Simplistic-Jellyfish — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$485

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

587

lifetime

Volume

$524.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$894

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-11 10:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

61% 100% +$210

Politics

27% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

3% 75% +$275

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	13	$24.5K	12,484	12,484	+0	open	—	06-20 14:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	9	$23.0K	13,339	10,139	+3,200	open	—	04-14 01:33
trump out as president by march 31	49	$19.5K	9,900	9,815	+85	open	—	03-24 09:25
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	12	$19.1K	10,300	10,300	+0	open	—	06-29 17:12
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	6	$17.9K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	07-08 08:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$12.1K	12,000	2,000	+10,000	open	—	07-15 05:42
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	10	$12.1K	3,000	10,000	-7,000	open	—	07-20 16:17
Trump out as President before 2027?	3	$12.1K	3,000	10,000	-7,000	open	—	08-10 14:00
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	10	$10.0K	4,970	6,000	-1,030	open	—	08-01 13:52
Netanyahu out by June 30?	5	$9.7K	9,795	0	+9,795	open	—	06-22 07:58
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$9.5K	0	10,000	-10,000	open	—	07-08 07:48
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$9.4K	0	10,000	-10,000	open	—	07-08 07:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$9.3K	0	10,000	-10,000	open	—	07-08 07:51
will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	9	$9.2K	6,140	3,139	+3,000	open	—	07-23 12:28
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$9.1K	0	10,000	-10,000	open	—	07-21 11:46
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$8.9K	9,000	0	+9,000	open	—	07-08 07:27
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	3	$8.9K	6,057	3,057	+3,000	open	—	07-25 16:14
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$8.6K	6,000	3,000	+3,000	open	—	07-25 16:15
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	3	$8.4K	0	10,000	-10,000	open	—	06-20 07:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$7.8K	9,000	0	+9,000	open	—	06-20 14:55
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	9	$7.8K	9,160	2,300	+6,860	open	—	07-20 14:38
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	16	$7.5K	7,774	0	+7,774	open	—	01-07 03:16
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	2	$7.0K	4,500	4,000	+500	open	—	07-23 12:25
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?	4	$7.0K	7,620	0	+7,620	open	—	01-12 03:52
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?	2	$6.6K	7,913	0	+7,913	open	—	01-03 11:13
will wti dip to 50 in june 2026 932 595 332	1	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	06-20 14:43
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	2	$6.0K	3,000	2,980	+20	Thunder	+$24	05-12 06:00
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$5.8K	5,887	0	+5,887	open	—	01-03 11:39
will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	4	$5.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	08-08 12:03
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	6	$5.2K	5,294	0	+5,294	open	—	07-19 11:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 10:03:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 15 20260810150912478	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xe63ce8…
08-11 10:01:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x529a0e…
08-11 10:01:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$290	0xeacc6c…
08-11 06:24:51	will wti dip to 60 in august 2026	No	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x754a25…
08-11 06:23:36	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	600	99¢	$593	0xe4c6e9…
08-11 06:19:48	will wti dip to 60 in august 2026	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xbc28ea…
08-11 06:18:45	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	300	99¢	$296	0x91785a…
08-11 03:08:43	will spy reach 800 in august 2026	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xca0f93…
08-10 14:28:09	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0xa7470a…
08-10 14:12:13	will wti dip to 60 in august 2026	No	BUY	600	97¢	$581	0x3de89b…
08-10 14:10:13	will spy dip to 700 in august 2026	No	BUY	330	98¢	$323	0x0a5b7d…
08-10 14:09:40	will spy dip to 710 in august 2026	No	BUY	600	95¢	$570	0xc9e80c…
08-10 14:06:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x99196b…
08-10 14:05:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x4b0823…
08-10 14:05:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	400	99¢	$395	0x854742…
08-10 14:03:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	300	84¢	$252	0xeb219a…
08-10 14:00:34	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	93¢	$2,790	0xbfabb3…
08-10 13:36:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x32afba…
08-10 03:46:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	600	99¢	$593	0x09e3f4…
08-08 14:58:13	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0xb720d2…
08-08 14:57:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	600	98¢	$589	0xb6b43e…
08-08 14:54:58	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	153	99¢	$152	0xf5e354…
08-08 14:52:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,000	84¢	$2,520	0x6ff16a…
08-08 12:03:43	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	SELL	2,484	97¢	$2,412	0xf1e243…
08-08 12:01:10	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x53e69e…
08-08 11:50:30	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	SELL	501	97¢	$487	0x32873d…
08-08 08:08:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	600	83¢	$498	0xc65c85…
08-08 08:07:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0x08f4b0…
08-08 08:07:03	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0xc1cd08…
08-08 08:06:12	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	83	95¢	$79	0xfe4812…
08-08 08:06:12	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	517	95¢	$493	0xde1260…
08-08 08:05:34	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	572	99¢	$567	0xb2c10a…
08-08 08:05:33	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xc8ee49…
08-08 08:04:40	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	300	92¢	$277	0xa94931…
08-08 04:12:01	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	3,000	94¢	$2,820	0x32f575…
08-08 04:04:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x57326d…
08-08 04:00:21	will bitcoin dip to 50k in august 2026	No	BUY	1,175	98¢	$1,147	0x4cbd77…
08-08 03:59:31	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,947	0xc35576…
08-08 03:56:25	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	260	98¢	$254	0xf6859e…
08-08 03:54:51	will wti reach 110 in august 2026	No	BUY	247	96¢	$237	0x287ef6…
08-08 03:24:33	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	600	77¢	$462	0xdb16bd…
08-08 03:23:51	will wti reach 120 in august 2026	No	BUY	185	99¢	$183	0xf0eee8…
08-08 03:23:03	will wti reach 130 in august 2026	No	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x83998e…
08-08 03:22:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	600	90¢	$540	0xb334ab…
08-08 02:15:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,974	0xe8c9d0…
08-08 02:15:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0x5427a7…
08-06 17:36:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0xc69688…
08-06 17:34:06	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	BUY	3,000	97¢	$2,905	0x9a6dfc…
08-04 12:40:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x0d87c2…
08-04 12:38:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,985	0x772afe…
08-03 13:24:54	bitcoin above 58k on august 4 2026	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,987	0x208230…
08-02 04:35:45	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	105	90¢	$94	0xefeec3…
08-02 04:35:41	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x8d2522…
08-02 04:35:03	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	575	96¢	$552	0x236396…
08-02 04:33:47	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	175	90¢	$158	0xb2128d…
08-02 04:33:44	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x7e13b8…
08-02 04:31:45	will spy reach 790 in august 2026	No	BUY	110	93¢	$103	0xbd2418…
08-02 04:29:41	will bitcoin dip to 45k in august 2026	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$980	0xe3e88d…
08-02 04:29:05	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$971	0x0d60e7…
08-02 04:27:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	3,000	97¢	$2,920	0xaf68e5…
08-02 04:26:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,962	0x33a687…
08-02 04:25:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	1,600	100¢	$1,597	0x745d8f…
08-01 15:24:21	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4ab2c7…
08-01 13:54:06	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,976	0x1509cf…
08-01 13:52:32	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,500	93¢	$1,395	0xcb8198…
08-01 13:49:42	will bitcoin dip to 50k in august 2026	No	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x992df6…
08-01 13:47:39	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	No	BUY	801	91¢	$729	0x094a02…
08-01 13:46:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	941	91¢	$861	0x2d3ac0…
08-01 13:45:26	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0x630c30…
08-01 13:37:11	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	1,039	96¢	$995	0x927585…
08-01 13:32:06	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	600	78¢	$468	0xf69daf…
08-01 13:31:05	will bitcoin dip to 50k in august 2026	No	BUY	586	96¢	$563	0xf9c899…
08-01 13:30:35	will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	No	BUY	500	95¢	$474	0x63c2ed…
08-01 13:25:02	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	990	81¢	$802	0x87b52a…
08-01 13:24:38	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	617	96¢	$590	0x52cca8…
08-01 13:22:33	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$959	0x51c0a0…
08-01 13:21:32	china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	No	BUY	3,000	74¢	$2,218	0x5ced3e…
08-01 13:17:15	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$964	0x532dee…
08-01 13:16:59	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	BUY	3,000	90¢	$2,700	0x1bba4f…
08-01 13:15:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,465	85¢	$2,095	0xfcbb94…
08-01 12:51:38	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	1,225	96¢	$1,176	0x0e8d45…
08-01 12:50:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	3,000	97¢	$2,910	0xdfd2aa…
08-01 12:49:17	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$964	0x92ab21…
08-01 12:37:39	will wti reach 120 in august 2026	No	BUY	270	96¢	$260	0x88b40c…
08-01 12:08:54	will iran target ukraine by august 31 2026 20260727234956917	No	BUY	600	96¢	$578	0x9aeade…
08-01 12:03:54	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	800	95¢	$763	0xcda9f4…
08-01 11:56:14	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x11d865…
08-01 11:22:53	will wti reach 130 in august 2026	No	BUY	600	98¢	$588	0x5ceccc…
08-01 11:22:02	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	600	95¢	$570	0x5219ea…
08-01 11:21:14	will wti reach 120 in august 2026	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x09ba84…
08-01 11:20:09	will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	No	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0xc2bff5…
08-01 11:19:39	will bitcoin dip to 50k in august 2026	No	BUY	600	96¢	$579	0x36a527…
08-01 11:17:54	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x885b2c…
08-01 11:09:36	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,967	0xa470a0…
08-01 11:07:48	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x0f2037…
08-01 11:06:59	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$963	0x207d2f…
08-01 11:06:06	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	No	BUY	600	91¢	$546	0xfc25a4…
08-01 11:05:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	300	90¢	$271	0x885cdf…
08-01 11:04:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0xc0d4cb…
08-01 11:04:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x81d0de…