Realized P&L
-$12.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.91K
Hit rate
82.6%
Resolved
740
Trades
5,918
lifetime
Volume
$1.65M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$278
Open exposure
$33.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-20
last 10-30 02:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 183 days
Categories
Politics
51% 76% -$30,188
Other
34% 76% +$9,713
Crypto
9% 89% +$3,491
Sports
3% 78% +$195
Tech
3% 87% +$4,668
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +3,800 $3,478 82¢ $3.1K -$343 10-03 00:47
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +2,000 $1,884 100¢ $2.0K +$106 10-29 17:16
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +2,000 $1,660 94¢ $1.9K +$230 08-30 21:57
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No +1,500 $1,342 98¢ $1.5K +$124 10-07 16:06
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +1,500 $1,395 97¢ $1.5K +$61 10-30 01:55
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +1,500 $1,412 97¢ $1.5K +$44 10-11 23:15
Trump out as President before 2027? No +1,400 $1,294 96¢ $1.3K +$52 07-11 18:56
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1,500 $1,195 86¢ $1.3K +$88 10-28 18:02
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +1,200 $1,144 97¢ $1.2K +$22 10-22 01:13
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +1,201 $1,124 95¢ $1.1K +$17 07-21 17:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +1,000 $980 99¢ $994 +$14 10-29 17:38
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +1,000 $653 99¢ $989 +$336 10-06 01:48
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -1,000 -$969 99¢ $-987 -$18 10-28 12:30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +1,000 $926 98¢ $978 +$52 10-13 23:41
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +1,001 $932 97¢ $972 +$40 10-07 22:43
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -1,004 -$1,094 97¢ $-971 +$123 10-23 22:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +1,000 $909 96¢ $964 +$55 09-14 01:43
will russia invade a nato country by december 31 2026 No +1,000 $934 96¢ $960 +$26 09-11 09:53
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $902 94¢ $944 +$42 09-08 18:56
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +1,001 $897 94¢ $936 +$39 09-26 06:10
US recession by end of 2026? No +1,000 $877 94¢ $935 +$58 10-15 18:41
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +1,000 $877 94¢ $935 +$58 10-29 12:36
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +1,000 $906 92¢ $925 +$19 09-25 14:28
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +1,000 $813 86¢ $858 +$45 08-27 08:00
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +901 $789 94¢ $842 +$54 09-21 09:11
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +1,000 $879 84¢ $837 -$42 10-10 19:15
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +800 $673 89¢ $712 +$39 10-29 06:54
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +700 $470 90¢ $626 +$156 10-07 19:56
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +1,000 $285 58¢ $585 +$301 10-29 09:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +600 $471 97¢ $582 +$111 10-19 10:48