Rusty-Canoe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.19K

Hit rate

93.7%

Resolved

Trades

371

lifetime

Volume

$146.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$396

Open exposure

$31.8K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-21 22:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Politics

66% 67% +$17,196

Other

18% 33% +$1,146

Crypto

14% 0% -$469

Tech

2% 33% +$749

Sports

0% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+19,049	$14,663	82¢	$15.5K	+$862	05-14 03:28
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+10,003	$8,277	90¢	$9.1K	+$776	09-10 00:36
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,000	$2,160	84¢	$2.5K	+$375	09-19 13:06
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	-1,740	-$1,496	97¢	$-1686	-$190	05-05 03:54
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	+1,660	$960	80¢	$1.3K	+$377	09-10 17:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7,000	$3,940	16¢	$1.2K	-$2,785	09-09 13:26
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+11,345	$1,523	4¢	$471	-$1,052	09-17 15:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+4,818	$612	1¢	$58	-$554	10-21 22:36
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by june 30 2027	Yes	+10	$5	53¢	$5	+$0	08-18 21:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	38	$44.3K	21,212	35,430	-14,217	Yes	+$11,683	05-09 15:14
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	19	$19.8K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	06-15 21:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$14.7K	19,049	0	+19,049	open	—	05-14 03:28
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	14	$14.6K	9,078	9,078	+0	No	+$84	06-16 23:10
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	19	$10.8K	7,520	7,520	+0	Yes	+$2,695	06-18 20:10
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	57	$8.5K	9,820	0	+9,820	Yes	+$1,326	06-22 02:11
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	3	$8.3K	10,003	0	+10,003	open	—	09-10 00:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	73	$5.3K	10,000	3,000	+7,000	open	—	09-09 13:26
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	12	$3.0K	5,719	0	+5,719	No	+$2,709	07-16 03:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$2.9K	4,348	4,348	+0	No	-$1,130	09-13 23:47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.2K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	09-19 13:06
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	26	$1.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$507	09-02 15:50
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	6	$1.5K	11,345	0	+11,345	open	—	09-17 15:11
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	1	$1.5K	0	1,740	-1,740	open	—	05-05 03:54
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	10	$1.2K	1,821	162	+1,660	open	—	09-10 17:27
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$940	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	+$1,060	08-17 17:54
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	11	$909	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	09-10 18:26
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	8	$884	1,568	1,568	+0	open	—	09-10 19:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	11	$837	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	09-09 15:34
Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$700	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	+$1,300	09-02 14:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	5	$625	4,865	47	+4,818	open	—	10-21 22:36
will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	3	$365	500	500	-0	Yes	-$185	08-21 13:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$292	735	735	+0	No	+$2	01-10 18:32
will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	1	$284	473	0	+473	Yes	-$284	08-20 15:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$245	180	180	+0	Yes	+$86	06-15 00:00
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$210	111	111	+0	No	+$10	05-30 00:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	16	$122	11,111	11,111	+0	No	-$78	05-27 07:10
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$92	80	80	+0	Yes	-$2	01-09 00:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$87	16,666	16,666	+0	No	-$13	06-18 02:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$87	138	138	+0	Yes	-$63	02-28 20:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 22:36:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,435	3¢	$40	0x636ec5…
10-21 22:36:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x6829e0…
09-21 20:42:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,400	7¢	$98	0x51e4f1…
09-19 13:06:38	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	72¢	$2,160	0xf5ed70…
09-17 15:11:55	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,600	9¢	$506	0xef8105…
09-15 02:49:24	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	18¢	$450	0x346c7e…
09-15 02:48:06	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0x02ebc5…
09-13 23:47:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,348	20¢	$870	0xd639a5…
09-10 19:22:27	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	599	15¢	$90	0x125cf3…
09-10 19:21:18	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xdfb37e…
09-10 19:18:09	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xf56d21…
09-10 19:18:09	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	15¢	$4	0xb85003…
09-10 18:27:46	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	115	15¢	$17	0x0a14ed…
09-10 18:26:09	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	475	10¢	$48	0xa71505…
09-10 18:24:34	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x7c513f…
09-10 18:21:00	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x94a3ce…
09-10 18:21:00	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	950	10¢	$95	0x1f0a22…
09-10 18:20:54	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	824	10¢	$82	0xe05b63…
09-10 18:16:57	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	420	15¢	$63	0x15ef56…
09-10 18:08:25	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	382	17¢	$63	0xbd2967…
09-10 18:07:54	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	51	10¢	$5	0x08a768…
09-10 17:27:04	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0x4f807e…
09-10 15:59:22	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,568	41¢	$643	0x616ba1…
09-10 13:14:16	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	800	19¢	$152	0x1bbc3c…
09-10 02:15:52	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	941	33¢	$310	0xfa36fc…
09-10 01:31:48	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	33	75¢	$25	0xea3bd3…
09-10 01:22:07	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xc19fdd…
09-10 01:20:42	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0x84e690…
09-10 01:19:28	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	600	31¢	$186	0xec389c…
09-10 00:36:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,348	46¢	$2,000	0x9aaa05…
09-10 00:36:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	5,747	87¢	$5,000	0x617405…
09-09 15:34:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	37¢	$373	0x4cee2c…
09-09 13:26:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	22¢	$220	0x40d7e0…
09-09 13:26:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	22¢	$440	0xdfad69…
09-08 03:32:33	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xa73a86…
09-06 20:55:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,570	16¢	$251	0x35205f…
09-06 15:50:27	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	51	75¢	$38	0x4da758…
09-05 18:04:49	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	SELL	56	75¢	$42	0x9a59d9…
09-02 15:50:42	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,007	30¢	$302	0xa028ac…
09-02 14:42:13	Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	35¢	$700	0xdef6b8…
09-02 13:02:15	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0x3d46ac…
09-02 12:59:37	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	293	30¢	$88	0xbb0a0d…
08-26 22:57:37	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	15¢	$26	0x15f7b2…
08-26 09:45:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x4e4f62…
08-24 18:56:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x71e5e5…
08-23 14:21:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	40¢	$24	0x4a66b4…
08-22 08:48:22	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xce729e…
08-21 15:50:27	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	44	40¢	$18	0x9cf39e…
08-21 15:09:42	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x2ad2e1…
08-21 15:01:07	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	47	40¢	$19	0x8cc89c…
08-21 13:19:04	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	SELL	500	18¢	$90	0xebf512…
08-21 00:35:45	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	851	0¢	$1	0x316648…
08-20 17:37:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x2442d4…
08-20 17:02:00	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	48	0¢	$0	0x6168fa…
08-20 15:04:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0x0093d2…
08-20 15:01:16	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	473	60¢	$284	0x427f4f…
08-20 14:36:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	1,568	0¢	$5	0x5552c5…
08-20 03:32:03	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	47	55¢	$26	0xc5e48b…
08-20 03:28:13	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	453	55¢	$249	0x47b7b4…
08-19 23:10:52	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	1,903	2¢	$38	0x48c000…
08-19 22:19:06	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	21¢	$103	0xfe29d5…
08-19 22:18:49	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x2d9686…
08-19 22:17:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	412	2¢	$8	0x79f125…
08-19 22:17:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	179	2¢	$4	0x195d6b…
08-19 21:36:39	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x36e876…
08-19 21:35:55	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	769	48¢	$369	0x354619…
08-19 18:17:48	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0x61cf80…
08-18 21:31:22	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa99eba…
08-17 17:55:43	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0xe3b9a7…
08-17 17:54:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	47¢	$940	0x926fb2…
08-10 07:30:28	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	53¢	$17	0xb16e18…
08-10 07:30:24	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	53¢	$265	0x85d13e…
08-10 07:10:37	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x020c2a…
08-10 07:07:19	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xf2c8fd…
08-10 07:02:51	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0b1ee6…
08-10 07:00:27	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xbd90d5…
08-10 06:56:34	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x78bd75…
08-10 06:55:31	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xd41c0d…
08-10 06:55:31	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x1d2c89…
08-10 06:52:15	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf2a8e2…
08-10 06:51:19	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xfb8cb6…
08-10 06:51:01	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xffd662…
08-10 06:49:04	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6aede3…
08-10 06:44:09	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x40fd85…
08-10 06:39:28	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xe40a46…
08-10 06:38:12	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xff1045…
08-10 06:35:01	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2cccfe…
08-10 06:28:16	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x30fab9…
08-10 06:27:33	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xcbfbde…
08-10 06:25:31	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x4c3fd5…
08-10 06:18:51	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x873bf3…
08-10 06:01:52	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,400	53¢	$742	0x2e9d7c…
08-07 18:00:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	256	77¢	$197	0x1ddd7b…
08-07 17:59:16	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	4,000	77¢	$3,080	0xa46904…
08-04 21:27:33	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	92	60¢	$56	0x5ab157…
08-04 15:27:32	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	1,471	62¢	$909	0x85e305…
08-04 15:25:36	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x53e7ac…
08-03 22:11:29	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa2df07…
08-03 22:11:24	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	253	45¢	$114	0x8a82b7…
08-02 19:47:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	14¢	$7	0x701efe…