Realized P&L
+$256.0K
Unrealized P&L
-$4.02K
Hit rate
70.1%
Resolved
762
Trades
37,885
lifetime
Volume
$16.0M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$421
Open exposure
$410.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-28
last 10-30 02:24
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 181 days
Categories
Politics
67%
64%
+$431,121
Other
29%
55%
-$247,856
Sports
2%
80%
+$32,408
Crypto
1%
83%
+$30,374
Tech
1%
80%
+$6,244
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$3,699
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1110 trades/day
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 277 | $507.4K | 292,856 | 278,248 | +14,608 | Yes | +$340 | 04-08 21:40 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 207 | $404.9K | 251,394 | 232,337 | +19,057 | open | — | 10-22 04:51 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 113 | $368.4K | 220,306 | 162,003 | +58,302 | No | +$2,898 | 06-26 03:34 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 604 | $366.5K | 763,822 | 769,347 | -5,525 | No | -$54,769 | 05-30 00:18 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 565 | $355.3K | 183,488 | 187,355 | -3,866 | Yes | -$587 | 05-06 10:41 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 545 | $308.0K | 1,285,944 | 974,057 | +311,886 | Yes | +$240,519 | 06-14 23:55 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 380 | $265.4K | 357,505 | 301,855 | +55,650 | No | -$42,652 | 07-07 02:38 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 262 | $235.6K | 158,127 | 86,379 | +71,748 | No | +$1,898 | 03-03 22:40 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | 218 | $205.3K | 149,729 | 149,729 | +0 | Yes | +$23,376 | 06-14 21:30 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 265 | $187.4K | 154,954 | 55,000 | +99,954 | No | +$4,784 | 06-23 22:06 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31 | 86 | $187.0K | 97,721 | 97,721 | +0 | No | +$3,706 | 08-08 15:21 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 91 | $185.7K | 100,656 | 101,164 | -508 | No | +$8,068 | 05-26 23:06 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 4,601 | $181.9K | 92,371 | 93,416 | -1,045 | No | +$3,075 | 04-01 08:14 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 63 | $181.7K | 101,000 | 101,000 | +0 | open | — | 10-29 17:54 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 133 | $177.3K | 287,188 | 263,077 | +24,111 | Yes | +$101,411 | 04-24 19:48 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 196 | $172.0K | 94,851 | 79,542 | +15,310 | No | +$1,098 | 07-28 21:00 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 193 | $168.9K | 121,682 | 55,203 | +66,479 | Yes | +$2,460 | 03-16 15:52 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | 454 | $149.9K | 188,074 | 188,084 | -10 | No | -$9,566 | 06-19 23:14 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 233 | $146.7K | 109,434 | 59,497 | +49,938 | open | — | 10-25 14:06 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 48 | $141.4K | 134,306 | 136,190 | -1,884 | Yes | +$69,000 | 04-09 14:52 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | 115 | $134.7K | 75,195 | 86,195 | -11,000 | Yes | +$11,027 | 04-21 18:51 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 66 | $127.4K | 71,602 | 71,602 | +0 | No | +$6,928 | 05-23 21:15 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 397 | $126.7K | 283,390 | 78,229 | +205,160 | Yes | +$129,947 | 06-14 21:06 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 17 | $124.2K | 63,000 | 66,000 | -3,000 | No | +$2,641 | 04-17 21:13 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 114 | $119.5K | 82,646 | 62,312 | +20,334 | Yes | +$2,993 | 03-13 18:23 |
| will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show | 79 | $114.2K | 69,616 | 72,616 | -3,000 | Yes | +$11,317 | 02-11 19:57 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15 | 34 | $110.8K | 64,459 | 50,000 | +14,459 | No | +$3,427 | 04-14 22:08 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 447 | $109.4K | 424,925 | 431,070 | -6,145 | No | -$82,486 | 05-30 13:00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 186 | $107.3K | 382,334 | 368,364 | +13,970 | No | -$31,143 | 05-26 23:01 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | 105 | $100.1K | 62,664 | 57,965 | +4,700 | open | — | 10-19 15:52 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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