Realized P&L (7d)
+$11.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$15.2K
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved (7d)
26
Trades (7d)
35
9,580 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$132.9K
$10.6M lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.11K
Open exposure
$1.13M
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 10-30 02:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 129 days
Categories
Other
57% 97% +$60,899
Politics
36% 96% -$2,034
Sports
3% 95% +$7,949
Tech
3% 98% +$5,437
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$1,339
Crypto
0% 100% +$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 668 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +95,000 $89,450 94¢ $89.8K +$325 10-14 04:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? No +81,338 $80,388 100¢ $81.1K +$747 10-30 02:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +78,000 $63,830 82¢ $64.0K +$130 07-18 09:13
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +63,888 $59,259 94¢ $60.4K +$1,115 10-27 02:23
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +73,608 $60,164 82¢ $60.0K -$174 08-06 02:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +59,551 $58,155 100¢ $59.5K +$1,337 10-20 16:08
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +56,739 $48,834 92¢ $52.5K +$3,650 09-10 12:10
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +53,000 $49,840 94¢ $49.6K -$285 10-11 15:52
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +52,037 $47,553 92¢ $48.1K +$582 10-20 16:12
Iran leadership change by October 31? No +45,694 $45,027 100¢ $45.6K +$553 10-27 02:39
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +43,322 $42,284 97¢ $42.1K -$197 10-27 02:24
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +48,326 $44,848 84¢ $40.8K -$4,013 10-24 06:38
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? No +43,789 $39,396 92¢ $40.5K +$1,109 10-20 16:01
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +42,808 $37,779 85¢ $36.4K -$1,392 10-11 15:53
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +34,477 $32,662 97¢ $33.5K +$867 10-13 08:43
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +34,094 $31,723 94¢ $31.9K +$155 10-27 02:36
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +31,806 $30,462 99¢ $31.6K +$1,089 10-27 02:50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +29,582 $27,782 100¢ $29.4K +$1,667 10-27 02:23
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +28,546 $25,945 99¢ $28.3K +$2,373 10-27 02:25
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? No +22,400 $21,809 100¢ $22.3K +$524 10-13 08:44
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +22,000 $20,894 97¢ $21.3K +$391 10-06 18:15
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No +21,765 $19,698 97¢ $21.1K +$1,381 10-20 16:10
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +21,800 $19,372 93¢ $20.3K +$902 09-17 02:12
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +23,000 $19,600 86¢ $19.8K +$249 10-08 12:22
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? No +19,099 $18,728 99¢ $18.9K +$209 10-27 02:48
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No +18,200 $16,182 94¢ $17.2K +$1,017 10-06 16:59
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +17,895 $15,307 96¢ $17.1K +$1,783 09-21 14:07
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +15,879 $15,131 97¢ $15.4K +$312 10-04 21:41
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +17,560 $15,628 85¢ $14.9K -$702 10-11 16:33
Iran leadership change by November 30? No +14,191 $13,512 92¢ $13.0K -$527 10-20 16:07