Realized P&L (90d)
+$1.17K
Unrealized P&L
+$726
Hit rate
96.1%
Resolved (90d)
1,110
Trades (90d)
4,734
15,031 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$258.8K
$452.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$30
Open exposure
$50.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 10-31 19:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 212 days
Categories
Crypto
42% 86% +$545
Other
38% 83% +$1,353
Politics
18% 78% +$814
Tech
2% 89% +$3
Sports
0% 29% -$20
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 170 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +7,392 $6,987 97¢ $7.2K +$195 10-31 13:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? No +5,968 $5,885 100¢ $6.0K +$74 10-29 11:30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? No +4,500 $4,435 100¢ $4.5K +$58 10-26 01:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +5,105 $4,439 82¢ $4.2K -$227 10-30 00:14
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +3,570 $3,323 94¢ $3.4K +$50 10-31 04:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +3,536 $3,286 94¢ $3.3K +$20 10-29 17:53
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026? No +3,076 $3,009 100¢ $3.1K +$62 10-23 15:29
Trump out as President before 2027? No +2,500 $2,372 97¢ $2.4K +$42 10-25 09:05
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +2,120 $2,040 98¢ $2.1K +$28 09-22 12:13
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,162 $1,940 94¢ $2.0K +$103 10-30 18:23
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +1,900 $1,747 96¢ $1.8K +$67 10-29 15:28
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +1,500 $1,355 94¢ $1.4K +$62 10-29 15:06
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No +1,409 $1,351 99¢ $1.4K +$43 05-13 02:03
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,312 $1,260 99¢ $1.3K +$42 05-11 03:58
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +1,300 $1,294 99¢ $1.3K -$3 10-31 12:17
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +850 $827 97¢ $826 -$1 10-28 18:18
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +850 $790 96¢ $819 +$29 06-28 09:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +726 $677 97¢ $703 +$26 10-31 11:22
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No +630 $572 98¢ $617 +$45 07-01 18:39
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +550 $519 97¢ $536 +$17 09-21 06:10
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1? No +308 $299 97¢ $300 +$1 10-31 18:22
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No +300 $284 96¢ $288 +$4 10-14 16:14
will bitcoin dip to 60k in october 2026 No +200 $196 100¢ $200 +$4 10-05 14:06
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? No +200 $198 100¢ $200 +$1 10-18 06:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +200 $193 97¢ $195 +$2 10-15 01:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No +200 $192 96¢ $192 +$0 10-15 01:58
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No +165 $193 97¢ $160 -$33 10-14 14:29
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +175 $159 90¢ $158 -$1 10-30 18:34
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? No +150 $146 100¢ $150 +$4 10-25 18:23
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +150 $137 100¢ $150 +$13 09-29 16:50