Realized P&L
+$62.9K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.43K
Hit rate
97.9%
Resolved
793
Trades
9,552
lifetime
Volume
$10.5M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.10K
Open exposure
$1.13M
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 10-24 06:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 125 days
Categories
Other
57% 97% +$50,677
Politics
36% 96% -$2,223
Sports
3% 95% +$7,696
Tech
3% 98% +$5,437
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$1,339
Crypto
0% 100% +$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 668 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +95,000 $89,450 94¢ $88.8K -$625 10-14 04:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +78,000 $63,830 80¢ $62.8K -$1,040 07-18 09:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +73,608 $60,164 84¢ $61.5K +$1,298 08-06 02:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +59,551 $58,155 100¢ $59.3K +$1,188 10-20 16:08
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +77,397 $72,622 76¢ $58.7K -$13,878 10-13 16:20
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +57,859 $53,532 94¢ $54.7K +$1,145 10-20 16:12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? No +53,800 $52,966 99¢ $53.4K +$457 10-14 04:12
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +56,739 $48,834 94¢ $53.1K +$4,218 09-10 12:10
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +53,000 $49,840 94¢ $50.1K +$245 10-11 15:52
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +52,037 $47,553 94¢ $49.2K +$1,622 10-20 16:12
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +40,526 $39,513 100¢ $40.4K +$911 10-24 06:40
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? No +43,789 $39,396 92¢ $40.1K +$671 10-20 16:01
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +40,789 $39,795 98¢ $40.0K +$158 10-08 02:24
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +42,808 $37,779 86¢ $36.6K -$1,178 10-11 15:53
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +48,326 $44,848 75¢ $36.2K -$8,604 10-24 06:38
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +34,477 $32,662 96¢ $33.2K +$574 10-13 08:43
Iran leadership change by October 31? No +32,694 $32,105 99¢ $32.5K +$376 10-24 06:38
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes +31,784 $30,274 100¢ $31.7K +$1,399 10-24 06:39
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +31,094 $29,023 90¢ $27.8K -$1,193 10-13 08:44
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +26,227 $24,444 99¢ $26.0K +$1,508 10-13 08:44
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? No +22,400 $21,809 99¢ $22.2K +$378 10-13 08:44
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +22,000 $20,894 96¢ $21.1K +$171 10-06 18:15
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No +21,765 $19,698 96¢ $21.0K +$1,305 10-20 16:10
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +21,200 $19,942 98¢ $20.9K +$940 10-13 16:50
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +21,800 $19,372 94¢ $20.6K +$1,229 09-17 02:12
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +23,000 $19,600 86¢ $19.7K +$76 10-08 12:22
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No +18,200 $16,182 95¢ $17.3K +$1,108 10-06 16:59
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +17,519 $15,095 98¢ $17.2K +$2,074 10-24 06:38
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +17,895 $15,307 96¢ $17.1K +$1,783 09-21 14:07
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +15,879 $15,131 97¢ $15.4K +$248 10-04 21:41