Realized P&L
-$15.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.66K
Hit rate
83.5%
Resolved
8
Trades
982
lifetime
Volume
$1.43M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.46K
Open exposure
$425.1K
26 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 06-29 02:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Other
61%
100%
+$304
Politics
39%
75%
$-15,735
Tech
0%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
35 active days in 12wk
• peak 85 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | +81,958 | $81,034 | 100¢ | $81.9K | +$842 | 06-24 02:23 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +68,536 | $66,900 | 100¢ | $68.5K | +$1,568 | 06-23 03:10 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | +48,553 | $48,151 | 100¢ | $48.5K | +$305 | 06-27 15:34 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | +39,043 | $38,190 | 100¢ | $39.0K | +$775 | 06-23 02:59 | |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | +25,630 | $25,071 | 100¢ | $25.6K | +$533 | 06-02 23:12 | |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | No | +23,995 | $23,808 | 100¢ | $23.9K | +$80 | 06-29 02:43 | |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? | No | +22,344 | $22,025 | 100¢ | $22.3K | +$297 | 06-23 05:26 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | +20,000 | $19,940 | 100¢ | $20.0K | +$40 | 06-23 03:27 | |
| Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? | No | +14,549 | $14,181 | 99¢ | $14.4K | +$245 | 06-27 15:33 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | No | +13,000 | $12,948 | 100¢ | $13.0K | +$39 | 06-23 03:31 | |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | +11,761 | $11,595 | 100¢ | $11.7K | +$149 | 06-03 04:53 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | No | +10,000 | $9,970 | 100¢ | $10.0K | +$20 | 06-23 03:04 | |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | +8,598 | $7,481 | 90¢ | $7.7K | +$258 | 06-29 00:55 | |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | No | +7,603 | $7,528 | 100¢ | $7.6K | +$52 | 06-23 03:58 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | No | +6,938 | $6,665 | 100¢ | $6.9K | +$248 | 06-27 15:55 | |
| Will Trump attend NATO Summit? | Yes | +5,421 | $5,333 | 98¢ | $5.3K | +$7 | 06-29 02:42 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | +5,000 | $4,985 | 100¢ | $5.0K | +$2 | 06-23 03:24 | |
| Jimmy Lai released by June 30? | No | +4,689 | $4,595 | 100¢ | $4.7K | +$84 | 06-01 07:30 | |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? | No | +2,653 | $2,641 | 100¢ | $2.6K | +$6 | 06-23 03:09 | |
| Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? | No | +2,048 | $2,007 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$38 | 06-03 17:43 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | No | +1,600 | $1,594 | 100¢ | $1.6K | +$5 | 06-23 03:31 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,200 | $1,068 | 92¢ | $1.1K | +$30 | 06-02 02:06 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | +819 | $803 | 100¢ | $818 | +$16 | 06-03 11:53 | |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | No | +480 | $468 | 100¢ | $480 | +$12 | 06-02 04:17 | |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | No | +426 | $410 | 99¢ | $420 | +$10 | 06-03 06:41 | |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? | No | +10 | $10 | 100¢ | $10 | +$0 | 06-01 06:41 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 42 | $173.2K | 88,000 | 87,000 | +1,000 | open | — | 05-15 17:05 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | 9 | $81.0K | 81,958 | 0 | +81,958 | open | — | 06-24 02:23 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 75 | $75.2K | 76,497 | 0 | +76,497 | open | — | 05-26 04:06 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 23 | $66.9K | 68,536 | 0 | +68,536 | open | — | 06-23 03:10 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | 12 | $65.1K | 57,288 | 10,000 | +47,288 | open | — | 05-31 13:02 |
| Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? | 53 | $60.0K | 60,395 | 0 | +60,395 | open | — | 05-16 10:31 |
| Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? | 34 | $56.0K | 34,682 | 21,508 | +13,173 | open | — | 05-15 08:33 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | 31 | $55.3K | 47,331 | 10,000 | +37,331 | open | — | 05-31 03:33 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | 23 | $48.2K | 48,553 | 0 | +48,553 | open | — | 06-27 15:34 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 57 | $43.1K | 45,733 | 0 | +45,733 | open | — | 05-30 11:58 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 46 | $39.0K | 41,777 | 0 | +41,777 | open | — | 05-17 14:12 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | 29 | $38.2K | 39,043 | 0 | +39,043 | open | — | 06-23 02:59 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 20 | $37.3K | 18,700 | 18,700 | +0 | open | — | 05-08 10:52 |
| Starmer out by June 15, 2026? | 8 | $34.3K | 35,266 | 0 | +35,266 | open | — | 06-03 02:15 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 58 | $34.0K | 31,000 | 5,000 | +26,000 | open | — | 05-11 07:46 |
| Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? | 30 | $31.6K | 32,379 | 0 | +32,379 | open | — | 05-15 06:43 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 6 | $31.4K | 31,800 | 0 | +31,800 | open | — | 05-18 13:11 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | 42 | $25.8K | 25,872 | 0 | +25,872 | No | +$90 | 05-11 19:35 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 10 | $25.1K | 25,630 | 0 | +25,630 | open | — | 06-02 23:12 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | 7 | $23.8K | 23,995 | 0 | +23,995 | open | — | 06-29 02:43 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | 30 | $23.3K | 23,807 | 0 | +23,807 | No | +$513 | 05-08 13:28 |
| Netanyahu out by May 31? | 9 | $23.2K | 23,476 | 0 | +23,476 | open | — | 05-18 06:55 |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? | 12 | $22.0K | 22,344 | 0 | +22,344 | open | — | 06-23 05:26 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | 2 | $19.9K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | open | — | 06-23 03:27 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? | 9 | $19.0K | 19,780 | 0 | +19,780 | No | +$790 | 05-08 13:05 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 5 | $17.1K | 18,000 | 0 | +18,000 | Yes | $-17,129 | 05-04 17:15 |
| Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? | 9 | $16.1K | 16,239 | 0 | +16,239 | open | — | 05-21 02:23 |
| US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? | 25 | $15.5K | 15,671 | 0 | +15,671 | open | — | 05-23 07:58 |
| Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? | 15 | $14.2K | 14,549 | 0 | +14,549 | open | — | 06-27 15:33 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | 60 | $14.1K | 14,237 | 0 | +14,237 | open | — | 05-14 07:38 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||