Realized P&L (90d)
+$27.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$15.9K
Hit rate
97.2%
Resolved (90d)
596
Trades (90d)
5,488
9,545 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$5.97M
$10.4M lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.09K
Open exposure
$1.13M
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 10-30 02:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 129 days
Categories
Other
57% 97% +$60,899
Politics
36% 96% -$2,034
Sports
3% 95% +$7,949
Tech
3% 98% +$5,437
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$1,339
Crypto
0% 100% +$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
72 active days in 12wk • peak 668 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +95,000 $89,450 94¢ $89.8K +$325 10-14 04:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? No +81,338 $80,388 100¢ $81.2K +$829 10-30 02:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +78,000 $63,830 82¢ $64.3K +$520 07-18 09:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +73,608 $60,164 84¢ $61.5K +$1,298 08-06 02:19
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +63,888 $59,259 94¢ $60.4K +$1,115 10-27 02:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +59,551 $58,155 100¢ $59.5K +$1,337 10-20 16:08
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +56,739 $48,834 96¢ $54.8K +$5,920 09-10 12:10
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +53,000 $49,840 94¢ $49.6K -$285 10-11 15:52
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +52,037 $47,553 92¢ $48.1K +$582 10-20 16:12
Iran leadership change by October 31? No +45,694 $45,027 99¢ $45.2K +$141 10-27 02:39
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +43,322 $42,284 96¢ $41.8K -$479 10-27 02:24
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +48,326 $44,848 84¢ $40.4K -$4,496 10-24 06:38
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? No +43,789 $39,396 91¢ $39.8K +$452 10-20 16:01
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +42,808 $37,779 86¢ $36.6K -$1,178 10-11 15:53
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +34,477 $32,662 98¢ $33.7K +$1,005 10-13 08:43
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +34,094 $31,723 94¢ $31.9K +$155 10-27 02:36
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +31,806 $30,462 99¢ $31.5K +$1,073 10-27 02:50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +29,582 $27,782 100¢ $29.5K +$1,712 10-27 02:23
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026 No +28,546 $25,945 100¢ $28.5K +$2,530 10-27 02:25
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? No +22,400 $21,809 99¢ $22.2K +$356 10-13 08:44
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +22,000 $20,894 97¢ $21.3K +$424 10-06 18:15
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No +21,765 $19,698 97¢ $21.1K +$1,403 10-20 16:10
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +21,800 $19,372 90¢ $19.7K +$357 09-17 02:12
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +23,000 $19,600 86¢ $19.7K +$100 10-08 12:22
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? No +19,099 $18,728 100¢ $19.1K +$343 10-27 02:48
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No +18,200 $16,182 94¢ $17.2K +$1,017 10-06 16:59
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +17,895 $15,307 96¢ $17.1K +$1,783 09-21 14:07
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +15,879 $15,131 98¢ $15.5K +$399 10-04 21:41
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +17,560 $15,628 76¢ $13.4K -$2,195 10-11 16:33
Iran leadership change by November 30? No +14,191 $13,512 91¢ $12.9K -$598 10-20 16:07