07-30 00:14:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x3587bc…
07-30 00:13:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	33	77¢	$26	0x1f71a7…
07-30 00:12:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xd02587…
07-30 00:03:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x1e3f62…
07-29 23:54:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xa9e13f…
07-29 23:51:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	129	77¢	$99	0x9041ed…
07-22 15:45:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0x2afa61…
07-22 03:55:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	322	72¢	$232	0x558870…
07-22 03:55:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	27	72¢	$20	0xca4f0e…
07-22 03:53:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0x688c4b…
07-22 03:40:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0x0d79a6…
07-22 03:38:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	26	72¢	$18	0x57bf52…
07-22 03:23:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xba5bbe…
07-22 03:21:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x988750…
07-22 03:19:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0xde3581…
07-22 03:17:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x4f250a…
07-22 02:47:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x83a83a…
07-22 02:47:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	26	72¢	$19	0xcc98c4…
07-22 02:45:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xcbd878…
07-22 02:39:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x839efd…
07-22 02:37:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0x7453b3…
07-22 02:36:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	27	72¢	$19	0xdb2244…
07-22 02:31:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0xf795ac…
07-22 02:27:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x5aeb7d…
07-22 02:27:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0x4696aa…
07-22 02:20:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	166	72¢	$119	0x7f0b08…
07-22 02:18:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0xab065a…
07-22 02:11:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xad1f1f…
07-22 02:09:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	19	72¢	$14	0x957628…
07-22 02:02:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x9cc2d1…
07-22 02:02:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0xbe04cd…
07-22 02:00:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xeea64a…
07-22 01:57:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	103	72¢	$74	0xc723d0…
07-21 20:21:24	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0xe7fb6e…