Active-Hypothermia — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.32K

Hit rate

81.3%

Resolved

3,129

Trades

260,610

lifetime

Volume

$11.8M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

$130.2K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 02:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 277 days

Categories

Sports

45% 80% +$14,277

Other

28% 69% +$11,714

Politics

25% 58% +$3,596

Crypto

2% 38% +$1,226

Tech

1% 53% -$480

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 735 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+9,340	$7,634	92¢	$8.5K	+$913	09-14 19:16
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+8,800	$8,564	94¢	$8.3K	-$296	08-10 15:18
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+7,845	$7,562	98¢	$7.7K	+$130	07-30 08:53
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+11,532	$5,891	66¢	$7.6K	+$1,662	10-27 02:42
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+7,553	$6,340	92¢	$7.0K	+$646	09-10 16:03
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+6,912	$6,658	96¢	$6.6K	-$12	09-12 11:05
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	+7,400	$4,530	74¢	$5.4K	+$909	10-21 14:06
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+5,613	$5,389	96¢	$5.4K	+$8	09-11 02:10
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+4,917	$4,749	98¢	$4.8K	+$58	08-24 06:01
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+6,999	$3,520	66¢	$4.7K	+$1,135	10-27 02:11
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+13,012	$6,222	34¢	$4.5K	-$1,733	10-27 02:51
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+4,635	$4,156	96¢	$4.4K	+$287	10-26 18:43
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+4,658	$4,526	94¢	$4.4K	-$149	08-13 09:53
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+3,900	$3,777	98¢	$3.8K	+$45	08-24 08:55
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+4,387	$4,205	86¢	$3.8K	-$412	09-13 00:08
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	+3,744	$3,677	99¢	$3.7K	+$35	08-26 23:55
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+3,636	$3,487	100¢	$3.6K	+$136	09-13 21:01
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Yes	-5,039	-$512	71¢	$-3585	-$3,074	09-26 19:43
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+9,478	$4,975	34¢	$3.3K	-$1,705	10-26 19:51
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	+3,199	$3,150	99¢	$3.2K	+$8	07-03 04:16
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+3,407	$2,764	90¢	$3.1K	+$319	10-25 14:34
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+4,419	$2,676	68¢	$3.0K	+$351	10-26 19:58
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+2,699	$2,585	100¢	$2.7K	+$110	09-13 01:24
2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	+2,695	$2,672	100¢	$2.7K	+$18	07-30 04:09
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+3,109	$2,251	82¢	$2.6K	+$314	10-27 02:49
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+7,028	$3,432	34¢	$2.4K	-$1,007	10-27 02:19
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+2,514	$2,340	95¢	$2.4K	+$55	09-17 11:17
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	+2,400	$2,344	100¢	$2.4K	+$50	07-06 00:28
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	+3,921	$2,695	60¢	$2.4K	-$322	10-27 02:56
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+2,341	$2,133	100¢	$2.3K	+$202	09-29 01:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	278	$122.6K	81,758	86,053	-4,296	No	+$515	06-14 11:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	642	$119.1K	71,552	68,191	+3,361	No	+$576	05-27 12:37
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,115	$110.7K	71,098	65,762	+5,336	No	+$1,952	09-11 15:26
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1,854	$99.1K	96,490	72,794	+23,696	No	+$121	05-14 10:01
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2,177	$93.4K	98,284	84,808	+13,476	No	+$181	05-25 11:56
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2,417	$93.2K	105,221	85,198	+20,022	No	+$4,549	05-28 03:40
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1,060	$90.3K	81,138	57,527	+23,610	No	+$4,534	06-13 16:41
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1,708	$80.9K	86,984	72,546	+14,438	No	+$105	05-11 00:44
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2,294	$79.0K	97,880	86,855	+11,025	No	+$108	05-16 23:43
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	715	$78.6K	181,097	120,259	+60,838	No	+$151	07-12 10:24
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	770	$73.4K	100,926	22,397	+78,529	No	+$59	09-03 13:00
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	908	$69.6K	78,182	54,401	+23,780	Yes	-$8,224	06-13 16:21
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	927	$67.9K	64,402	51,293	+13,109	Yes	-$618	05-09 17:47
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	5,982	$64.3K	296,097	272,464	+23,633	No	-$626	05-04 18:32
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	991	$63.0K	44,180	39,450	+4,730	No	+$173	05-16 19:17
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	674	$62.9K	35,612	31,448	+4,164	No	+$125	05-17 02:23
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2,161	$60.6K	81,360	71,720	+9,639	No	+$26	05-01 07:18
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1,070	$60.5K	59,694	49,851	+9,843	No	+$5,856	07-19 20:02
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,016	$58.9K	60,842	50,122	+10,720	No	+$10,693	10-25 18:10
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	1,115	$57.2K	72,886	42,463	+30,423	Yes	+$1,088	02-02 06:10
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	513	$55.8K	43,453	33,788	+9,665	No	+$768	07-18 19:43
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1,427	$55.7K	68,835	36,780	+32,055	No	+$393	05-09 16:38
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	865	$55.4K	75,657	42,487	+33,170	No	+$397	02-03 13:53
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1,605	$46.8K	61,276	32,174	+29,102	No	+$54	03-17 14:17
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	511	$46.7K	36,182	24,576	+11,606	No	+$760	07-11 14:55
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	468	$44.5K	25,053	35,753	-10,699	No	+$146	08-26 11:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	380	$43.8K	30,490	28,474	+2,016	No	+$151	04-28 03:20
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	609	$43.7K	36,488	30,082	+6,406	No	+$257	05-08 08:12
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	764	$43.1K	31,038	35,069	-4,031	No	+$1,700	10-26 04:06
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1,479	$43.0K	28,115	25,798	+2,317	No	+$215	07-16 07:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:56:56	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	85	60¢	$51	0x7e1c73…
10-27 02:56:11	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	196	54¢	$106	0x8fa7f3…
10-27 02:55:54	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	94	5¢	$5	0x23ff18…
10-27 02:51:39	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa54872…
10-27 02:50:35	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	91	5¢	$5	0xa2910d…
10-27 02:49:54	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0x7f0fd9…
10-27 02:47:41	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	69	26¢	$18	0xfb6d3d…
10-27 02:47:41	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0xba4423…
10-27 02:47:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xf4b9d4…
10-27 02:46:44	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x586cd6…
10-27 02:46:27	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x5db100…
10-27 02:46:14	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	36	21¢	$8	0x9d1288…
10-27 02:42:59	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x37b6ec…
10-27 02:40:50	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0x71ee1a…
10-27 02:40:44	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	122	83¢	$101	0x310e89…
10-27 02:40:41	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	299	80¢	$239	0xdec12f…
10-27 02:40:35	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x37f5e0…
10-27 02:40:20	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$5	0xdff19f…
10-27 02:39:53	Will the San Antonio Spurs be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xa04eef…
10-27 02:39:53	Will the San Antonio Spurs be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x9e0d46…
10-27 02:38:23	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xc6d498…
10-27 02:36:45	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe9e7eb…
10-27 02:33:53	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xb98074…
10-27 02:33:47	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x604128…
10-27 02:31:15	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	40	27¢	$11	0x56b896…
10-27 02:31:03	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xbf6020…
10-27 02:25:38	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	106	0¢	$0	0xd282d4…
10-27 02:25:36	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	94	0¢	$0	0xab300e…
10-27 02:25:29	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x2c8f20…
10-27 02:23:57	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	75	60¢	$45	0x4aa8df…
10-27 02:19:54	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	300	35¢	$105	0x906762…
10-27 02:19:08	Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	400	2¢	$9	0x127e28…
10-27 02:17:08	Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	SELL	250	4¢	$11	0x593494…
10-27 02:11:12	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xbdd9da…
10-27 02:03:17	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x94f107…
10-27 02:00:12	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x2e72d7…
10-27 02:00:11	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x757e0e…
10-27 01:57:03	Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$171	0x9c5297…
10-27 01:57:02	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xf97ab7…
10-27 01:57:02	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x6ea032…
10-27 01:57:02	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	60	22¢	$13	0x459f3e…
10-27 01:56:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	92	45¢	$41	0x315094…
10-27 01:48:30	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xb436eb…
10-27 01:48:18	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	48	23¢	$11	0xe1ebbb…
10-27 01:44:03	Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?	No	BUY	171	46¢	$79	0x3157fb…
10-27 01:35:38	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xd39a34…
10-27 01:32:36	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	47	34¢	$16	0xca38ea…
10-27 01:27:29	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	187	16¢	$30	0x811b9e…
10-27 01:24:27	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	BUY	76	12¢	$9	0x1d5b62…
10-27 01:16:02	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0xaf855b…
10-27 01:12:51	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$139	0x3ade7f…
10-27 01:09:23	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	288	79¢	$227	0xf14cd0…
10-27 01:08:00	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0x7e99f3…
10-27 01:06:27	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	213	28¢	$60	0xb47c23…
10-27 01:06:27	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	213	72¢	$153	0x9a77a8…
10-27 01:05:36	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	300	83¢	$249	0xa5b059…
10-27 00:59:09	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	69	40¢	$28	0xf72c98…
10-27 00:57:32	Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	300	93¢	$280	0x33b903…
10-27 00:48:44	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	95	18¢	$17	0x6f68f5…
10-27 00:48:44	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	126	82¢	$104	0x63060a…
10-27 00:48:44	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	31	18¢	$6	0x585f15…
10-27 00:42:38	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	51	81¢	$41	0x04bf55…
10-27 00:41:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	108	46¢	$50	0x9768d1…
10-27 00:39:59	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x5b7dea…
10-27 00:38:42	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0xeb1a6f…
10-27 00:35:42	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	23	10¢	$2	0x987f94…
10-27 00:33:36	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	42	84¢	$35	0xc30dec…
10-27 00:30:24	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xab37e0…
10-27 00:22:09	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0xc0387d…
10-27 00:21:02	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	14	82¢	$11	0xa2096c…
10-27 00:20:41	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	45	39¢	$18	0x9dcc3d…
10-27 00:17:26	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0xccb202…
10-27 00:16:00	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xdbab3d…
10-27 00:14:59	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x8fa962…
10-27 00:14:57	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xe1efcb…
10-27 00:14:21	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x68e38e…
10-27 00:14:11	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xe5b3ab…
10-27 00:12:02	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xd86f71…
10-27 00:12:02	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x115884…
10-27 00:09:17	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	43	65¢	$28	0xad9f51…
10-27 00:09:17	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	24	81¢	$19	0x5a003b…
10-27 00:07:56	Will the Charlotte Hornets be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?	Yes	SELL	106	1¢	$1	0xa5cde7…
10-27 00:02:11	Will the Indiana Pacers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?	Yes	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x4b4e54…
10-27 00:00:27	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	158	84¢	$133	0x177ef2…
10-26 23:59:42	Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	BUY	28	14¢	$4	0x80de82…
10-26 23:59:42	Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	BUY	42	14¢	$6	0x26c8d9…
10-26 23:50:06	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xcd8fe3…
10-26 23:49:05	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x0f57d4…
10-26 23:48:45	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x0e5b6f…
10-26 23:46:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	23¢	$13	0xee2e40…
10-26 23:39:39	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x4b9d82…
10-26 23:38:23	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	79	81¢	$64	0x5107f7…
10-26 23:30:12	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	102	81¢	$82	0xf42278…
10-26 23:30:12	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xa010d5…
10-26 23:25:47	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0xbd8dee…
10-26 23:16:32	Will a team from LCS (North America) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	3¢	$4	0x1abb65…
10-26 23:15:15	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	45	81¢	$36	0x714869…
10-26 23:13:59	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	14	27¢	$4	0x2bfb7f…
10-26 23:09:45	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0x02283d…
10-26 23:04:48	Will LOS win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	0¢	$1	0x58e4f5…