Realized P&L
-$15.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.43K
Hit rate
83.5%
Resolved
8
Trades
911
lifetime
Volume
$1.22M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.34K
Open exposure
$237.5K
24 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 06-09 12:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Other
60%
100%
+$304
Politics
40%
75%
$-15,735
Tech
0%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk
• peak 85 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +46,036 | $44,490 | 97¢ | $44.6K | +$142 | 06-09 12:39 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | +40,058 | $39,355 | 99¢ | $39.7K | +$322 | 06-03 05:47 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | +34,043 | $33,215 | 98¢ | $33.4K | +$232 | 06-03 16:27 | |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | +25,630 | $25,071 | 98¢ | $25.2K | +$110 | 06-02 23:12 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | +20,000 | $19,700 | 99¢ | $19.8K | +$80 | 06-03 19:32 | |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? | No | +19,339 | $19,029 | 98¢ | $19.0K | $-38 | 06-02 12:54 | |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | +11,761 | $11,595 | 99¢ | $11.6K | +$55 | 06-03 04:53 | |
| Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? | No | +10,123 | $9,714 | 99¢ | $10.0K | +$267 | 06-02 18:04 | |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | +7,618 | $6,608 | 90¢ | $6.9K | +$248 | 06-03 17:07 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | No | +6,224 | $5,956 | 98¢ | $6.1K | +$128 | 06-01 09:11 | |
| Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? | No | +6,316 | $6,038 | 92¢ | $5.8K | $-218 | 06-03 07:35 | |
| Jimmy Lai released by June 30? | No | +4,689 | $4,595 | 99¢ | $4.6K | +$42 | 06-01 07:30 | |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | No | +3,800 | $3,741 | 99¢ | $3.8K | +$12 | 06-02 12:51 | |
| Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? | No | +2,048 | $2,007 | 98¢ | $2.0K | +$3 | 06-03 17:43 | |
| Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | Yes | +1,402 | $1,374 | 98¢ | $1.4K | $-3 | 06-02 06:46 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,200 | $1,068 | 88¢ | $1.1K | $-6 | 06-02 02:06 | |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | +900 | $801 | 94¢ | $842 | +$40 | 06-02 03:38 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | +819 | $803 | 99¢ | $813 | +$10 | 06-03 11:53 | |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | No | +480 | $468 | 98¢ | $471 | +$3 | 06-02 04:17 | |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | No | +426 | $410 | 96¢ | $408 | $-2 | 06-03 06:41 | |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? | No | +10 | $10 | 99¢ | $10 | +$0 | 06-01 06:41 | |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? | No | +10 | $10 | 98¢ | $10 | $-0 | 05-31 13:43 | |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? | No | +5 | $5 | 98¢ | $5 | +$0 | 06-01 06:49 | |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | No | +2 | $2 | 95¢ | $2 | +$0 | 06-02 04:01 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 42 | $173.2K | 88,000 | 87,000 | +1,000 | open | — | 05-15 17:05 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 75 | $75.2K | 76,497 | 0 | +76,497 | open | — | 05-26 04:06 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | 12 | $65.1K | 57,288 | 10,000 | +47,288 | open | — | 05-31 13:02 |
| Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? | 53 | $60.0K | 60,395 | 0 | +60,395 | open | — | 05-16 10:31 |
| Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? | 34 | $56.0K | 34,682 | 21,508 | +13,173 | open | — | 05-15 08:33 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | 31 | $55.3K | 47,331 | 10,000 | +37,331 | open | — | 05-31 03:33 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 21 | $44.5K | 46,036 | 0 | +46,036 | open | — | 06-09 12:39 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 57 | $43.1K | 45,733 | 0 | +45,733 | open | — | 05-30 11:58 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | 6 | $39.4K | 40,058 | 0 | +40,058 | open | — | 06-03 05:47 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 46 | $39.0K | 41,777 | 0 | +41,777 | open | — | 05-17 14:12 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 20 | $37.3K | 18,700 | 18,700 | +0 | open | — | 05-08 10:52 |
| Starmer out by June 15, 2026? | 8 | $34.3K | 35,266 | 0 | +35,266 | open | — | 06-03 02:15 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 58 | $34.0K | 31,000 | 5,000 | +26,000 | open | — | 05-11 07:46 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | 28 | $33.2K | 34,043 | 0 | +34,043 | open | — | 06-03 16:27 |
| Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? | 30 | $31.6K | 32,379 | 0 | +32,379 | open | — | 05-15 06:43 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 6 | $31.4K | 31,800 | 0 | +31,800 | open | — | 05-18 13:11 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | 42 | $25.8K | 25,872 | 0 | +25,872 | No | +$90 | 05-11 19:35 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 10 | $25.1K | 25,630 | 0 | +25,630 | open | — | 06-02 23:12 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | 30 | $23.3K | 23,807 | 0 | +23,807 | No | +$513 | 05-08 13:28 |
| Netanyahu out by May 31? | 9 | $23.2K | 23,476 | 0 | +23,476 | open | — | 05-18 06:55 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | 4 | $19.7K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | open | — | 06-03 19:32 |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? | 6 | $19.0K | 19,339 | 0 | +19,339 | open | — | 06-02 12:54 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? | 9 | $19.0K | 19,780 | 0 | +19,780 | No | +$790 | 05-08 13:05 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 5 | $17.1K | 18,000 | 0 | +18,000 | Yes | $-17,129 | 05-04 17:15 |
| Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? | 9 | $16.1K | 16,239 | 0 | +16,239 | open | — | 05-21 02:23 |
| US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? | 25 | $15.5K | 15,671 | 0 | +15,671 | open | — | 05-23 07:58 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | 60 | $14.1K | 14,237 | 0 | +14,237 | open | — | 05-14 07:38 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | 17 | $13.3K | 13,477 | 0 | +13,477 | open | — | 05-31 09:43 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | 7 | $11.6K | 11,761 | 0 | +11,761 | open | — | 06-03 04:53 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | 2 | $10.0K | 10,032 | 0 | +10,032 | open | — | 04-30 06:26 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 58 | $535.7K | 6,915 | 06-10 03:17 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | 53 | $7.27K | 2,891 | 06-10 01:21 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | 51 | $6.80K | 2,966 | 06-10 00:53 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | 47 | $113.9K | 9,357 | 06-10 00:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x22f1…6415 | 45 | $71.1K | 7,654 | 06-09 23:56 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | 45 | $3.60K | 462 | 06-06 16:54 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 45 | $3.26K | 666 | 06-10 00:38 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 43 | $11.9M | 12,910 | 06-08 05:05 |