Realized P&L
+$11
Unrealized P&L
+$185
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
8
Trades
9,309
lifetime
Volume
$128.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$18.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 06-30 09:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
37%
100%
+$6
Crypto
31%
100%
+$1
Other
30%
100%
+$5
Tech
1%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk
• peak 596 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +3,777 | $3,742 | 100¢ | $3.8K | +$31 | 06-29 20:47 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +1,550 | $1,426 | 93¢ | $1.4K | +$9 | 06-24 11:41 | |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | +1,391 | $1,375 | 100¢ | $1.4K | +$15 | 06-20 12:36 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | +1,271 | $1,250 | 100¢ | $1.3K | +$20 | 06-25 14:51 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | +1,200 | $1,190 | 100¢ | $1.2K | +$9 | 06-19 09:26 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +1,100 | $1,080 | 100¢ | $1.1K | +$19 | 06-21 13:27 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | +1,000 | $991 | 100¢ | $997 | +$6 | 06-25 22:13 | |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | +916 | $909 | 100¢ | $914 | +$5 | 06-27 07:33 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +983 | $837 | 86¢ | $850 | +$13 | 06-21 16:42 | |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | +600 | $597 | 100¢ | $599 | +$3 | 06-22 14:37 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | +600 | $560 | 94¢ | $564 | +$4 | 06-22 18:16 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | +500 | $495 | 100¢ | $499 | +$3 | 06-29 12:09 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +430 | $415 | 100¢ | $428 | +$13 | 06-28 06:18 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | +410 | $403 | 100¢ | $410 | +$6 | 06-24 14:20 | |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | No | +337 | $333 | 100¢ | $336 | +$2 | 06-24 01:44 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | +300 | $300 | 100¢ | $300 | $-1 | 06-24 09:11 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | No | -339 | $-283 | 86¢ | $-290 | $-7 | 06-25 13:59 | |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | +300 | $281 | 94¢ | $284 | +$2 | 06-28 09:45 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +291 | $268 | 92¢ | $268 | $-0 | 06-28 16:41 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | No | +255 | $254 | 100¢ | $255 | +$1 | 06-20 12:27 | |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | +240 | $236 | 100¢ | $240 | +$4 | 06-11 15:53 | |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | +217 | $215 | 100¢ | $217 | +$2 | 06-26 05:35 | |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | +200 | $199 | 100¢ | $200 | +$1 | 06-20 19:31 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | +200 | $199 | 100¢ | $200 | +$1 | 06-18 15:08 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +200 | $166 | 90¢ | $181 | +$15 | 06-10 22:07 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | +150 | $148 | 100¢ | $150 | +$1 | 06-25 04:09 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | +145 | $140 | 100¢ | $145 | +$5 | 06-24 15:37 | |
| Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? | No | +130 | $127 | 100¢ | $130 | +$2 | 06-20 19:39 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | -109 | $-108 | 100¢ | $-109 | $-1 | 06-29 14:01 | |
| Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? | No | +107 | $106 | 100¢ | $107 | +$1 | 06-22 05:52 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 23 | $4.8K | 4,377 | 500 | +3,877 | open | — | 06-29 20:47 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 11 | $3.4K | 3,015 | 387 | +2,627 | open | — | 03-04 16:13 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 15 | $2.8K | 3,050 | 0 | +3,050 | open | — | 06-24 11:41 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 58 | $2.8K | 3,168 | 865 | +2,303 | open | — | 04-08 20:37 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 126 | $2.2K | 2,352 | 1,907 | +445 | open | — | 01-31 21:53 |
| will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026 | 13 | $2.1K | 1,005 | 1,105 | -100 | open | — | 06-22 13:15 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 49 | $2.0K | 3,320 | 1,221 | +2,098 | open | — | 03-28 13:52 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 34 | $2.0K | 2,083 | 50 | +2,033 | open | — | 04-28 15:07 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 12 | $1.9K | 1,700 | 517 | +1,183 | open | — | 06-21 16:42 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | 36 | $1.8K | 3,813 | 1,746 | +2,066 | open | — | 04-30 16:41 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 14 | $1.8K | 1,812 | 0 | +1,812 | open | — | 05-24 23:11 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 26 | $1.7K | 1,513 | 270 | +1,243 | open | — | 06-03 21:41 |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | 15 | $1.7K | 1,695 | 0 | +1,695 | open | — | 05-23 22:19 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | 7 | $1.7K | 1,680 | 0 | +1,680 | open | — | 04-30 18:58 |
| us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851 | 9 | $1.6K | 1,629 | 0 | +1,629 | open | — | 06-17 21:01 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | 8 | $1.6K | 1,600 | 0 | +1,600 | open | — | 06-25 22:13 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 67 | $1.5K | 4,760 | 4,754 | +7 | open | — | 04-01 15:39 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 58 | $1.4K | 1,391 | 0 | +1,391 | open | — | 06-20 12:36 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | 12 | $1.3K | 1,371 | 0 | +1,371 | open | — | 06-25 14:51 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | 7 | $1.3K | 800 | 500 | +300 | open | — | 06-17 16:58 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | 12 | $1.3K | 940 | 330 | +610 | open | — | 06-24 14:20 |
| trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219 | 17 | $1.2K | 710 | 556 | +154 | open | — | 06-30 09:23 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | 14 | $1.2K | 1,200 | 0 | +1,200 | open | — | 06-19 09:26 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 9 | $1.2K | 1,176 | 71 | +1,105 | open | — | 04-07 23:46 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 20 | $1.1K | 1,039 | 505 | +534 | open | — | 02-28 21:41 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 7 | $1.1K | 1,000 | 100 | +900 | open | — | 06-17 07:15 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 7 | $1.1K | 1,100 | 0 | +1,100 | open | — | 06-21 13:27 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 27 | $1.0K | 1,093 | 867 | +226 | open | — | 04-07 22:48 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | 14 | $1.0K | 780 | 245 | +535 | open | — | 05-20 14:48 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | 7 | $1.0K | 700 | 309 | +391 | open | — | 06-29 14:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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